外文翻譯----風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理幸存者的前車之鑒

1、<p><b>　　原文:</b></p><p>　　Report from Davos: Risk Management Survivors Offer Cautionary Tales</p><p>　　Wharton management professor Michael Useem joined heads of state, politici

2、ans, CEOs, celebrities and others at this year's World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where, he says, the mood seemed to be one of muted optimism. But, as he points out, there was also a recognition of how muc

3、h still needs to be done to prevent the kinds of catastrophes -- both natural and created -- that changed the lives of so many individuals over the past two years. Useem, director of Wharton's Center for Leader</p

4、><p>　　Among the 2,500 business executives, political leaders and others who attended the 2011 meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, the mood was one of cautious recuperation from a self-induced, life-t

5、hreatening illness. The financial crisis had been surmounted but not without lingering frailties, especially the under-employment of the West. </p><p>　　The ongoing political upheavals in Tunisia and Egypt a

6、dded another crisis to the focus in Davos. The Forum arranged a special session on the unfolding actions in North Africa and the Middle East, and many participants sought frequent updates on the historic events, wonderin

7、g whether the street protests, in the words of the special session, were a "tipping point or tsunami," and whether they would result in a "soft landing or a bloody one." </p><p>　　Still,

8、cautious optimism prevailed among the national and corporate leaders in Davos that they had taken the right steps for at least the financial recovery. Not all their actions had worked, but on balance they had, and many o

9、f these leaders promised now to better prepare their agencies or enterprises to manage future threats in a world that has become ever more subject to low-probability but high-consequence events. </p><p>　　Th

10、e Haitian earthquake and BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico served as recent reminders that enormous catastrophes were not only financial -- and that much remained to be done for managing extreme risks in a world more vu

11、lnerable than ever to both natural and unnatural calamities. The agenda going forward: continue to monitor financial institutions and sovereign debt to prevent systemic collapse, build a learning network, redesign the bo

12、ard and rewire the mind. </p><p>　　Continuing Vigilance </p><p>　　Several of the more than 35 national leaders in Davos vowed to use their state powers to avoid any financial relapse. If governm

13、ents had learned anything from the near death experience of the crisis, it was to more effectively oversee risk takers and their short-term, self-interested decisions. </p><p>　　"We were standing on the

14、 brink of an abyss," said French President Nicolas Sarkozy of the financial crisis, "and we had to act." But new perils are now leading toward new brinks, he warned, including the teetering sovereign debt

15、of several European nations and a questioning of the euro. In the wake of the banking crisis, governments must again act boldly to prevent further upheaval. "The euro is Europe," he declared. "We will neve

16、r let the euro be destroyed."</p><p>　　German Chancellor Angela Merkel added her own defense of the currency, saying it is "the embodiment of Europe today. Should the euro fail, Europe will fail.&q

17、uot; She also sought tougher oversight of the players that had brought on the financial meltdown to begin with: "I always said there would be a new deck of cards on the table after the crisis," though governmen

18、ts have not yet managed to deal all the right cards. "Do we have the necessary mechanisms in place to ensure sustainable growth globally?</p><p>　　Similarly, U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner war

19、ned that, despite six quarters of GDP growth in the U.S., national leaders still had work to do to "take catastrophic risks out of the market." And U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron, observing that "given

20、the traumas of recent years, the recovery was always going to be choppy," argued that country officials had no choice but to continue to "modernize and adapt" their economies or otherwise "fall behind

21、 and fail." </p><p>　　Other country leaders cited additional perils that required still more measures. Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono worried about emerging conflicts over food, fuel and

22、water that threatened to elevate private "greed" over public "need." Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned of the continued "fragility of our condition," brought home just days before by

23、a devastating explosion in the Moscow airport. But he, too, cautioned that the economic recovery was not yet complete. Many "tend </p><p>　　Symptomatic of the heightened awareness of risk management, th

24、e Prime Minister of Japan, Naoto Kan, referenced the English utilitarian philosopher Jeremy Bentham's principle of creating the "greatest happiness" for the "greatest number." In an era in which t

25、he downsides of risk have become more severe, he said that the Japanese government under his leadership, by contrast, would stress policies that generate not the "greatest happiness" -- but rather "a socie

