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1、DeutscheBankResearchAsiaEconomicsDate12October2017AsiaEconomicsMonthlyFromstrengthtostrength________________________________________________________________________________________________________________DeutscheBankAGHo

2、ngKongDISCLOSURESANALYSTCERTIFICATIONSARELOCATEDINAPPENDIX1.MCI(P)083042017.KaushikDasChiefEconomist(91)2271804909kaushik.das@JulianaLeeChiefEconomist(852)22038312juliana.lee@MichaelSpencerPhDChiefEconomist(852)22038303m

3、ichael.spencer@ZhiweiZhangPhDChiefEconomist(852)22038308zhiwei.zhang@TableofContentsAsiaOverviewPage03ChinaPage04HongKongPage06IndiaPage08IndonesiaPage14MalaysiaPage16PhilippinesPage18SingapePage20SouthKeaPage22SriLankaP

4、age24TaiwanPage26ThailPage28VietnamPage30MoaryPolicyMonitPage32AsiaEcoIndicatTablePage36EMAsiahascontinuedtobenefitfromstrongexternaldem.ExptgrowthacceleratedinQ3hintingatstrongerGDPgrowthinQ3ftheregion.Betterstillinflat

5、ionarypressureremainedbenignalthoughtherecentFXvolatilityislikelytopromptsomeCBstorefrainfromfurthermoaryeasing.China:Weexpectamodestpolicyledslowdowningrowthto6.6%inQ3from6.9%inQ2asacontinuedlmarketboomaddstogovernmentr

6、evenuesupptstheeconomy.HongKong:Fiscalmoarypoliciesaremovinginnewdirections.TheCEhasproposedrunningdownfiscalreservestofinancehighergovernmentspendingwhiletheHKMAisdeliberatelydrainingliquiditytotrytomanageagradualadjust

7、mentofinterestrates.India:Wethinkthepessimismsurroundingtheneartermgrowthoutlookisexcessiveunwarranted.AstheGSTrelatedissuesgetstedoutapositivebaseeffectcomesintoplayIndiasrealGDPgrowthshouldreturnoncegaintoabove7%in2HFY

8、18inourview.Indonesia:GDPgrowthisstableataboutitslongrunpotentialbutcuriouslyweakretailsalesgrowthsuggestsallmaynotbeaswellastheyappear.InflationislowenoughbuttheIDRdepreciationrecentlylikelywillservetoconvinceBItorefrai

9、nfromfurtherratehikes.Malaysia:Recentdataonexptsretailsalescapacityutilizationsuggestupsiderisktoour2017growthfecast.CeinflationremainslowenoughthatBNMneedbeinnohurrytoraiserates.Philippines:Growthremainsabovepotentialwh

10、ichshouldpushinflationhighernextyearcausingBSPtostartraisingratesaroundyear.ThereturntoacurrentaccountsurplusshouldhelpmitigatethedepreciationofthepesoresultingfromanarrowinginterestrategaptotheUS.Singape:Exptsreboundeds

11、harplyinQ3posingupsideriskstoour2Hgrowthoutlookwhiledomesticdemhasimprovedslightly.SouthKea:Highfrequencydatapointtoanotherquarterofnear3%growthledbyareboundinexptsdespitetheongoingrisksfromNthKea.SriLanka:GDPgrowthaccel

12、eratedto4.0%yoyinQ2from3.8%yoyinQ1.Weexpectasustainedrecoveryingrowthmomentumin2H2017albeitbelow4.5%onaverage.Taiwan:AreboundinexptsshouldguideTaiwan’sGDPgrowthhigherto2.3%inQ3.Thail:HighfrequencydatapointstostrongerGDPg

13、rowthofaround4%inQ3vs.3.7%inQ2asexptsstrengthenprivateinvestmentrecovers.Vietnam:GDPgrowthsurprisedtotheupsideinQ3risingto7.5%from6.4%in1HsupptedbyalargertradecontributionasurgeinFDIstrongcreditgrowth.Distributedon:12102

