有色金屬行業(yè)2019年年度投資策略報(bào)告否極泰來的有色金屬，關(guān)注預(yù)期差修復(fù)的投資性機(jī)會(huì)

1、目錄1.大類資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)走大類資產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)走勢(shì)回顧回顧..........................................................................................................................................................................62.大宗及金屬市場(chǎng)大宗及金屬市場(chǎng)核心交易要素梳理心交

2、易要素梳理......................................................................................................................................................72.1金屬價(jià)格年內(nèi)走勢(shì)頗具獨(dú)立性，中國(guó)因素對(duì)金屬價(jià)格有較強(qiáng)影響.................................

3、...........72.2商品指數(shù)整體承壓，但國(guó)內(nèi)商品抗跌性顯現(xiàn)..............................................................82.2.1內(nèi)盤金屬較商品指數(shù)超跌，但回報(bào)率表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于外盤金屬..............................................82.2.2強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元與弱勢(shì)原油導(dǎo)致年內(nèi)商品承壓.........................

4、...................................82.2.3匯率變動(dòng)及供給側(cè)因素提振內(nèi)盤商品強(qiáng)于外盤......................................................92.3國(guó)內(nèi)商品總持倉(cāng)上漲，有色金屬沉淀資金量下滑..........................................................92.3.1有色金屬年內(nèi)持倉(cāng)出現(xiàn)分化：由活躍

5、品種向非活躍品種轉(zhuǎn)移..........................................92.3.2國(guó)內(nèi)商品總投機(jī)度下滑，貴金屬或現(xiàn)趨勢(shì)性頭寸建立...............................................102.4金屬市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)率收窄，比價(jià)因高彈性品種的彈性自強(qiáng)化呈趨勢(shì)性特征.......................................112.5申萬有色板塊收益率及估值回

6、顧.......................................................................122.6影響申萬有色板塊估值的四大因素.....................................................................132.6.1金屬價(jià)格回報(bào)率影響有色板塊收益率....................................

7、.........................132.6.2投資者信心指數(shù)影響有色板塊收益率.............................................................132.6.3人民幣匯率及中美利差變化影響有色板塊收益率...................................................142.6.4宏觀變量的弱化影響有色板塊收益率.........

8、....................................................162.6.5預(yù)期差修復(fù)或?qū)τ猩鍓K收益率形成支撐.........................................................172.6.6有色礦采選行業(yè)或是2019年有色板塊的投資機(jī)會(huì)所在..............................................183.有色金屬

9、供應(yīng)端有色金屬供應(yīng)端的確定性數(shù)據(jù)確定性數(shù)據(jù)............................................................................................................................................................193.1確定性的供應(yīng)端低增速............................

10、...................................................193.2確定性的全球顯性低庫(kù)存.............................................................................213.3持續(xù)轉(zhuǎn)好的現(xiàn)貨升水環(huán)境............................................................

11、.................234.基本金屬供需基基本金屬供需基本面情況展望面情況展望............................................................................................................................................................244.1銅：供需狀態(tài)現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性逆轉(zhuǎn)，

12、供應(yīng)缺口或呈趨勢(shì)性放大...................................................244.2鋅鉛基本面出現(xiàn)結(jié)構(gòu)性弱化跡象.......................................................................284.2.1鋅：礦端供應(yīng)增加的預(yù)期逐漸成為現(xiàn)實(shí)............................................

13、...............304.2.2鉛：環(huán)保影響結(jié)束后供應(yīng)緊張格局或漸現(xiàn)逆轉(zhuǎn).....................................................324.3鋁：供應(yīng)趨于穩(wěn)定，影響價(jià)格核心因素回歸至需求層面...................................................344.4金、銀價(jià)格反彈預(yù)期不斷夯實(shí)...........................