26、ty with the least unhappiness" -- for</p><p>　　Building a Learning Network</p><p>　　Given the global financial crisis and the devastating events in Haiti and the Gulf, it came as no surpris

27、e that the World Economic Forum, under the continuing leadership of founder Klaus Schwab, turned the spotlight at this year's 41st annual meeting on both the principles and strategies of risk management. The Forum la

28、unched a new Risk Response Network (RRN), an initiative to identify leading global risks and to better equip public, private and non-profit leaders with shared means for preventin</p><p>　　As part of the RRN

29、 initiative, an annual Global Risks report, already in its sixth year, will continue to rank global perils as one pillar of the new network (the Wharton Risk Management and Decision Processes Center collaborates in the a

30、nnual report's preparation). At the top of the report's ranking this year were the two inter-related risks of economic disparities and failing governance. The report warned that the benefits of globalization have

31、 not been evenly shared, and when combined with un</p><p>　　Two other RRN initiatives announced in Davos were intended to furnish country, company and NGO leaders with better tools for appraising risks and r

32、esponding to disasters. A new Leading Practices Exchange will provide them with guidance on how to manage and mitigate risks. And a Community of Risk Officers will establish a network for mutual learning and peer counsel

33、ing among those at the forefront of risk management. The first risks to be tackled by the new network include currency volatility, cy</p><p>　　With this initiative, the World Economic Forum has created an on

34、-going platform to give those engaged in risk management better access to detailed data, proven practices and experienced players. </p><p>　　By way of one example: A physician at the Davos meeting who had be

35、en active in recovery from the Haitian earthquake reported that in some areas, relief agencies provided fresh water to survivors free of charge, while in others a modest charge was imposed. The latter practice would help

36、 ration and allocate a still scarce resource, vital for recovery. But the physician found that cholera spread far more often through camps that charged for water than through camps that didn't charge, evidently bec&l

37、t;/p><p>　　Redesigning the Board </p><p>　　The governing board is potentially one of the most pivotal places for the introduction of risk management practices in the view of those attending an annu

38、al-meeting session on "Redesigning the Board." Chaired by Berkeley professor Laura D'Andrea Tyson, who serves on the boards of several publicly traded companies, the dialogue drew on the experience of Donal

39、d J. Gogel, CEO of Clayton, Dubilier & Rice; Richard Haythornthwaite, chair of MasterCard Worldwide; Kevin Kelly, CEO, Heidrick & Struggles;</p><p>　　Leaving aside the question of whether company boa

40、rds contributed to the recent financial crisis, the boardroom could serve as a barricade against the next crisis -- if properly redesigned. The board's traditional focus has been on "compliance, control and comp

41、ensation," fulfilling the oversight function mandated by both government regulators and listing requirements. But that is no longer sufficient, suggested several panel members. Directors should also be engaged in &q

42、uot;company strategy, talent d</p><p>　　To that end, directors should bring not just oversight capabilities to the boardroom. They should also be ready to challenge management practices, exercise independent

43、 judgment and resist when executive actions pose excessive risk. It goes the other way, too, suggested one veteran board member: "The worst thing is when a management team does not speak out." Directors, anothe

44、r participant pointed out, "want management to speak up with its concerns." For both sides to speak up, however, smaller bo</p><p>　　If boards were once more ceremonial than substantive, more honor

45、ary than productive, that is a dying tradition in an era when directors are increasingly called -- or demand -- to serve as strategic advisors. Several directors reported that their boards regularly conduct 360-degree fe

46、edback surveys of one another, inviting company executives to appraise their individual performance as well. One board chair even interviews every board member, asking for their appraisals of the other directors, and<

47、/p><p>　　If well redesigned, company boards can thus help their companies in "a race to the top" -- building long-term value and avoiding excessive short-term risks -- rather than permitting a "r

48、ace to the bottom" that had driven some companies into the cauldron of the crisis. In another session, JPMorgan Chase CEO James Dimon reported that his own board had played just such a role when the more recent Euro

49、pean sovereign crises materialized. With billions of dollars of European exposure and short-term lo</p><p>　　Rewiring the Mind </p><p>　　For individuals, there are few better opportunities for r

