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1、AsiaPacificEquityResearch17June2019ThaiConsumerEndofsummertradeTakingprofitonoutperfmersSwitchingtoimprovingmomentumConvenienceStesKaePnpunnarathCFAAC(662)6842679kae.pnpunnarath@BloombergJPMAPNPUNNARATHJPMganSecurities(T

2、hail)LimitedSeepage27fanalystcertificationimptantdisclosuresincludingnonUSanalystdisclosures.J.P.Mgandoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofi

3、nterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.WerefreshourinvestmentthesisftheconsumersectposttherecentsharewpricemovementYTD.Webelievethatth

4、eendoftailwindsfromthesummerin2Q19potentialslowdowninpublicspendingduringthetransitiontothenewgovernmentmightpromptsomepricecrectioninthenearterm.Werecommendprofittakingonoutperfmerswithlimitedupsidesurprisepotentialin2H

5、19(DGHMPROOSPtoN)accumulatingimprovingmomentum(UGCPALLtoOWOWTHBEV)underappreciatedstimulusbeneficiary(OWROBINS).WestayOWoncyclicalfoodprocesss(CPFTU)UWonhypermarket(BJC).?UpgradeCPALLtoOWonimprovingearningsoutlook.Weupgr

6、adeCPALLfromNeutraltoOWwithahigherJun20PTofBt93(4%EPSvaluationrollover).WefecastCPALL’searningsgrowthtoacceleratefrom05%in2Q181Q19toc15%throughtherestofFY19onthebackof:1)improvingprofitabilityof7Elevenasoperatingcostpres

7、suresubsideshighermarginnewservicesmaysoonrampup2)stalonefmatunlocking7Elevensfasterexpansion3)MAKRO’smerationalpaceofoverseasexpansiongreaterfocusonturningthedomesticbusiness.Excessivehikeinminimumwageisakeyriskinourvie

8、w.?Neartheendofasummertailwind:DGOSPtoNeutral.WedowngradeOSPtoNeutralwithanunchangedPTofBt34.Whilewecontinuetolikethestock’slongtermstructuralstyslowingbeveragesalesgrowthpostsummerpotentialmarginpressurefromstepupinsuga

9、rtaxinSep19mayprovideasetbacktoc40%stockrallyyeartodate.PotentialinflowfromSET50indexinclusionmaycometoanendbyendJun19.?ProfittakingonHMPRO.HMPROhasconsistentlybeenthebestperfmingretailerinFY1718stilloutperfmedtheSETby10

10、%YTD.At34xoneyearfwardPEthestockisonly10%below10yearhighmultipleof37x.DespiteimprovingSSSGyeartodateweseemelimitedscopefupsidesurprisefrommarginstybasedonweakerthanexpectedyeartodatetrajecty.Withoutchangestoourestimatesw

11、erolloverourPTtoarriveatBt18Jun20PT.WedowngradethestocktoNeutralaswebelieveexpectationsf14%15%EPSgrowthinFY1920arealreadyintheprice.EquityRatingsPriceTargetsMktCapPriceRatingPriceTargetCompanyTicker($mn)CCYPriceCurPrevCu

12、rEndDatePrevEndDateCPAllPclCPALLTB23732THB82.50OWN93.00Jun2078.00Dec19BerliJuckerPCLBJCTB6258THB49.00UWnc45.00Jun20ncncoenPokphFoodsCPFTB7787THB28.25OWnc34.00Jun20ncncHomeProductCenterPclHMPROTB7363THB17.50NOW18.00Jun201

13、7.00Dec19OsotspaPCLOSPTB3293THB34.25NOW34.00Jun20ncncRobinsonDepartmentSteROBINSTB1982THB55.75OWnc70.00Jun20ncncThaiBeveragePublicCompanyLtd.THBEVSP15280SGD0.83OWnc0.88Jun20ncncThaiUnionGroupPCLTUTB2811THB18.40OWnc21.00D

14、ec19ncncSource:CompanydataBloombergJ.P.Mganestimates.nc=nochange.Allpricesasof17Jun19.3AsiaPacificEquityResearch17June2019KaePnpunnarathCFA(662)6842679kae.pnpunnarath@Figure1:ThaiRetailSectPEbSource:J.P.MganBloomberg.Fig

15、ure2:ThaiF&BSectPEbSource:J.P.MganBloomberg.Figure3:ThaiRetailSect–EVEBITDAbSource:J.P.MganBloomberg.22.024.026.028.030.032.0Jan12Jul12Jan13Jul13Jan14Jul14Jan15Jul15Jan16Jul16Jan17Jul17Jan18Jul18Jan191SD=29.6xMean=27.6x1

16、SD=25.5x2SD=23.5x11.012.013.014.015.016.017.018.019.020.021.0Jan12Jul12Jan13Jul13Jan14Jul14Jan15Jul15Jan16Jul16Jan17Jul17Jan18Jul18Jan191SD=18.1xMean=16x1SD=13.9x2SD=11.8x121314151617181920Jan12Jul12Jan13Jul13Jan14Jul14J

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