14、..............................................404.4.1強(qiáng)勢(shì)美元、強(qiáng)勢(shì)美股及強(qiáng)美債收益率對(duì)金銀價(jià)格形成壓制...........................................404.4.2金銀ETF凈空單創(chuàng)歷史性記錄，市場(chǎng)的負(fù)面情緒已被過度放大.......................................424.4.3金銀供需面無結(jié)構(gòu)性變化，但黃金基本面

15、或略強(qiáng)于白銀.............................................434.4.4貴金屬的過度悲觀情形或逐步修復(fù)，關(guān)注金銀比變化...............................................475.投資策略與重點(diǎn)投資策略與重點(diǎn)公司........................................................................

16、....................................................................................................49東興證券年度報(bào)告東興證券年度報(bào)告有色金屬行業(yè)：否極泰來的有色金屬，關(guān)注預(yù)期差修復(fù)的投資性機(jī)會(huì)DONGXINGSECURITIES圖12:申萬有色及其子版塊萬有色及其子版塊PB走勢(shì)（整體法）走勢(shì)（整體法）.................

17、...............................................................................................................13圖13:申萬有色板塊及上期有色指數(shù)對(duì)數(shù)收益率萬有色板塊及上期有色指數(shù)對(duì)數(shù)收益率走勢(shì)圖勢(shì)圖...............................................................

18、.....................................................13圖14:有色企業(yè)家信心指數(shù)與申萬行業(yè)指數(shù)色企業(yè)家信心指數(shù)與申萬行業(yè)指數(shù)..................................................................................................................................

19、........14圖15:投資者信心指數(shù)與申萬行業(yè)指數(shù)資者信心指數(shù)與申萬行業(yè)指數(shù)................................................................................................................................................14圖16:有色行業(yè)訂貨、投資及用工景氣指數(shù)走勢(shì)圖色行業(yè)訂貨、投資及用

20、工景氣指數(shù)走勢(shì)圖............................................................................................................................14圖17:人民幣即期匯率與申萬有色板塊對(duì)數(shù)收益民幣即期匯率與申萬有色板塊對(duì)數(shù)收益率走勢(shì)圖走勢(shì)圖........................................

21、........................................................................15圖18:中美10年債利差與申萬有色年債利差與申萬有色板塊對(duì)數(shù)收益率走勢(shì)圖塊對(duì)數(shù)收益率走勢(shì)圖.....................................................................................................

22、.........15圖19:全球主要制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)年內(nèi)出現(xiàn)走弱跡象球主要制造業(yè)數(shù)據(jù)年內(nèi)出現(xiàn)走弱跡象....................................................................................................................................16圖20:中國(guó)制造業(yè)細(xì)分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)走勢(shì)圖國(guó)制造業(yè)細(xì)分?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)走勢(shì)圖...........

23、...............................................................................................................................................16圖21:中國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資及消費(fèi)累計(jì)同比走勢(shì)圖國(guó)固定資產(chǎn)投資及消費(fèi)累計(jì)同比走勢(shì)圖....................................

24、............................................................................................16圖22:中國(guó)PPI與有色板塊及上證指與有色板塊及上證指數(shù)月度收益率擬合圖月度收益率擬合圖..................................................................................

25、..............................17圖23:有色礦采選、冶煉加工及金屬制品固定資色礦采選、冶煉加工及金屬制品固定資產(chǎn)投資完成額同比數(shù)據(jù)投資完成額同比數(shù)據(jù)........................................................................................18圖24：有色子行業(yè)毛利率有色子行業(yè)毛利率....................

26、....................................................................................................................................................18圖25:有色子行業(yè)銷售利潤(rùn)率色子行業(yè)銷售利潤(rùn)率...............................................

27、.................................................................................................................18圖26：有色子行業(yè)營(yíng)業(yè)成本有色子行業(yè)營(yíng)業(yè)成本...................................................................................

28、.................................................................................19圖27:有色子行業(yè)存貨數(shù)據(jù)色子行業(yè)存貨數(shù)據(jù)....................................................................................................................

29、................................................19圖28：有色子行業(yè)應(yīng)收賬款有色子行業(yè)應(yīng)收賬款....................................................................................................................................................