14、01705:12:35GMT0bed7b6cf11c12October2017AsiaEconomicsMonthly:FromstrengthtostrengthDeutscheBankAGHongKongPage3FromstrengthtostrengthEMAsiahascontinuedtobenefitfromstrongexternaldem.ExptgrowthacceleratedinQ3hintingatstrong

15、erGDPgrowthinQ3ftheregion.BetterstillinflationarypressureremainedbenignalthoughtherecentFXvolatilityislikelytopromptsomeCBstorefrainfromfurthermoaryeasing.AsiftheNthKeanriskwasnotenoughtheexternalenvironmentfEMAsiaFXturn

16、edchallenginginlateSeptemberwiththerepricingofDMpolicytightening.InourviewhowevertherecentdepreciationofEMAsiaFXwasnotreflectiveofweakeningfundamentals.InfactEMAsia’sexptgrowthreboundedinQ3againstourearlierfecastofamodes

17、tslowdownsuggestingstrongeraverageGDPgrowthinQ3ftheregion.HavingsaidthatgiventhesurgeinexptsinSeptemberaheadoftheOctoberholidaysNEAsiamayseesomepaybackinexptgrowthinQ4.Exptsrebound2010010203040502010201120122013201420152

18、0162017Asia10(Total)ExptsKea%yoy3mmaAugSeptSources:CEICDeutscheBankVietnamledthewaypostingasurgeinGDPgrowthat7.5%inQ3.WhilehighfrequencydatapointtostrongerGDPgrowthinQ3fSingapeSouthKeaTaiwanThailstrongerthanexpectedexpts

19、suggestthatMalaysia’sgrowthmaynotevenslowslightlyasweexpectedearlier.MeovertogetherwithstrongerexptstheremarkableboominthelmarketposesupsideriskstoourGDPfecastof6.6%inQ3vs.6.9%inQ2fChina.BycontrastIndia’shighfrequencydat

20、apointtoarelativelyslowrecoveryfromdenominationGSTshocks.FIndonesiacuriouslyweakretailsalessuggestthatallmaynotbeaswellasitappears.AgainstthepositivefundamentalshoweverweexpecttheexternalenvironmentfEMAsiaFXtoremainuncer

21、tainwiththerepricingofDMpolicytightening.ThereisalsothepotentialescalationofUSAsiatradefrictiontowryaboutalso.HoweverwedonotseeEMAsiaCBsinterveningtokeeptheircurrenciesstrongalthoughwedoseetherecentFXvolatilitykeepingRBI

22、BIfromfurthermoaryeasingahead.HavingsaidthatSBVremainsopenfafinal25bpsratecutinQ4asthegovernmentseeks6.7%growththisyearwhileCBSLpreparestohikeonemetimetoensuremacrostabilityathome.ApartfromthesetwoCBsweseeothersremaining

23、onthesidelinesftheremainderoftheyear.CPIinflationheadhigheralbeitgradually012345678101112131415161718EMAsiaFecast%yoySources:CEICDeutscheBankBetteryetfgrowthalthoughlargelyin2018afewgovernmentsinEMAsiahaveturnedtomegainf

24、raprojectsincometransferswagehikesamongotheractionstoboostdomesticdem.MeoverthePhilippinesmaygetataxrefmthatallowsfmespendingoninfrastructurepublicservicesamongothersthatcouldsendbothinflationgrowthhigherthanweprojectatt

25、hemomentposingupsideriskstoBSPratesin2018.MeanwhiletheHongKonggovernmenthasproposedrunningdownfiscalreservestofinancehighergovernmentspending.AlthoughtheSouthKeangovernmentislikelytofaceconsiderablenegotiationoverthe2018

26、budgetattheNationalAssemblygivenitslargewelfarespendingincreaseattheexpenseofotheritemslikeSOCweseeitseventualpassagebefetheyearendalbeitpossiblymissingthe2Decemberdeadline.Thisquarterisalsofullofpoliticaleventsgloballyi

27、ncludinginEMAsia.PresidentXiJinpingissettoemergestrongerfromChina’supcomingleadershiptransitionthismonthbefePresidentTrump’svisitinNovemberwhichiscertaintogarnermuchattentionfrombotheconomicsecurityexpertsgiventhepotenti

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