亞洲-宏觀策略-亞洲要聞

1、3September2018AsiaAsiaEssentialsAsiaEssentialsAseanConference2018AseanConference20183BargainhuntingIndonesiaPhilsinfocusConradWernerOur9thannualAseanconferencefeatured61cpatesacrossSingape(16cpates)Phils(14)Indonesia(11)

2、Malaysia(11)Thail(9).?BargainhuntingwasthederofthedaywiththetwowstperfmingmarketsYTDseeingthemostmeetingrequests(IndonesiaPhils).?Ourtopideasfromtheevent:SeaLtdSembcpIndustriesBankNegaraIndonesiaBukitAsamAyalaLShakey’sPi

3、zzaSrisawad.?BBMG(2009HK)BBMG(2009HK)(Outperfm)(Outperfm)4HisticHighGPttosustainin2019propertysalestocatchupin2H18DavidChingBBMGseesupsidefGPtin2H182019fromthecurrenthistichigh?Contractedsalestocatchupin2Hastheyhaveobtai

4、nedsaleslicenses?MeopptunitiesfIndustriallconversionafternewacquisition.MaintainOPloweringEPSgivenguidance.?HongKongRetailSalesHongKongRetailSales5FurthermoderationinJulyLindaHuangGoldjewellerywatchessawasignificantslowd

5、own.?ModerationacrosscosmeticsdepartmentstesclothingIndonesiaPhilsinfocusKeypoints?Our9thannualAseanconferencefeatured61cpatesacrossSingape(16cpates)Phils(14)Indonesia(11)Malaysia(11)Thail(9).?Bargainhuntingwasthederofth

6、edaywiththetwowstperfmingmarketsYTDseeingthemostmeetingrequests(IndonesiaPhils).?Ourtopideasfromtheevent:SeaLtdSembcpIndustriesBankNegaraIndonesiaBukitAsamAyalaLShakey’sPizzaSrisawad.Topthemesideas:?Asean’sdigitalageishe

7、re:KeynotelunchpresentationsfromGrabInvokeMalaysiareinfcedourviewthatdigitalissetfacceleratedadoptioninAsean.WeseeecommerceonlinegamesleaderSeaLtd.asthebestlistedplayonthisthemeourconvictionwasreinfcedatourevent.?Indones

8、iawasakeytargetmarketfbottomfishingwith4ofthetop5mostrequestedcompanies.Investssawthemarket’sderatingweakercurrencypoliticalstabilityasprovidingacasefacquiringIndonesianequities.TelkomBukitAsam(PTBA)stoodoutfpositivemess

9、aging.OurtopideafromtheeventisBNIasexpectationsremainbelowthoseofmajpeersexecutionisontrack.WealsolikecoalplayPTBAonstrongprofitabilitywhichlookssettoexceedconsensusattractivevaluation.?…AswasPhilippines.Notwithstingmacr

10、oconcernsPhilippineswasrepresentedbytwosectswhichinvestsfoundattractive:Propertyledthewaywithrobustgrowthacrossallsegmentsespeciallyresidential.Consumeralsogarneredstronginterestaststrongtoplinegrowththoughmarginpressure

11、wasaneartermconcern.OurtopideafromtheconferencewaspropertyplayALI.IntheconsumersectwelikefastgrowingPIZZA.?SplitviewsonSingape:Someagreedwithourpositivemarketview(highlypremisedonvaluation)whileotherswouldprefertoseestro

12、ngerlongtermgrowthdrivers.EitherwaySMM’spositiveoutlookfnewoffshedersgeneratedbuzz.InthiscontextweseeSMM’sparentSCIasthebetterplay:itischeaperhasadditionalcatalystsinitsutilitiesbusiness.?Thail:meiveonthemespostSET’sboun

13、cealthoughinvestsnotedThai’scurrencystabilityaboveaverageGDPgrowthYTD.InterestismainlyonstocksthatcanoutperfmastanunevenThaieconomicrecoverytradedisputeinterestratehikeelection.SAWADTUHANAJWDstoodoutfpositivemessagingin2

14、0182019.OurtopideafromtheconferenceisSAWADduetocreditreexpansionlowerprovisioning.?Malaysia:Interestremainshighlyivegiventhechallengingtopdownmarketdynamicofweakearningsgrowthvisviselevatedvaluationswithinvestsfocusedone

15、ithervalueopptunities(e.g.GamudaWestpts)growthstocks(e.g.TopGloveMAHB).Atamacrolevelalleyesareonthenewgovernment’sfirstBudget(Nov2nd)refollowonweightingadjustments.Outlook?WhileAseanremainsunderweightedfromaregionalstrat

16、egyperspective(SGistheloneequalweight)weseevalueinthenameshighlightedabove.Fullfeedbackacrosstheeventcanbefoundhere:Day1Day2Day3.16%14%12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Indonesia(JCI)Philippines(PCOMP)Singape(FSSTI)Thail(SET)Malaysia(KLCI