50、e-thinking risk management than those offered by studying one's own setbacks as well as the experiences of others. The annual meeting was fortunate to have included panels on "The Merits of Failure" and &qu

51、ot;Exploring the Extremes;" a session with Chesley Sullenberger, the USAir pilot who safely landed his aircraft in the Hudson River after both engines failed; and an event with adventurer Alison Levine, who has reac

52、hed the South Pole, North P</p><p>　　Working in extremely high stakes environments requires taking calculated risks, the antithesis of recklessness that had driven the sub-prime mortgage lending that sparked

53、 the financial crisis. And when critical decision points are reached -- going for a dangerous summit, landing a stricken aircraft -- a total focus on the task at hand and the ability to draw on a lifetime of experience a

54、re vital for surmounting the perils of the moment. </p><p>　　Cautionary Lessons for Managing Risk</p><p>　　Among the more unforgettable personal lessons from the World Economic Forum's focus

55、 this year on managing risk in a more risky world: Will-power is essential, calculate the risks, and focus on the goal at hand however stressful the moment -- whether restoring an economy, avoiding default, landing an ai

56、rcraft or climbing a summit. And among the more enduring company and country lessons: Complacency will kill you, good governance is essential, and learn from others' mistakes to avoid your own. </p><p>　

57、　The annual meeting in Davos served to reinforce a host of such messages. Between meetings, its Risk Response Network, Leading Practices Exchange and Community of Risk Officers will continue the Forum's efforts to pr

58、ovide better ways to anticipate, mitigate, and even prevent catastrophic risks from becoming the kinds of disasters that we have witnessed in the financial crisis, Haiti, the Gulf and beyond.</p><p><b>

59、;　　譯文:</b></p><p>　　達(dá)沃斯報(bào)告：風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理幸存者的前車之鑒</p><p>　　今年，各國政府首腦、政界精英、企業(yè)總裁及各界名人齊聚瑞士達(dá)沃斯世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇，沃頓商學(xué)院管理學(xué)教授、沃頓領(lǐng)導(dǎo)力與變革管理中心主任邁克爾·尤西姆（Michael Useem）在論壇上表示，論壇期間涌動(dòng)著謹(jǐn)慎樂觀的情緒。但是，他隨即指出，在過去兩年內(nèi)，各種自然災(zāi)害和人為災(zāi)難改

60、變了許多人的生活，因此仍有許多工作要做以免悲劇重演，與會(huì)者對(duì)此均已達(dá)成共識(shí)。尤西姆就本次達(dá)沃斯論壇發(fā)表了這份報(bào)告。</p><p>　　2011年，2,500位商界領(lǐng)導(dǎo)和政治人物出席了達(dá)沃斯世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇，論壇期間涌動(dòng)著宛如大病初愈后的謹(jǐn)慎復(fù)蘇的情緒。金融危機(jī)已經(jīng)克服，但是經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)仍不容樂觀，特別是西方國家的就業(yè)不足問題。</p><p>　　突尼斯和埃及最近發(fā)生的政變，則為達(dá)沃斯論壇增加了

61、另一個(gè)危機(jī)主題。就北非和中東的抗議行動(dòng)，論壇專門安排了一場(chǎng)特別會(huì)議，許多參會(huì)者不時(shí)要求獲得此次歷史事件的最新消息，同時(shí)思考這些街頭抗議行動(dòng)是否會(huì)成為特別會(huì)議所謂的“引爆點(diǎn)或海嘯”，以及是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致“軟著陸或血腥鎮(zhèn)壓”。</p><p>　　然而，出席達(dá)沃斯論壇的國家和企業(yè)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者普遍持有謹(jǐn)慎樂觀的態(tài)度，至少，他們?cè)诮?jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇方面采取的是正確的措施。并非所有的措施都是奏效的，但總體而言是有效果的，而且許多領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者在此承諾，

