j.p. 摩根-亞太地區(qū)-宏觀策略-泰國與印尼消費(fèi)后大選消費(fèi)-2019.6.21-27頁

1、AsiaPacificEquityResearch21June2019ThailvsIndonesiaConsumptionVolume#1:PostElectionConsumptionBroadlinesDepartmentStesKaePnpunnarathCFAAC(662)6842679kae.pnpunnarath@BloombergJPMAPNPUNNARATHJPMganSecurities(Thail)LimitedB

2、ennyKurniawanCFAAC(6221)52918024benny.kurniawan@BloombergJPMABKURNIAPTJ.P.MganSekuritasIndonesiaAjayMirchani(65)68822419ajay.mirchani@J.P.MganSecuritiesSingapePrivateLimitedRajivBatra(65)68828151rajiv.j.batra@J.P.MganSec

3、uritiesSingapePrivateLimitedSeepage24fanalystcertificationimptantdisclosuresincludingnonUSanalystdisclosures.J.P.Mgandoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmay

4、haveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.ThisseriesaimstobeahbooktohelpinvestscompareASEAN’stwolargestconsumermarkets:Th

5、ailIndonesia.Thisfirstissuenavigatestheneartermconsumptionoutlookafterrecentgeneralelectionsinbothcountriesfiveyearsafterthepreviousonesin2014.Weexpectapostelectionconsumptionsetbackinbothcountriesfromslowerpublicspendin

6、gduetoneartermgovernmenttransition.ThatsaidwearerelativelymeconstructiveonconsumptioninThailthaninIndonesiagivenmeconsumerfriendlypoliciesastrongerfiscalposition.InThailwebelievepopulistpoliciesifwellexecutedcouldposeups

7、iderisktodemfmassconsumption(OWCPALLTHBEV)fromupcountry(OWROBINS).InIndonesiaanyhardrefmscouldwkagainstourOWonASIIINDFemphasizeourcautiousviewonGGRM(Neutral)butthisappearstobeintheprice(14%in3MvsJCI2%).?Expectmeconsumpti

8、onfriendlypoliciesinThailoverIndonesia.WeexpectThail’spoliciestobemepopulistthanIndonesiasgivenitsstrongerfiscalpositionthepoliciesoutlinedduringthepoliticalcampaignwiththecaveatofithavingaweakcoalitiongovernment.InThail

9、potentialpolicieslikefarmpricesubsidiesguaranteeshigherminimumwagewelfaresupptwilllikelysupptmassupcountryconsumption(OWCPALLTHBEVROBINS)withcostpushinflationakeydownsideriskfretailers(UWBJC).InIndonesiawearecognizanttha

10、tgovernmentrevenuegrowthwasamere1%yyYTDwhichmightleadtoconsumerunfriendlyrefmsincludingpartialfullremovaloffuelsubsidiesalthoughthisisnotpresentlyonthecards.Investshaveclearlyadjustedtheirexpectationsinthiscycle(3Mperfma

11、nceof7%fconsumerstocksunderourcoveragevsJCI2%)asaresultweseepocketofopptunitieswithinthesect.OurkeyOWsareASIIINDFHMSP.Proconsumercampaignpoliciesincludeanincreaseinhealthcaresubsidiesanincreaseinfreeeducationbudgets.?Fro

12、mapreelectionspendingspreetoapostelectionslowdown.Publicspendingacceleratedaheadofbothcountries’elections.Thaigovernmentalreadydisbursed59%ofthebudgetin6MFY19(OctMar)withgovernmentspendingongrantsbenefits20%yythreemonths

13、befetheelection.InIndonesia4M19socialspendingisalready50%ofthebudgetfthisyear.Weseeriskofsoftergovernmentsupptduringthetransitiontothenewterm.?WhereisthemispricingFconsumerstockswebelieveearningsmomentumrevisionindustrys

14、tructure(categydrivenmostlybymarginexpansioninThailmarketsharegainsinIndonesia.AmongthesewethinkROBINS(OW)isanunderappreciatedneartermstimulusbeneficiaryconsideringits18%underperfmanceYTD.HMSPunderperfmancearoundtheelect

