2019年可轉(zhuǎn)債策略報告成長路，韶光不負

1、目錄轉(zhuǎn)債需要些整體視角......................................................................5以往更看重轉(zhuǎn)債的權(quán)益屬性............................................................................6正在形成的自身屬性........................................

2、................................................9參與者對市場的重塑.........................................................................................15發(fā)行：從穩(wěn)贏到保發(fā)，發(fā)行人、投行、投資者間的博弈...........................16發(fā)行人對轉(zhuǎn)債品種的理解加深，主動性大

3、幅提高.......................................18投資者：參與度在提高，關(guān)注配置型資金..................................................20參與轉(zhuǎn)債的姿勢與負債端和產(chǎn)品訴求有關(guān)..................................................22立足轉(zhuǎn)債特性，不負韶光.........................

4、.......................................................23向下的基本面V.S.積極的對沖.......................................................................24轉(zhuǎn)債權(quán)重行業(yè)：基本面整體偏淡.............................................................

5、.....26轉(zhuǎn)債定位：兩個二分法的視角......................................................................36重點個券跟蹤..................................................................................................41圖表49：通信（5G）對PCB增速拉動最甚.

6、...........................31圖表50：2018年前三季度化工子行業(yè)上市公司財務(wù)情況.................................32圖表51：草銨膦價格維持較高位置.....................................................................32圖表52：PTA景氣程度暫時高于下游滌綸......................

7、...................................32圖表53：光伏2018Q3裝機量明顯下滑，但棄光率顯著下降...........................33圖表54：平價后光伏市場空間有望打開.............................................................33圖表55：當前龍頭產(chǎn)能的高效產(chǎn)品已能夠滿足平價要求...................

8、...............33圖表56：單晶滲透率持續(xù)提升.............................................................................34圖表57：去補貼或政策沖擊下市場格局演變圖..................................................34圖表58：乘用車、卡車銷量增速均有下滑..................

9、.......................................35圖表59：汽車行業(yè)營業(yè)收入凈利潤同比增速均到達低點.................................35圖表60：新能源汽車銷量及電池需求量預(yù)測......................................................35圖表61：偏債標的平均YTM處于歷史較高水平.....................

10、..........................36圖表62：偏股標的溢價率與熊市底部還有差距..................................................37圖表63：規(guī)模與行業(yè)低位篩選轉(zhuǎn)債.....................................................................37圖表64：大規(guī)模個券的定位...................

11、..............................................................38圖表65：細分行業(yè)龍頭轉(zhuǎn)債也需要關(guān)注.............................................................38圖表66：細分行業(yè)龍頭轉(zhuǎn)債定位情況..........................................................

12、.......39圖表67：除重點關(guān)注標的之外的偏股標的.........................................................40圖表68：除重點關(guān)注標的之外的偏債標的.........................................................40圖表69：除重點關(guān)注標的之外的平衡型標的一覽.................................

13、.............40圖表70：東方財富業(yè)績情況.................................................................................41圖表71：常熟銀行成長性較高，且不良率較低..................................................42圖表72：光大銀行業(yè)績情況.......................

14、..........................................................42圖表73：寧波銀行ROE、撥備覆蓋率領(lǐng)先行業(yè).................................................43圖表74：三一重工業(yè)績情況..........................................................................

15、.......43圖表75：中航光電業(yè)績情況.................................................................................44圖表76：隆基股份業(yè)績情況.................................................................................44圖表77：林洋能源業(yè)績情況......

16、...........................................................................45圖表78：太陽紙業(yè)業(yè)績情況.................................................................................45圖表79：濟川藥業(yè)業(yè)績情況..................................

17、...............................................46圖表80：安井食品業(yè)績情況.................................................................................46圖表81：國泰君安業(yè)績情況..............................................................

18、...................47圖表82：玲瓏輪胎業(yè)績情況.................................................................................47圖表83：中科曙光業(yè)績情況.................................................................................48圖表84：桐昆