62、讓他們的部門或企業(yè)做好更加充足的準(zhǔn)備，更加有效地應(yīng)對(duì)未來的危機(jī)，因?yàn)楫?dāng)今世界越來越受到一些概率不高但后果嚴(yán)重的事件的影響。</p><p>　　海地地震災(zāi)害以及英國石油公司的墨西哥灣漏油事故給世人敲響了警鐘，這些事件表示，許多巨大的災(zāi)難不限于金融危機(jī)，而且在管理全球極端風(fēng)險(xiǎn)方面，仍有許多工作要做，尤其是在這個(gè)世界比以往任何時(shí)候都更加容易受到自然災(zāi)害和人為災(zāi)難破壞的時(shí)候。會(huì)議議程對(duì)將來進(jìn)行了展望：繼續(xù)對(duì)金融機(jī)構(gòu)和主

63、權(quán)債務(wù)進(jìn)行監(jiān)測(cè)以免發(fā)生系統(tǒng)崩潰、建立學(xué)習(xí)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、重新規(guī)劃董事會(huì)、重新梳理思路。</p><p><b>　　警鐘長鳴 </b></p><p>　　在出席達(dá)沃斯論壇的三十多位國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人當(dāng)中，有幾位領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人堅(jiān)決表示會(huì)動(dòng)用國家權(quán)力，以防止金融危機(jī)卷土重來。如果政府從危機(jī)中汲取了生死攸關(guān)的教訓(xùn)的話，他們將會(huì)更加有效地監(jiān)督風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)者及其短期的自利決策。</p>&l

64、t;p>　　“我們臨淵而立，”法國總統(tǒng)尼古拉·薩科奇就經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)說道，“我們必須采取行動(dòng)?！钡切碌奈C(jī)正在將我們引入新的深淵，他警告道，包括若干歐洲國家岌岌可危的主權(quán)債務(wù)以及對(duì)歐元前景的質(zhì)疑。緊隨金融危機(jī)之后，政府必須再次大刀闊斧地采取行動(dòng)，防止出現(xiàn)進(jìn)一步動(dòng)蕩局面?！皻W元是歐洲的命脈，”他說道，“我們絕不能讓歐元遭到破壞?！?lt;/p><p>　　德國總理安格拉·默克爾(Angela Me

65、rkel)也表示要堅(jiān)決捍衛(wèi)歐元，稱歐元是“現(xiàn)代歐洲的象征。歐元亡則歐洲亡?！彼€要求對(duì)一開始引發(fā)金融危機(jī)的機(jī)構(gòu)加強(qiáng)監(jiān)督，“我再三強(qiáng)調(diào)，在危機(jī)過后必須重新洗牌，”但是政府尚未能夠?qū)⑴迫坷眄?。“我們是否具備了必要的機(jī)制，來確保全球的可持續(xù)增長？我們已經(jīng)打好了基礎(chǔ)，”她說道，“但是我們還沒有落實(shí)到位?！?lt;/p><p>　　同樣地，美國財(cái)政部長蒂莫西·蓋特納也警告說，雖然美國實(shí)現(xiàn)了六個(gè)季度的GDP增長，但是

66、國家領(lǐng)導(dǎo)人仍然需要做大量工作，來“將巨災(zāi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)從市場(chǎng)清理干凈?！庇紫啻骶S·卡梅倫注意到，“鑒于近年來經(jīng)濟(jì)飽受創(chuàng)傷，因此，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇之路將會(huì)比較坎坷，”他指出，政府官員已經(jīng)別無選擇，必須使經(jīng)濟(jì)“實(shí)現(xiàn)現(xiàn)代化并順勢(shì)而為”，否則就會(huì)“落后和失敗?！?lt;/p><p>　　各國政府首腦也指出了不同的危機(jī)，以及仍然需要采取更多的措施來解決這些危機(jī)。印度尼西亞總統(tǒng)蘇西洛擔(dān)心糧食、能源、水資源不足引發(fā)的沖突，有可能會(huì)將私

67、人的“貪欲”上升至公共“需求”。俄羅斯總統(tǒng)梅德韋杰夫警告說，“我們的狀況”仍舊一如既往地“脆弱不堪”，前幾天，國內(nèi)又發(fā)生莫斯科機(jī)場(chǎng)爆炸慘劇。但是，他同時(shí)告誡道，經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇仍未完成。很多人“放言說全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)已經(jīng)告終，”他指出，“但是，情況顯然沒有那么簡單?！彪m然“經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)敲醒了所有人，但我們應(yīng)對(duì)的只是危機(jī)的一部分癥狀，而且到目前為止，我們還沒有找到一個(gè)發(fā)展模式?！?lt;/p><p>　　在提高對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理癥狀的意識(shí)方面

