我國原油進口海上運輸通道安全保障研究.pdf

1、大連海事大學碩士學位論文我國原油進口海上運輸通道安全保障研究姓名：王彬申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：交通運輸規(guī)劃與管理指導教師：楊贊20090601英文摘要AbstractCrudeoil，knownasthebloodofmodernindustrywhichlubricatesitsoperations，isakindofindustrialmaterialsandstrategicmaterialsofgreatsignificance

2、toacountryChinaranksthefifthforcrudeoilproductionbutowingtobigdiscrepancyinvolumebetweenproductionandconsumptionChinakickedoffitscrudeoilimportin1990sandhaswimesscdannualgrowthssincethenAccordingtofiguresacquiredfromthec

3、ustoms，Chinaimported0179billiontonscrudeoilin2008，ofwhich01645billiontonswerecarriedbyships，accountingfor92％ofthetotalItfollowsthatitisofcriticalimportancetosafeguardthesecurityofthesealinesofcommunication(SLOCs)forcrude

4、oilimportofChinainordertoprotectourcountry’ScrudeoilstrategicsafetyThethesisfirstlyhasqualitativeanalysisonSLOCsforcrudeoilimportofChinaandfurtheritssignificanceandsafetystatus，introducestheconnotationsandclassifications

5、ofSLOCs，thenclassifiesSLOCsforcrudeoilimportofChinaandsummarizesfactorsaffectingthesafetyofSLOCsforcrudeoilimportofChinaBasedonthequalitativeanalysis，statisticsandeconomicsmethodsareadoptedtoanalyzeSLOCsforcrudeoilimport

6、ofChinalistedasgreypredictionmethod，cubicexponentialsmoothingmethodandBPneuralnetworkpredictionmethodforpredictionsoncrudeoilimportvolumebyseafrom2009to2013，Mid—AfricaChinashippingvolumeandMiddleEastChinashippingvolumere

7、spectivelyAndBPneuralnetworkhasbeenusedtomakeriskassessmentonsecurityfactorsaffectingSLOCsforcrudeoilimportofChinafromwhichtodrawaconclusionthatthenetworkispracticalandeffectiveinihisconnectionFinallybyanalyzingfactorsli

8、kecarriagequotanavigatingtimeforsinglevoyage，etc，thethesisestablishesquantitativemodelforidentificationoftransportcapacityscaleofoiltankerfleetandascertainssafetyoiltankertransportcapacityscaleofChinaunderdifferentperiod