2023年全國碩士研究生考試考研英語一試題真題（含答案詳解+作文范文）_第1頁
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1、Disclosures&DisclaimerThisreptmustbereadwiththedisclosurestheanalystcertificationsintheDisclosureappendixwiththeDisclaimerwhichfmspartofit.Issuerofrept:HSBCBankplcViewHSBCGlobalResearchat::www.research.?Asoilslipsoffitsp

2、eakweassesstheextenttowhichmovesinoilpricesinfluenceglobalinflationbreakevens?ItseemsinevitablethatlongendEuroinflationfwardswillfallfromtheECB’stargetespeciallywithoutDutchpensionbuying?Thepersistentrichnessof5y5yRPIisp

3、uzzlingbutitmaybearesultofinsurancepensionrelatedactivityFuelfthoughtOilpriceshaveretreatedofftheirsixmonthhighsfurtherweaknesscouldbeahead.USbreakevensaremostsensitivetochangesinoilpricesbutweshouldnotoverplaytheirimpta

4、ncef10yearTIPSvaluationswherewemaintainamildlybullishview.SelllongendEuroinflationfwardsFacedwithastructurallylowinflationoutlookitseemsimprobablethatlongendinflationswapfwardswillsustaintheircurrentlevelswhicharestillne

5、artheECB’stargetofcloseto2%.WeaddtoourstructurallybearishEuroinflationexposurebyselling20y10yHICPxT.Furthermeonthedemsidethereisnowloweractivityinthe10yearsectoftheHICPxTcurvefromDutchpensioninvests.Thisshowsnosignofchan

6、ginganytimesoonasfundinglevelsremaintoolow.Infactfouroutofthelargestfivepensionfundsrecentlywarnedthatthelikelihoodoffuturecutstopensionrightsbenefitshadincreased.5y5yRPIdefiesgravityAtthetimeofwritingtheUKinflationmarke

7、tisstillawaitingthegovernment’sresponsetotheHouseofLdsreptonRPIrefmwhichwassupposedtobefthcominginApril.Asuncertaintylingersonthepersistentrichnessof5y5yRPIcontinuestopuzzlemarketparticipants.Weagreethatfromapurelymacroe

8、conomicperspectiveintermediateRPIfwardslookexpensive.Howeverwethinkvaluationsmayhavebeendisttedbyachangeininvestdem.LDIhedgingflowsinsurancebuyingmaybericheningthe10yearpoint.Butincreasedbuyoutactivitycouldofferrelativel

9、ymesupptfthelongerendoftheRPIcurve.30April2019DanielaRussellHeadofUKRatesStrategyHSBCBankplcdaniela.russell@442079911352RealIdeasRates&EconomicsGlobalFeelingtheload3Rates&Economics●Global30April2019FuelfthoughtOilpricesh

10、averetreatedfromtheirsixmonthhighshavingpreviouslysurgedbyUSD25bblfromthelowpointinDecember.Whilethelatestweaknessmighthavebeenpartlydrivenbyprofittakingouroilanalystssuspectfurtherweaknessisahead(see‘Fuelfthought:Oilina

11、multiassetcontext’25April2019).TheyarguethatmuchoftheQ1rallywassupplydrivenresultingfromlowerthanexpectedOPECoutputconcernsoverfurtherreductionsinVenezuelanIraniansupply.ButtherearenowsignsthatUSactivityispickingupsothey

12、thinkoilpricesshouldreverttoanaveragepricetargetofUSD65.2bblf2019.ManyassetsarelinkedwithoiltoavaryingdegreebuthowimptantareoilpriceswingsfinflationbreakevensAlongsideourmultiassetstrategistswehaveconstructedacrelationma

13、trixwhichdisplaysthecrelationbetweenweeklychangesinoilinflationbreakevensoverthelastyear(Figure1).Darkerred–highernumbers–indicatestrongerpositivecrelations.OilisimptantftheUSfrontend…USbreakevensaremostsensitivetochange

14、sinoilpriceswiththestrongestrelationshipseenatthefrontendthecrelationthendecreasesasmaturityincreases.ThisisnotasurprisegiventherelativelyhighweightofenergyintheinflationbasketintheUSthelowertaxrateitsquickpassthroughint

15、oCPI.NeverthelesstheseresultssupptourcurrentpreferencefowninginflationprotectionfurtheroutthecurveintheUSaswellasour530yearbreakevensteepeningrecommendation(Table1).GlobalkeythemesDanielaRussellHeadofUKRatesStrategyHSBCB

16、ankplcdaniela.russell@442079911352MaxKettnerMultiAssetStrategistHSBCBankplcmaximilian.l.kettner@442079915045DuncanTomsMultiAssetStrategistHSBCBankplcduncan.toms@442079913025Changesinoilpriceshavehadthebiggestimpactonfron

17、tendUSbreakevens……whilethecrelationwithUKinflationisrelativelylowFigure1.OilpricesaremosthighlycrelatedwithfrontendbreakevensintheUSSource:HSBCBloombergBrentcrudeUS2YInflationUS5YInflationUS10YInflationEUR2YInflationEUR5

18、YInflationEUR10YInflationGBP2YInflationGBP5YInflationGBP10YInflationBrentcrude28US2YInflation7656US5YInflation648738US10YInflation47769331EUR2YInflation4344525146EUR5YInflation495666659129EUR10YInflation41536970829623GBP

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