68、，日本首相菅直人引用了英國功利主義哲學(xué)家杰里米·邊沁的理論：為“最大多數(shù)人”創(chuàng)造“最大的幸福”。當(dāng)今社會(huì)，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的負(fù)面影響日益嚴(yán)重，而在他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，日本政府將把重點(diǎn)放在一些政策上，這些政策不是為最大多數(shù)民眾帶來“最大的幸?！?，而是“將社會(huì)的不滿減少到最低程度”。</p><p><b>　　建立學(xué)習(xí)網(wǎng)絡(luò)</b></p><p>　　由于全球經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)和海地及海灣

69、的災(zāi)難事件，因此，在世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇創(chuàng)始人克勞斯·施瓦布的繼續(xù)領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下，論壇將今年第41屆會(huì)議的主題聚焦于風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的原則和策略方面。論壇推出了全新的“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)”(RRN)，這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃旨在確定全球的主要風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，讓公共部門、私營部門和非營利組織的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者，更好地使用相同的方法來預(yù)防、預(yù)測(cè)或應(yīng)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。</p><p>　　作為風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃的一部分，已經(jīng)連續(xù)發(fā)布了六年的年度全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)報(bào)告將繼續(xù)對(duì)全球風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行排名，這也

70、是新建網(wǎng)絡(luò)的重要內(nèi)容之一(沃頓商學(xué)院風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理與決策過程研究中心協(xié)同制定年度報(bào)告)。今年在報(bào)告中排名最前的是兩個(gè)相互關(guān)連的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)即經(jīng)濟(jì)差異和治理失敗。報(bào)告指出，全球化的效益尚未得到平均分享，而且在和沒有響應(yīng)或效率低下的機(jī)制相結(jié)合時(shí)，很可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生“民族主義和民粹主義”。很顯然，正是在這種有害的結(jié)合中的這些因素的刺激下，民眾開始反抗，試圖推翻突尼斯和埃及國內(nèi)長期存在但治理不佳的體制。</p><p>　　達(dá)沃斯論壇還推出

71、了其他兩個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)劃，旨在為國家、企業(yè)和非政府組織領(lǐng)導(dǎo)者提供更好的工具，來進(jìn)行風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估和災(zāi)難應(yīng)對(duì)。新的“領(lǐng)先實(shí)踐交流”將為他們提供關(guān)于如何管理和減輕風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的指導(dǎo)。“風(fēng)險(xiǎn)執(zhí)行官社區(qū)”將建立一個(gè)相互學(xué)習(xí)和同行咨詢的網(wǎng)絡(luò)社區(qū)，研討風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的前沿問題。新的網(wǎng)絡(luò)社區(qū)將要首先處理的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)包括匯率波動(dòng)性、網(wǎng)絡(luò)安全和資源稀缺等。</p><p>　　依托這項(xiàng)計(jì)劃，世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇已建立了持續(xù)運(yùn)作的平臺(tái)，讓那些參與風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的人員更好

72、地獲得詳細(xì)的數(shù)據(jù)、經(jīng)實(shí)踐證明有效的做法以及經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的參與者。</p><p>　　舉例來講，在達(dá)沃斯論壇會(huì)議上，一位在海地地震期間積極參與災(zāi)區(qū)重建工作的醫(yī)生在報(bào)告中指出，在一些地區(qū)，救援機(jī)構(gòu)向幸存者提供免費(fèi)淡水，在另一些地區(qū)，對(duì)發(fā)放淡水收取少量費(fèi)用。后者的做法可以幫助解決稀缺資源的合理分配問題，這些資源對(duì)于災(zāi)后重建是至關(guān)重要的。但是醫(yī)生發(fā)現(xiàn)，和免費(fèi)發(fā)放淡水的營地相比，發(fā)放收費(fèi)淡水的營地的霍亂疫情要嚴(yán)重得多，很顯然

