模糊聚類分析在水文預報中的研究及應用.pdf

1、浙江大學建筑工程學院碩士學位論文模糊聚類分析在水文預報中的研究及應用姓名：邱超申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：水文學及水資源指導教師：劉國華20071101英文摘要AbstractFloodforecastingisbasedonthefloodformationandmovementrules，usingthepastandreal—timehydrologicalandmeteorologicalinformationTheflooddev

2、elopmentofthefuturewithinacertainperiodisforecastedandanalyzedFloodforecastingisanimportantnon—engineeringmeasuresfordisasterpreventionandplayanimportantroleasadvisorsandearsinthenationaleconomyUsingmathematicalmethodsto

3、describeandsimulatethehydrologicalcycleprocess，theconceptofthehydrologicmodelcomeintobeingHydrologymodelarisebyresearchhydrologiealphenomenaandthelawsofhydrologyandinthecontinuousdevelopmentandimprovementThepresentmodelw

4、idelyusedatmostisconceptualhydrologicalmodel，whichisofsomephysicalbasis，goodapplicabilityempirical，simplemodelstructureandgoodpracticalityTheinfluencefactorofhydrologicalforecastresultsismainlyhydrologymeteorologygeograp

5、hyandgeologyandotheruncertaintiesfactorsThesefactorshaveacertainrandomnessandfuzzinessItisthefocusofthisthesishowtostatisticallyanalyzetheseuncertaintiesfactorsbyusingfuzzyclusteranalysisandforecastreal—timefloodusingreg

6、ionalmaturerunoffconfluxconceptualmodelThisthesisisbasedonthefuzzyclusteringanalysisandthebasicprinciplesofmathematicsandaccordingtoinfluencefactortotheresultsofbasinhydrologicalforecastThehistoricalflooddatasamplesofCao

7、’ebasinisfuzzilyclassifiedusingfuzzyclusteranalysisbasedontheweightedcharacteristics，thenthedifferenttypesofhistoricalsamplesarerespectivelycalibratedonrunoffconfluxparametersCombininghydrologytheoryandforecastmodelOpera