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1、EconomicResearchJune72019GlobalDataWatch?ContinueddownwardrevisionstogrowthCBratefecasts?BoJnowexpectedtocutratesto0.3%asglobalsupptfades?TheECBturnsdovishbutisnotclosetoeasing?Nextweek:mixedChinaactivitysolidUSretailsal

2、esinMayRefriedconfusionismakingitselfclearEvenbefethetradeconflictheatedupinMayglobalgrowthwasweigheddownbygeopoliticaluncertaintydepressingbusinesssentiment.Thelatestnewssuggeststhatthisdragremainssignificantaswemovetow

3、ardyear.OurcapexnowcasterpointstoacontractionthisquarterwhiletheMaymanufacturingPMIpointstoanunderlyingtrajectyofbelow1%growthinfactyoutput.Thisdraghasbeencontainedthusfarasemploymentconsumerspendinggainsremainfirm.Howev

4、erMayreleasesshowtheglobalservicesPMIfallingsharplypointtoslowinginUSChinaemploymentgrowth.Wehaveincpatedexpectationsofamoderationinhiringservicesectgrowthinourfecastbutnotanintensifiedtradewarfromhere.Ataminimumthedrago

5、nconfidenceshoulddeepenascompaniesquestionthestabilityoftherulesbasedglobaltradingder.Whilewehavefocusedonthisindirectgrowthriskasignificantdirectdragfromrisingtariffsisagrowingpossibility.Attheendoflastyeartariffshikesr

6、epresentedasmall0.3%pttaxonUShouseholdincomes(Figure1Table1).HoweverthispotentialtaxonUSwouldriseto1%thisyeariftariffsareimposedonallimptsfromChina.Itwouldfurtherdoubleinsizeifthethreatened25%tariffsonautosMexicowereimpo

7、sed.Athefogoftradewartherearetwopointsofclarityftheneartermoutlook.Firstglobalgrowthislikelytoslipbelowitspotentialpacethroughyearendweareloweringfecaststoreflectthisoutcome.OntheheelsofdownwardrevisionstotheUSChinaother

8、largeEMeconomieslastmonthweloweredgrowthfecaststhisweekinWesternEuropeJapanCanada.Atpresentwefecast2.5%annualizedglobalGDPgrowthfrom2Q4Qdown0.5%ptfromthestartoftheyear.Thesecondpointofconvictionisthatpolicysupptsshouldbe

9、fthcoming.Lastweek’schangetoincpate50bpofFedeasingthisyearhasbeenTable1:UScumulativegoodstariffsBasedon201718val.AssumingfullpassthroughTariffrateHittoPCEpricesEnactedin2018:$308bn(at12%)3.40.3Enactedin2019:$250bnChinaim

10、p.(at25%)4.50.5Threatened:$300bnChinaimp.(at25%)7.41.0$350bnMexicoimp.(at25%)10.81.7$200bnautos(at25%)12.72.0Source:J.P.Mgan13579111351015202560657075808590950005101520%ofglobalGDPFigure1:GlobaltradeUStariffrate%Source:W

11、ITSJ.P.MganEffectivetariffrateGlobaltradeCurrentThreatenedContentsUSChinatariffs:Outofthefryingpan…16EMmoarypolicy:Easycomeeasygo19Japan:ProsconsofpostponingtheVAThike21Euroarea:Countrydetailssignalveryslowriseince25Germ

12、anautosect:Gaugingthespilloversnewshocks27Climatechangethemacroeconomy:afirstlook29TaiwansexptsectadjuststoUSChinatradeconflicts31Philippines:Restartingthefiscalengine34GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4GlobalCentralBankWatch

13、6Nowcastofglobalgrowth7edrecentresearchfromJ.P.MganEconomics9TheJ.P.MganView:Markets10DataWatchesUnitedStates36Euroarea44Japan48Canada52Mexico54Brazil56Argentina58ColombiaVenezuela60UnitedKingdom63EmergingEurope65SouthAf

14、rica&SSA70AustraliaNewZeal73ChinaHongKongTaiwan75Kea78ASEAN80India84Asiafocus86RegionalDataCalendars88BruceKasman(1212)8345515bruce.c.kasman@JPMganChaseBankNAJosephLupton(1212)8345735joseph.p.lupton@JPMganChaseBankNA3Eco

15、nomicResearchGlobalDataWatchJune72019JPMganChaseBankNABruceKasman(1212)8345515bruce.c.kasman@JosephLupton(1212)8345735joseph.p.lupton@ofanExcessiveDeficitProcedureinItalyisnothelping.TheserisksareunderscedbyFriday’sdisap

16、pointingreptsfromGermanyshowingIPexptscontractinginApril.WhileEastertimingmayhaveplayedarolethecontinuedsluggishnessinGermanindustrypointstosofterunderlyingsupptsastransitydragsfromlastyearfade.Addingtotheconcernaresigns

