輕工造紙行業(yè)中期年度報(bào)告包裝關(guān)注穩(wěn)增與主題，家居b端渠道加速興起

1、行業(yè)中期年度報(bào)告2敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)特別聲明內(nèi)容目錄內(nèi)容目錄輕工行業(yè)整體表現(xiàn)一般，個(gè)股擁有主題性投資機(jī)會(huì).........................................5截至目前，輕工制造行業(yè)跑輸滬深300........................................................5包裝印刷：板塊盈利修復(fù)將繼續(xù)，看好新型煙草和工業(yè)大麻兩大領(lǐng)域.............7板塊整體觀點(diǎn)未變

2、堅(jiān)定看好盈利向上改善....................................................7新型煙草發(fā)展趨勢(shì)已不可逆，國(guó)際市場(chǎng)迎來(lái)政策邊際變化............................7工業(yè)大麻主題年內(nèi)熱度仍有持續(xù)性.............................................................11家用輕工：政策深化推進(jìn)全裝修房屋，櫥柜和衛(wèi)浴受益明

3、顯.........................17年初至今，家用輕工板塊整體表現(xiàn)一般......................................................17年內(nèi)新增產(chǎn)能省份將成為定制家居企業(yè)增長(zhǎng)的重要區(qū)域.............................18全裝修政策持續(xù)深化，今年勢(shì)將成為工裝大年，利好櫥柜和衛(wèi)浴...............21造紙板塊：包裝紙短期有漲價(jià)可能不改全年

4、承壓預(yù)期，貿(mào)易戰(zhàn)對(duì)漿紙系品種影響有限..........................................................................................................24行業(yè)整體景氣度下行，企業(yè)增長(zhǎng)出現(xiàn)乏力..................................................24總結(jié)......................

5、.......................................................................................29風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示......................................................................................................30人民幣匯率劇烈波動(dòng)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)...........

6、............................................................30房地產(chǎn)銷售持續(xù)大幅下滑的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)................................................................30上市公司通過(guò)價(jià)格競(jìng)爭(zhēng)后，市占率提升不及預(yù)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn).............................30國(guó)內(nèi)卷煙產(chǎn)銷大幅下降的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)..........

7、..........................................................30侵犯IQOS專利保護(hù)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn).......................................................................30國(guó)內(nèi)新型煙草相關(guān)政策推進(jìn)不達(dá)預(yù)期的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)...............................................30環(huán)保政策松動(dòng)

8、，被關(guān)停產(chǎn)能復(fù)產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)......................................................30職業(yè)經(jīng)理人、核心技術(shù)人員或核心銷售人員流失的風(fēng)險(xiǎn).............................30商譽(yù)減值的風(fēng)險(xiǎn).........................................................................................30

9、圖表目錄圖表目錄圖表1：重點(diǎn)推薦公司估值與盈利預(yù)測(cè)............................................................5圖表2：年初至今輕工行業(yè)漲幅位列全行業(yè)第17名........................................5圖表3：輕工行業(yè)各子行業(yè)年初至今漲幅（%）..............................................6圖表

10、4：包裝印刷板塊營(yíng)收情況......................................................................6圖表5：包裝印刷板塊凈利潤(rùn)情況...................................................................6圖表6：包裝印刷板塊毛利率情況（%）....................................

11、....................6圖表7：包裝印刷板塊單季度毛利率情況（%）..............................................6圖表8：年初至今輕工行業(yè)漲幅前10個(gè)股......................................................7圖表9：紙包裝板塊毛利率情況...........................................

12、...........................720762565361392019051617:13行業(yè)中期年度報(bào)告4敬請(qǐng)參閱最后一頁(yè)特別聲明圖表49：造紙及紙制品行業(yè)銷售利潤(rùn)率（%）.............................................25圖表50：造紙及紙制品企業(yè)虧損加速...........................................................2

13、5圖表51：漿紙系紙品價(jià)格走勢(shì)......................................................................26圖表52：廢紙系紙品價(jià)格走勢(shì)......................................................................26圖表53：造紙行業(yè)收入增速..................................

14、.......................................26圖表54：造紙行業(yè)凈利潤(rùn)增速......................................................................26圖表55：造紙行業(yè)毛利率變化情況...............................................................26圖表56：造紙行業(yè)凈利潤(rùn)

15、率變化情況...........................................................26圖表57：2018年和2019年前7批外廢配額對(duì)比.........................................27圖表58：2019年前7批外廢配額前五名企業(yè)...............................................27圖表59：廢黃板紙價(jià)格走勢(shì)..

16、.......................................................................27圖表60：國(guó)際港口木漿庫(kù)存高企..................................................................28圖表61：中國(guó)在美進(jìn)口針葉漿情況................................................