73、，即使收取很少的費(fèi)用，也會(huì)讓幸存者減少在個(gè)人衛(wèi)生和烹制食物時(shí)的用水量。雖然針對(duì)飲用水收取象征性的費(fèi)用具有良好的經(jīng)濟(jì)意義，但是事實(shí)上，這種做法在公共衛(wèi)生方面是否具有意義仍是一個(gè)問號(hào)。</p><p><b>　　重新規(guī)劃董事會(huì) </b></p><p>　　在參加“重新規(guī)劃董事會(huì)”討論會(huì)的人看來，管理董事會(huì)可能是推進(jìn)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理實(shí)踐的最關(guān)鍵所在。該討論會(huì)的主席為加州大學(xué)伯克

74、利分校教授Laura D'Andrea Tyson，他還是多家上市公司的董事會(huì)成員。會(huì)上有各家企業(yè)總裁展開對(duì)話和經(jīng)驗(yàn)交流，其中包括Clayton, Dubilier & Rice的首席執(zhí)行官Donald J. Gogel、萬事達(dá)卡國際組織董事長Richard Haythornthwaite、海德思哲咨詢公司(Heidrick & Struggles)首席執(zhí)行官Kevin Kelly、Algebris投資公司的執(zhí)行

75、合伙人Davide Serra、以及諾華公司(Novartis)董事長Daniel Vasella。</p><p>　　即使不談公司董事會(huì)是否是造就最近的金融危機(jī)的原因，但是如果能對(duì)董事會(huì)進(jìn)行適當(dāng)?shù)闹匦乱?guī)劃，董事會(huì)還是能為抵擋下一次危機(jī)做出貢獻(xiàn)的。一直以來，董事會(huì)的工作重點(diǎn)是“合規(guī)、控制及報(bào)酬，”即符合監(jiān)管部門的規(guī)定和上市公司必須具備的各項(xiàng)要求。但是，僅做到這些是不夠的。與會(huì)成員指出，各位董事還應(yīng)當(dāng)參與“公司戰(zhàn)

76、略、人才發(fā)展和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理”，即不僅僅是要“喂飽野獸”，即為投資者提供預(yù)期的季度回報(bào)，還要“發(fā)展業(yè)務(wù)”，即向高層管理者提供有關(guān)戰(zhàn)略方向和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的建議。</p><p>　　為此，董事們不但要具備監(jiān)管能力，還要隨時(shí)能夠挑戰(zhàn)管理實(shí)踐、鍛煉獨(dú)立判斷能力，以及當(dāng)管理行為造成過多風(fēng)險(xiǎn)時(shí)進(jìn)行抵制。也可能產(chǎn)生另外一種情況，一位資深的董事會(huì)成員說道：“最糟糕的情況就是管理層沒有大聲說出意見。”另一位與會(huì)者指出，“希望管理層將問題大聲說

77、出來?！钡牵瑢?duì)于將要大聲發(fā)言的雙方而言，規(guī)模較小的董事會(huì)論壇的效果更佳?！捌叩桨藗€(gè)人可以討論戰(zhàn)略，”一位公司治理專家指出，“而15個(gè)人的董事會(huì)這么做就不行?！?lt;/p><p>　　董事們?cè)絹碓蕉嗟乇灰笞鳛閼?zhàn)略顧問而存在，在這樣的一個(gè)時(shí)代，如果董事會(huì)更多的是形式上的而非實(shí)質(zhì)性的，更多的是名譽(yù)性的而非有實(shí)際成果的，那么這就是一個(gè)垂死的傳統(tǒng)體系。多個(gè)董事指出，他們所在的董事會(huì)定期相互進(jìn)行全方位反饋調(diào)查，并邀請(qǐng)公司高

78、層來對(duì)他們的個(gè)人績效進(jìn)行評(píng)測(cè)。有一位董事長甚至對(duì)董事會(huì)成員進(jìn)行逐一訪談，詢問他們對(duì)其他董事的測(cè)評(píng)情況，然后回過頭來使用反饋資料，就各位董事對(duì)董事會(huì)的貢獻(xiàn)提出表揚(yáng)，同時(shí)也指出各位董事需要“改進(jìn)”的某個(gè)方面。另一位擁有豐富的董事會(huì)經(jīng)驗(yàn)的董事發(fā)現(xiàn)，向每一位董事提出的一個(gè)最佳問題就是，“如果你是公司唯一的股東，你想讓這個(gè)人留在董事會(huì)嗎？”</p><p>　　如果重新規(guī)劃得當(dāng)，董事會(huì)可以在公司“力爭上游”過程中助上一臂之

