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1、本科本科畢業(yè)論畢業(yè)論文外文翻文外文翻譯外文外文題目:目:TermsoftradeeconomicgrowthinJapanKea:anempiricalanalysis出處:EmpirEcon(2010)38:139–158作者:者:HockTsenWong原文:文:TermsoftradeeconomicgrowthinJapanKea:anempiricalanalysis1.IntroductionTermsoftradeterm
2、softradevolatilityhaveacriticalimpactoneconomicgrowthparticularlyduringwldepisodesofglobalintegrationdisintegrationwhenexptpricesconvergedivergewldwideinducinglargetermsoftradechangeseconomywideresponses.Howevertheirinfl
3、uenceisambiguous.Anincreaseintermsoftradecouldeitherleadtoanincreaseadecreaseineconomicgrowth.Generallyanincreaseintermsoftradewillleadtoanincreaseininvestmentthuseconomicgrowthwillincrease.MendozaBleaneyGreenawayBlattma
4、netal.amongstothersreptapositiveimpactoftermsoftradeoneconomicgrowth.Eicheretal.developanintertempalmodeltoexaminetheimpactofadecreaseintermsoftradeoncurrentaccountoutputwiththefocusonadevelopingcountry.Themodelshowsthat
5、adecreaseintermsoftradewillhaveanegativeeffectonincomewealth.Inthelongrunadecreaseintermsoftradewillleadtoaproptionaldecreaseinthedebtlevelofaneconomywhilstoutputcapitalbrowingwillnotchange.Thusachangeintermsoftradewillo
6、nlyaffecteconomicgrowthintheshtrunnotinthelongrun.Ahightermsoftradevolatilitywillleadtothereallocationofbothinputoutputbecauseofaversiontorisk.Thiswillinvolvecostslossesthuseconomicgrowthwilldecrease.Thisisparticularlyim
7、ptantwherehedgemarketsareincomplete.Empiricalstudiesintotheimpactoftermsoftradetermsoftradevolatilityoneconomicgrowtharedominatedbycrosscountryresearch.Nohelessitisinterestingtofoundtobeslowerincountrieswithhighertermsof
8、tradevolatility.BleaneyGreenawayexaminetheimpactoftermsoftradeoneconomicgrowthin14subSaharanAfricancountriesusingcrosssectionaldataftheperiod1980–1995.Theyfindthatanincreaseintermsoftradewillleadtoanincreaseineconomicgro
9、wth.HadassWilliamsonexaminetherelationshipbetweentermsoftradeeconomicgrowthusingcrosssectionaldataftheperiod1870–1940.Theyfindthatalthoughtermsoftrademovementfavoursprimaryproductexptersitreducestheireconomicgrowth.Meove
10、rthereisstrongevidenceofasymmetryineconomicgrowthbetweenthecetheperiphery.Generallytheimpactoftermsoftradeoneconomicgrowthisverysmallfboththecetheperiphery.Intheprewarperiodchangesintermsoftradeexplainedlessthanonefiftho
11、feconomicgrowthwhichisexpressedbytheGDPpercapitagrowthrate.NohelessthestudycoversfewofthedevelopingcountriesthatremainedpouptoWldWarII.OntheotherhBlattmanetal.analysemethanhalfacenturyofpreWldWarIIdata1870–1938f35countri
12、es.Theyfindthattermsoftradehaveasignificantimpactoneconomicgrowth.Meovertheimpactoftermsoftradeisgreaterontheperipherythaninthece.Adeclineintermsoftradeexperiencedbytheperipheryrepresentedasignificantdragoneconomicgrowth
13、duringthosesevendecades.Furthermethereisasymmetrybetweenthecetheperiphery.Termsoftradetermsoftradevolatilityseemtohaveplayedlittleroleinthecedespitethefactthattermsoftradevolatilitywerealmostashighintheceasontheperiphery
14、.5Howevertermsoftradeappeartohaveplayedanimptantroleinexplainingtheeconomicgrowthoftheperiphery.Thececouldescapethedamagingconsequencesoftermsoftradeinstabilityanescapethatwasapparentlyunavailabletoprimaryproductexpterso
15、ftheperiphery.Blattmanetal.employapaneldataanalysisf35countriesftheperiod1870–1939.Theyreptthesameconclusionstheyobtainedearlier.Theyfindthattermsoftradesecularchangelongrunchangehaveasignificantimpactoneconomicgrowth.6T
16、heimpactoftermsoftradesecularchangeismeimptantontheperipherythaninthece.Nohelesstermsoftradesecularchangeislessimptantthantermsoftradevolatilityfeconomicgrowth.Theimpactoftermsoftradediffersbetweenthecetheperiphery.Turno
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