2019年度投資策略守得云開

1、：證監(jiān)許可（20目錄前言：守得云開.....................................................................................................................................................5一、全球宏觀和大類資產(chǎn)配置——波動率沖擊后避險資產(chǎn)的回歸.........................

2、..................................................6（一）2018，波動率抬升與周期分化背后的緊縮機制.................................................6（二）2019，波動率的傳導(dǎo)下從分化到共振.........................................................6（三）2019年大類資產(chǎn)配置的

3、展望——利率波動率沖擊后避險資產(chǎn)的回歸..............................9二、中國經(jīng)濟周期判斷——尋底之旅的波折.........................................................................................................10（一）經(jīng)濟周期的定位——量價齊跌下的庫存周期下行中后段.................

4、.......................10（二）經(jīng)濟周期的展望——探索觸底后的回升動力..................................................12（三）2019年的經(jīng)濟周期運行——“守”的耐心，“開”的必然..........................................14三、A股市場研判——隱忍以靜，蓄勢而動............................

5、.............................................................................15（一）庫存周期量價齊跌階段的市場表現(xiàn)..........................................................15（二）美元指數(shù)情景分析與A股指數(shù)方向判斷...........................................

6、..........16（三）2019年A股市場的節(jié)奏與風(fēng)險收益比......................................................17（四）市場風(fēng)格與因子選擇：成長風(fēng)格、業(yè)績因子占優(yōu)，動量因子反轉(zhuǎn)................................19四、行業(yè)配置——逆周期的堅守，早周期的回歸.............................................

7、.....................................................20（一）周期定位與行業(yè)配置——上半場逆周期的堅守，下半場早周期的回歸............................20（二）從“PBROE”與“資產(chǎn)負債率資本開支比率”框架看2019年行業(yè)配置方向..........................20五、主題投資：堅守新時代改革主線下的“六朵金花”...........

8、.............................................................................................22（一）“為有源頭活水來”——資本市場制度改革：券商“搭臺”，優(yōu)質(zhì)次新“唱戲”，高股息“攻守兼?zhèn)洹?.............22（二）“放水養(yǎng)魚”——稅制改革：哪些行業(yè)在“減稅降費”中最為受益.............................

9、.....23（三）“改革中心”——國企改革：“雙百行動”19年或“星火燎原”.............................................................................24（四）“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略下的基建“穩(wěn)增長”..................................................................................

10、...................................25（五）軍品定價改革——為軍工“核心資產(chǎn)”業(yè)績騰飛注入新動力......................................25（六）5G技術(shù)革新帶來的“自主可控”................................................................................................

11、...........................26風(fēng)險提示..............................................................................................................................................................27：證監(jiān)許可（20圖表33上證綜指的估值與盈利貢獻...

12、..............................................................18圖表34A股盈利增速、ROE和估值走勢（標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化）..................................................18圖表35上市公司經(jīng)營現(xiàn)金流周期領(lǐng)先于盈利周期.....................................................18圖表3

13、6業(yè)績因子與盈利增速.......................................................................19圖表37市值因子與ROE.............................................................................................................................

14、.................................19圖表38行業(yè)動量指數(shù)與經(jīng)濟短周期.................................................................19圖表392019年行業(yè)配置..........................................................................20圖表40超配行業(yè)PBROE

15、動態(tài)圖...................................................................21圖表41低配行業(yè)PBROE動態(tài)圖...................................................................21圖表42行業(yè)資產(chǎn)負債率與資本開支水位.............................................

16、................21圖表43回購個股EPS變化........................................................................23圖表44回購個股與全部A股ROE變化.............................................................23圖表45增值稅下3%與社保實繳的綜合影響（占利潤總額比例）.....

17、...................................24圖表46200618發(fā)展歷程中，特高壓每年開工數(shù)目....................................................25圖表47特高壓線路計劃投資額.....................................................................25圖表48中國5G投資建設(shè)增速或超4G.

18、............................................................................................................................26圖表495G產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈及高技術(shù)壁壘的核心環(huán)節(jié)..........................................................26圖表50未來以5G為核心的大