79、力，樹立長期價(jià)值觀，避免過多的短期風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，而不是眼睜睜地看著公司在“力爭下游”中陷入重重危機(jī)。在另一場(chǎng)會(huì)議上，摩根大通首席執(zhí)行官杰米·戴蒙表示，當(dāng)最近出現(xiàn)歐洲主權(quán)債務(wù)危機(jī)的時(shí)候，他的董事會(huì)就是擔(dān)當(dāng)這樣的角色。隨著歐洲數(shù)十億美元的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的出現(xiàn)以及可能發(fā)生的短期虧損，他的董事會(huì)再次建議緊縮開支?！拔覀儽仨氉龅嚼硇院椭?jǐn)慎，”他的董事們?nèi)缡钦f，“我們對(duì)歐洲采取的是長期戰(zhàn)略，我們是為許多歐洲企業(yè)服務(wù)的，”即便存在經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)，也要保持投資狀態(tài)，

80、這是完全正確的。</p><p><b>　　重新梳理思路</b></p><p>　　對(duì)個(gè)人而言，和那些可以對(duì)自身遭遇的挫折和其他人的經(jīng)驗(yàn)進(jìn)行研究的人相比，很少人能有機(jī)會(huì)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理進(jìn)行反思。本次年度會(huì)議有幸納入了兩場(chǎng)主題研討會(huì)“引擎失靈后的功勛”(The Merits of Failure)以及“探索極限”(Exploring the Extremes)，這場(chǎng)研討會(huì)

81、的討論主題是全美機(jī)長切斯利·薩倫伯格的英勇事跡，在飛機(jī)的兩個(gè)發(fā)動(dòng)機(jī)全部失靈的情況下，駕駛飛機(jī)在哈德遜河緊急迫降；另外一個(gè)主題則是探險(xiǎn)家艾莉森·萊文的事跡，她曾經(jīng)滑雪到南極和北極，攀登過珠穆朗瑪峰。</p><p>　　在極端的高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)環(huán)境下工作需要對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行精心計(jì)算，這與次貸危機(jī)中的盲目行事是截然不同的，而次貸危機(jī)也是引爆金融危機(jī)的導(dǎo)火索。在面臨重要決策的時(shí)刻，比如攀登危險(xiǎn)的頂峰，操控一架引擎失

82、靈的飛機(jī)緊急迫降，全神貫注于眼前的任務(wù)，同時(shí)利用畢生積累的重要經(jīng)驗(yàn)，這些能力對(duì)于戰(zhàn)勝眼前的危機(jī)是至關(guān)重要的。</p><p><b>　　風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的前車之鑒</b></p><p>　　今年的世界經(jīng)濟(jì)論壇列舉了許多令人難忘的個(gè)人經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)，其重點(diǎn)是如何在危機(jī)重重的背景下管理風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：意志力是必需的，對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)要進(jìn)行精密計(jì)算，還要專注于眼前的目標(biāo)，無論此時(shí)此刻的壓力有多么巨大，這

83、對(duì)于經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇、預(yù)防故障的發(fā)生、操控飛機(jī)緊急迫降、或是攀登高峰無一例外。而那些持久不衰的企業(yè)和國家，他們提供的經(jīng)驗(yàn)教訓(xùn)就是：滿足現(xiàn)狀是致命的，良好的治理是必需的，要從其他人的錯(cuò)誤中汲取教訓(xùn)，以免重蹈覆轍。</p><p>　　在達(dá)沃斯舉行的年度大會(huì)旨在對(duì)這類信息予以強(qiáng)化。在各場(chǎng)研討會(huì)之中，風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)網(wǎng)絡(luò)、領(lǐng)先實(shí)踐交流以及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)執(zhí)行官的網(wǎng)絡(luò)都將延續(xù)論壇的這種精神，致力于提供更好的方法來預(yù)測(cè)、減輕、乃至避免災(zāi)難性風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的發(fā)