30、................19圖29:有色子行業(yè)負(fù)債數(shù)據(jù)色子行業(yè)負(fù)債數(shù)據(jù)....................................................................................................................................................................19圖30:全國(guó)十種有色金屬月產(chǎn)量

31、及累計(jì)同比增速國(guó)十種有色金屬月產(chǎn)量及累計(jì)同比增速走勢(shì)圖勢(shì)圖....................................................................................................................20圖31:中國(guó)主要金屬品種累計(jì)供應(yīng)增速走勢(shì)圖國(guó)主要金屬品種累計(jì)供應(yīng)增速走勢(shì)圖....................................

32、................................................................................................21圖32:主要金屬品種全球顯性庫(kù)存走勢(shì)圖要金屬品種全球顯性庫(kù)存走勢(shì)圖.........................................................................................

33、...................................................22圖33:倫敦基本金屬注銷倉(cāng)單占比走勢(shì)圖敦基本金屬注銷倉(cāng)單占比走勢(shì)圖......................................................................................................................................

34、......22圖34:國(guó)內(nèi)有色金屬庫(kù)存可用天數(shù)內(nèi)有色金屬庫(kù)存可用天數(shù)........................................................................................................................................................23圖35:上?；窘饘偕疇顩r?；窘饘偕疇顩r........

35、........................................................................................................................................................23圖36:倫敦基本金屬升水狀況敦基本金屬升水狀況...........................................

36、.....................................................................................................................23圖37:全球銅礦產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)圖（虛線為預(yù)估值全球銅礦產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)圖（虛線為預(yù)估值）：...............................................................

37、...................................................................24圖38:全球三大工業(yè)體經(jīng)濟(jì)總量較金融危機(jī)前變化球三大工業(yè)體經(jīng)濟(jì)總量較金融危機(jī)前變化..............................................................................................................

38、..............25圖39:全球階段性銅消費(fèi)及消費(fèi)增速球階段性銅消費(fèi)及消費(fèi)增速....................................................................................................................................................25圖40:CNH與CNY的差額對(duì)差額對(duì)期銅價(jià)格有指引

39、作用銅價(jià)格有指引作用............................................................................................................................27圖41:銅油比價(jià)走勢(shì)圖及十年銅油比價(jià)走勢(shì)圖及十年銅油比均值（比均值（20082018）.........................................

40、.......................................................................27圖42:銅與各類別資產(chǎn)的周期相關(guān)性與各類別資產(chǎn)的周期相關(guān)性......................................................................................................................

41、..............................27圖43:銅與不同資產(chǎn)跨周期的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)與不同資產(chǎn)跨周期的格蘭杰因果關(guān)系檢驗(yàn)............................................................................................................................27圖44:倫銅及滬銅升貼水走勢(shì)銅及滬銅升貼水

42、走勢(shì)................................................................................................................................................................28圖45:全球銅顯性庫(kù)存變化圖球銅顯性庫(kù)存變化圖.................................

43、...............................................................................................................................28圖46:全球鋅、鉛顯性庫(kù)存球鋅、鉛顯性庫(kù)存......................................................................

44、..............................................................................................29圖47:鋅鉛注銷倉(cāng)單占比及鋅上海保稅倉(cāng)庫(kù)溢價(jià)鉛注銷倉(cāng)單占比及鋅上海保稅倉(cāng)庫(kù)溢價(jià).....................................................................................

45、...........................................29圖48:倫敦鋅鉛現(xiàn)貨升水敦鋅鉛現(xiàn)貨升水............................................................................................................................................................

46、............29圖49:長(zhǎng)江鋅鉛現(xiàn)貨升水江鋅鉛現(xiàn)貨升水........................................................................................................................................................................29圖50:全球精煉鋅產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)圖（虛線

47、為預(yù)估值全球精煉鋅產(chǎn)量增長(zhǎng)圖（虛線為預(yù)估值）：..............................................................................................................................31圖51:全球精煉鋅需求增長(zhǎng)圖（虛線為預(yù)估值全球精煉鋅需求增長(zhǎng)圖（虛線為預(yù)估值）：.............................