空中交通管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析系統(tǒng).pdf

1、中國民航大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文空中交通管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)分析系統(tǒng)姓名：石榮申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：交通運(yùn)輸規(guī)劃與管理指導(dǎo)教師：丁松濱施和平20070303中國民航大學(xué)碩七學(xué)位論文AbstractAirtrafficmanagementsystemiSacomplexsystemnlerearesomeuncertainfactorsinthesafetyassessmentsuchasrandomnessandfuzzylackingofhistory

2、statisticaldamofaccidentsItdependsonexperts’knowledgeandexperiencetosolvetheseuncertainfactorsandtoevaluatethewholesystemaccordingtosafetystandardofairtramcmanagementsystemanditssubsystemsEvidencetheoryiSallimportanttool

3、toinvestigateuncertaintyproblemsSOweapplythistheoryintheassessmentonairtramCmanagementtoSOlvetheseproblemsThiSthesiscarriesoutinthissequence：TakingtheFormalSafetyAssessmentfFSA)astheguidingtheoryintheairtrafficmanagement

4、safetyassessmentAccordingtotheprinciplesandstepsofFSA，therearethreepartsinthepaperTheyareriskidentifying，riskevaluatingandputtingforwardsuggestionsonsafetyissuesrespectivelyFromthehuman，machine，environment，organizationpo

5、intofviewwedividetheaccidentattributingfactorsofair仃a伍Cmanagementsystemintofollrparts：humanfactor，machinefactor，environmentfactorandmanagementfactortoanalyzeitTheriskassessmentindexsystemofairtramCmanagementsafetysystemi

6、sestablishedIntheriskevaluatingpartasafetyanalysismodelbasedonevidencetheoryisalsoadvancedwhichprovidesthecornbinedalgorithmofevidencetheoryfortheairtrafficmanagementformalsafetyassessmentAt1astanexampleisraisedtovalidat

7、ethemodelandalgorithmandasuggestionaboutairtra佑cmanagementsafetysystemriskassessmentiSalsoproposedbasedonriskidentifyingandquantitativeresultsDatabaseaboutriskanalysisisestablishedandair拄afficmanagementriskanalysissoftwa

8、resystemiSalsodevelopednledevelopmentstepspivotaltechniqueandthemainfunctionofthissoftwaresystemarethoroughlyintroduced，Evidencetheoryisappliedtoair仃a伍cmanagementsafetysystemriskassessmenttentativelyforsolvingtheuncertai

9、ntyproblemsintheassessmentprocessAnanalyticalmodelandaspecificalgorithmbasedonevidencetheoryarealsoproposedAir仃a仿cmanagementriskanalysissoftwaresystemiSdevelopedandthemakesafoundationforitsfutureusing，Keywords：airtraffic