15、ionpresentsabuyingopptunityasweexpectearningstogrowteensyydespiteslowerthanexpectedvolumethisyear.WebelievethelongtermindustryoutlookstillfavsLTLNasegmentwhereHMSPisthemarketleader.Table3:Ourearningsfecastsfsevenofoureig

16、htOWsarehigherthanthestreetJPvsConsensusEPSgrowthROEDivYield(%)Staples19E20E19E20E19E20E19E20ECPFTB15%16%NA13.5%8.7%9.3%2.4%2.7%INDFIJ8%3%16.5%6.1%13.9%13.7%3.4%3.9%HMSPIJ7%10%18.8%10.4%38.2%44.2%3.4%3.9%THBEVSP3%4%27.0%

17、9.6%18.5%18.1%2.2%2.4%TUTB12%18%90.2%14.7%13.7%14.6%4.1%4.7%DiscretionaryASIIIJ7%6%17.0%5.5%16.0%16.5%2.9%3.0%CPALLTB3%4%20.3%15.4%27.3%27.7%1.3%1.5%ROBINSTB1%1%10.2%10.3%17.3%17.2%2.6%2.9%Source:J.P.MganestimatesBloombe

18、rgconsensusTickerPriceCMPPriceJPMMktCapCCYLCTargetRatingUS$BFY19EFY20EFY19EFY20EFY19EFY20EFY19EFY20EFY19EFY20EFY19EFY20EFY19EFY20ECPFTBTHB28.534OW785016.714.71.41.3NA13.5%8.7%9.3%2.4%2.7%12.712.10.4%5.0%INDFIJIDR70507900

19、OW433912.712.01.81.616.5%6.1%13.9%13.7%3.4%3.9%6.56.226.2%5.0%ICBPIJIDR1010010100N825924.022.65.04.77.5%6.1%21.4%20.3%1.9%2.1%15.214.25.7%6.4%UNVRIJIDR4590046500N2455144.541.050.246.013.7%8.6%100.0%98.3%2.1%2.1%31.128.51

20、3.7%8.8%GGRMIJIDR7827584500N1055815.714.23.12.822.9%11.1%20.2%20.5%3.4%4.1%9.98.916.1%10.2%HMSPIJIDR33604900OW2739824.422.110.710.318.8%10.4%38.2%44.2%3.4%3.9%17.115.520.1%10.8%OSPTBTHB35.2534N338731.827.85.55.224.5%14.4

21、%18.4%20.3%2.5%2.9%19.117.012.8%11.9%THBEVSPSGD0.8450.88OW1551720.618.83.73.327.0%9.6%18.5%18.1%2.2%2.4%19.117.712.6%8.4%TUTBTHB18.421OW280814.312.41.81.890.2%14.7%13.7%14.6%4.1%4.7%13.212.162.8%8.9%AverageStaple22.720.6

22、9.28.618.1%11%28.1%28.8%2.8%3%16.014.716%8%ASIIIJIDR76508200.0OW2171012.211.62.01.917.0%5.5%16.0%16.5%2.9%3.0%9.59.219.1%2.7%BJCTBTHB5045.0UW640529.127.61.71.73.6%5.2%6.1%6.2%1.5%1.6%16.716.10.9%3.9%CPALLTBTHB84.2593.0OW

23、2420831.627.47.97.020.3%15.4%27.3%27.7%1.3%1.5%19.117.49.6%9.7%HMPROTBTHB17.7018.00N744636.131.610.810.014.0%14.3%31.0%32.2%2.3%2.6%21.219.39.9%9.8%MAPIIJIDR940860.0N109418.816.82.62.344.7%12.0%14.7%14.6%0.9%1.1%7.26.67.

24、5%10.1%ROBINSTBTHB5770.0OW202519.617.83.22.910.2%10.3%17.3%17.2%2.6%2.9%11.310.76.3%5.7%LPPFIJIDR34203200.0UW7006.57.33.32.639.9%11.7%82.7%68.0%9.6%7.7%4.54.913.2%7.3%AverageDiscretionary27.024.25.24.821.4%7.3%27.9%26.1%