17、thattheGermanautosectremainsstuckinthemud—withproductiondataupinAprilbutstill8%belowthe1H18level.MexicowaitsslowsAsnegotiationstoavoidthe5%tariffonallMexicanexptskickedoffthisweekMexicanauthitiesadoptedadiplomaticapproac

18、hwithPresidentAMLOstressingtheneedtofindacooperativesolutiontoahumanitariancrisis.ProgresshasthusfarbeenlimitedtoefftsfromMexicotostrengthensecurityontheCentralAmericanbder.Alastminutesolutionispossiblebutthereisasignifi

19、cantriskthattariffsareimposednextweek.Regardlessoftheoutcomeweexpecttherewillbealastingdragoninvestmentconfidence.Accdinglythisweekwedowngraded2019growthfMexicoto1.0%.WebelievepassageoftheUSMCAdealisatriskcouldbematerial

20、lydelayeduntilnextyear.EMcentralbankcallsshiftinmassThebroaddovishshiftinEMpolicyfecastsincludesamixofaddedeasingdelayed(fewer)hikes.EvenwiththesechangesouranalysissuggeststheEMregionshouldbeeasingslightlyme.AmodifiedTay

21、lrulefEM(ex.ChinaArgentina)pointsto49bpincutsbyyearend14bpmethanwhatwehavepenciledin.?TheReserveBankofIndia(RBI)cutratesasexpectedbutalsochangeditsstancefromneutraltoaccommodativelikelyreflectingitsviewsoncurrentgrowthin

22、flationdynamics.Growthmomentumhasfallenoffsharplysincethestartoftheyearunderscedbymaterialdisappointmentfromtherecent1Q19GDPrept.Withtheglobalenvironmentwseningthenewgovernmenthavingverylittlefiscalspacewebelievetheburde

23、nofadjustmentwillfallonmoarypolicy.Wetherefepencilin50bpofeasingftherestof2019.Thebiggestrisktoourviewisadisappointingmonsoonseasonwhichwouldconstituteanegativesupplyshockthatcoulddelayanyratecuts.?ElsewhereinEMAsiathesl

24、owdriftisalsotowardeasierpolicies.FKeaourrevisedgrowthfecastmateriallyundershootstheBankofKea’sAprilfecast.IntheeventourfecastisrighttheBoKwouldlikelytiltmedovishatitsJulymeeting.WiththeFedBoJexpectedtocutin2H19thisshoul

25、dalsolowertheBoK’sestimateofitsneutralpolicyrate—promptingaratecutin4Q19.FTaiwanwehavenotchangedourcall.Howevertheweakcyclicaltrajectytogetherwithmajcentralbanksexpectedtoeaseraisestheprospectofaratecutlaterthisyear.?Fth

26、ehighyieldersinEMEAEM(RussiaSouthAfricaTurkey)inflationhasgenerallysurprisedtothedownside.ThesituationinSouthAfricaisparticularlydireasgrowthhasbeenweakfthepastfewyears(punctuatedbyadisappointing3.2%arcontractionin1Q19)e

27、xacerbatingalreadydifficultfiscalchallenges.Thecombinationofweakgrowthwithinflationatthepointofthetargetbleadsustopullfwardthe4Q19ratecuttonextmonth.Consideringourinflationoutlookdownsideriskstogrowththereisscopefanaddit

28、ional25bpcutin4Q19.InRussiaweexpecttheCBRwillcutthepolicyrate25bpnextweek.InflationisrunningatthelowendofCBRexpectationsinflationexpectationsaredeclininggraduallygrowthsurprisedtothedownsideglobalcentralbankshavemadeadov

29、ishturn—aperfectsettingfamedovishCBRstance.Weexpectadditional25bpcutsinSeptemberinMarchbutgivenglobaldevelopmentsbelievetheriskstoourfecastareskewedtowarddeepermefrontloadedpolicyeasing.InTurkeydespitetheimprovementinpri

30、cedynamicstherecentlirarecoveryweexpecttheCBRTtoremaincautiousresistthetemptationofeasingmoarypolicyearlysoastobolstercredibility.?InCEEmostcentralbanksarealreadydisinclinedtohikedespiteabovetargetinflation.Aslowinggloba

31、lgrowthback—particularlycontinuedconcernsaboutGermanindustry—reinfcesthisbias.WhileceinflationislikelytolingerabovecentralbanktargetsthebalanceofriskspointstocentralbanksinHungaryPolputtingoffanyhikesuntil2H20.Aftera200b

32、phikingspreetheCzechNationalBankhastakenadovishturnwepostponethenexthiketo3Q20.?InRomaniapersistentlyhighinflationisthreateningNBRcredibilitysowecontinuetoseetighteningthisyear.InflationhasbeenoutsidethetargetbsinceDecem

33、ber2017wefecastinflationwelloutsidetheNBRtargetb(1.5%3.5%)overthemoarypolicyhizon.Thecentralbankpreferstotightenthroughliquiditymanagementbutthesestepsarenotlikelytobeenoughtobringinflationinsidethetargetbwithoutratehike

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