基于不確定性預(yù)期的中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)需求研究.pdf

1、中文摘要中文摘要擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需，關(guān)鍵在于增強(qiáng)消費(fèi)需求；擴(kuò)大城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)，根本在于經(jīng)濟(jì)的平穩(wěn)較快發(fā)展，分配制度和社會(huì)保障制度的改革，以及居民對(duì)未來(lái)確定性預(yù)期的增強(qiáng)。／“十二五一規(guī)劃綱要提出，要“建立擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)需求的長(zhǎng)效機(jī)制。把擴(kuò)大消費(fèi)需求作為擴(kuò)大內(nèi)需的戰(zhàn)略重點(diǎn)。’’顯然，在經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)軌時(shí)期和后危機(jī)時(shí)代，有效緩解居民對(duì)未來(lái)不確定性因素的擔(dān)憂，不斷提升城鄉(xiāng)居民的購(gòu)買(mǎi)力和預(yù)期消費(fèi)信心，對(duì)于增加居民消費(fèi)支出，進(jìn)而保持經(jīng)濟(jì)平穩(wěn)較快發(fā)展具有重要意義。本文結(jié)合馬克

2、思經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的消費(fèi)理論，在全面梳理西方經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)關(guān)于確定性消費(fèi)理論向不確定性消費(fèi)理論演變的基礎(chǔ)上，從不確定性視閾分析了20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái)中國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民的消費(fèi)需求特點(diǎn)及城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)行為的制約因素。當(dāng)然，研究中國(guó)居民消費(fèi)行為應(yīng)立足于居民賴以生存和發(fā)展的制度環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境。由此，在國(guó)內(nèi)外經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇仍存在諸多不確定性因素的背景下，本文圍繞經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)軌時(shí)期的制度不確定性和后危機(jī)時(shí)代的市場(chǎng)不確定性，借鑒不確定性消費(fèi)理論和數(shù)學(xué)模型，深刻剖析了當(dāng)前我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)過(guò)

3、程中所面臨的諸多不確定性因素，以及不確定性預(yù)期對(duì)我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)居民消費(fèi)需求的影響程度和變化趨勢(shì)。關(guān)鍵詞居民；不確定性；預(yù)期；消費(fèi)需求；后危機(jī)時(shí)代AbstractIIIrllIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIY1998458Expandingthedomesticdemand，thekeyistoenhanceconsumerdemandExpandingurbanandruralresidents’demand，thekeyistomainta

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