銀行業(yè)三季度資產(chǎn)負(fù)債結(jié)構(gòu)分析（上市）低風(fēng)險(xiǎn)偏好持續(xù)

1、行業(yè)深度研究2請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分一、生息資產(chǎn)：貸款繼續(xù)拉動(dòng)生息資產(chǎn)環(huán)比高增，地方債配置增多?三季度生息資產(chǎn)環(huán)比高增，主要是貸款拉動(dòng)；較二季度增速進(jìn)一步提升，則是債券投資和同業(yè)資產(chǎn)在本季度增加較多，3Q18生息資產(chǎn)規(guī)模環(huán)比增長2.1%，較二季度增速提升0.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。1、貸款保持高增，但增速較二季度有所放緩，環(huán)比增長2.8%。2、債券投資、同業(yè)資產(chǎn)均較二季度規(guī)模增速提升較多，預(yù)計(jì)主要為地方債增配以及流動(dòng)性寬松下，大行資金融出

2、增多，分別環(huán)比增長2.1、2.2個(gè)百分點(diǎn)，較二季度增速提升0.8、6.4個(gè)百分點(diǎn)。各板塊分化持續(xù)：國有行與行業(yè)表現(xiàn)一致；股份行、城商行生息資產(chǎn)規(guī)模增速均較二季度放緩，股份行是貸款、債券投資、同業(yè)資產(chǎn)全面放緩，城商行則是貸款、同業(yè)資產(chǎn)增速放緩。三季度縮表的全為股份行——招行、浦發(fā)、民生以及興業(yè)銀行，債券投資、同業(yè)資產(chǎn)在壓降，預(yù)計(jì)主要為非標(biāo)資產(chǎn)。圖表：上市銀行生息資產(chǎn)環(huán)比增速生息資產(chǎn)貸款債券投資同業(yè)資產(chǎn)1Q181H183Q181Q181H1

3、83Q181Q181H183Q181Q181H183Q18工商銀行1.4%3.2%3.3%2.4%2.5%2.2%6.9%1.7%4.7%21.6%10.9%22.3%建設(shè)銀行3.2%0.4%2.6%1.9%2.3%2.3%0.4%0.8%6.2%87.8%10.2%3.2%農(nóng)業(yè)銀行2.2%1.6%3.5%4.0%2.8%2.7%1.1%5.6%4.1%1.8%25.1%29.4%中國銀行3.4%0.9%3.1%2.1%2.4%2.6%

4、3.7%1.8%2.7%24.6%9.1%9.2%交通銀行1.0%0.9%0.8%0.1%1.9%1.2%3.6%2.1%3.4%3.2%9.2%3.4%招商銀行0.8%4.8%0.6%4.2%4.4%2.0%2.2%6.0%0.1%13.5%44.1%15.8%中信銀行0.9%3.8%1.4%3.2%2.4%3.9%8.9%10.9%5.1%14.5%11.4%20.7%浦發(fā)銀行0.6%0.2%0.3%1.6%3.1%3.4%4.4%

5、2.0%9.5%13.8%15.1%25.8%民生銀行1.4%1.1%1.3%3.6%5.0%0.6%2.7%1.2%6.7%24.2%20.0%30.5%興業(yè)銀行0.1%2.5%0.3%4.9%4.9%5.5%1.4%2.9%2.2%19.7%41.6%22.3%光大銀行1.6%3.0%1.8%4.2%5.4%6.4%1.4%2.0%0.1%3.6%9.0%11.5%華夏銀行1.1%1.2%1.8%6.6%3.5%2.6%6.9%0.

6、9%4.2%19.2%9.1%15.9%平安銀行2.8%1.7%0.3%4.0%4.3%4.0%0.1%3.3%0.5%19.4%7.5%15.4%北京銀行2.6%4.0%1.8%6.2%6.2%2.4%5.4%1.2%2.5%28.7%7.2%7.0%南京銀行2.7%1.3%2.3%4.7%7.1%7.1%3.2%0.3%0.2%9.3%33.1%8.9%寧波銀行1.8%2.8%0.4%4.0%5.3%6.4%1.4%3.5%1.8%

7、8.9%3.4%16.1%江蘇銀行1.2%3.1%5.0%5.1%5.6%6.4%1.6%3.7%10.1%37.1%27.7%28.8%貴陽銀行1.9%3.9%3.4%5.8%5.2%14.9%0.7%2.1%4.3%26.1%17.7%122.1%杭州銀行0.8%1.4%1.4%4.9%5.2%10.9%8.4%1.2%3.5%84.6%4.0%13.4%上海銀行1.6%4.8%2.2%8.1%8.7%6.6%4.8%2.5%1.3

8、%1.8%10.3%9.4%上市銀行1.7%1.9%2.1%2.9%3.1%2.8%0.4%1.3%2.1%5.9%4.2%2.2%國有行2.3%1.6%2.9%2.3%2.5%2.3%2.5%2.6%4.4%9.6%7.8%7.9%股份行0.3%2.3%0.2%3.8%4.1%3.4%3.2%0.8%2.2%1.2%3.5%8.5%城商行1.7%3.3%2.4%5.8%6.4%6.0%0.2%0.5%1.8%9.1%2.4%8.3%來

9、源：公司財(cái)報(bào)，中泰證券研究所行業(yè)深度研究4請務(wù)必閱讀正文之后的重要聲明部分圖表：上市銀行貸款細(xì)項(xiàng)環(huán)比增速對公個(gè)貸票據(jù)1Q181H183Q181Q181H183Q181Q181H183Q18工行2.3%2.1%1.2%3.8%3.4%3.5%18.2%2.6%13.5%浦發(fā)1.5%0.5%1.8%2.8%5.0%5.2%7.9%23.6%51.1%興業(yè)3.9%3.1%2.1%4.3%7.2%7.8%62.0%14.5%51.7%平安1.9

10、%0.5%2.3%9.4%7.6%8.3%32.3%51.6%30.5%南京4.3%6.2%5.6%8.8%10.2%13.5%26.6%1.3%26.7%寧波4.4%3.6%2.9%9.2%6.3%2.9%22.1%19.6%61.9%江蘇8.4%2.6%1.5%4.4%10.3%9.9%15.2%16.2%33.3%貴陽7.0%3.2%18.2%2.8%12.1%5.1%48.7%6.6%0.0%杭州5.1%3.8%11.3%4.7

11、%10.7%9.4%3.2%13.2%16.1%來源：公司財(cái)報(bào)，中泰證券研究所圖表：上市銀行貸款結(jié)構(gòu)對公個(gè)貸票據(jù)1Q181H183Q181Q181H183Q181Q181H183Q18工行62.8%62.6%61.9%35.3%35.6%36.0%2.0%1.9%2.1%浦發(fā)56.8%55.4%52.6%39.3%40.0%40.7%3.8%4.6%6.7%興業(yè)60.4%59.3%57.4%37.2%38.1%38.9%2.4%2.6%

12、3.7%平安46.5%44.4%41.7%52.4%54.0%56.3%1.1%1.6%2.0%南京74.6%74.0%73.0%23.9%24.6%26.0%1.5%1.5%1.0%寧波62.7%61.7%59.7%32.0%32.3%31.3%5.2%5.9%9.0%江蘇67.1%65.2%62.2%25.0%26.1%26.9%7.9%8.7%10.9%貴陽76.7%75.2%77.3%23.2%24.7%22.6%0.1%0.1