連徐高速公路后評價交通量預(yù)測研究.pdf

1、南京航空航天大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文連徐高速公路后評價交通量預(yù)測研究姓名：沈柳申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：管理科學(xué)與工程指導(dǎo)教師：劉思峰20060101南京航空航天大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文vAbstractTrafficflowfecastingisamecomplexsystematicprojectproblemisthebasicbasisthathighwaygradedeterminesisthedefiniteprojectsocialbasi

2、cdataofeconomicbenefitstherefetrafficfecastingisveryimptanttoconstructionprojectfeasibilityresearchofhighwaythepostevaluation.ThispaperresearchesontrafficflowfecastingofLianXuexpresswayofpostevaluation.Atfirstthepaperint

3、roducesthetopicresearchbackgroundthesignificanceatthesametimehascarriedonthesummaryofthedomesticfeigntrafficflowfecasting’smethodsthenduetosmallsamplefecastingcategychosethegraysystemtheythesupptvectmachinetheythatspecia

4、llybelongtosmallsamplefecastingtechnology.FinallyaftertrafficprimarydatabeingqualitativequantitativeanalysisdeterminesvolumeoftrafficfoundationdatawhichfecastfecastsLianXuexpressway.Thisarticlemaininnovationspotincludes:

5、1stinviewofLianXuexpresswayvolumeoftrafficgatheringdatanotintegritynotdefinitesituationcarriesonmanykindsoffecastmodeltofillthedata’svacancytorevisethedatatoenhancethefecastaccuracy2ndappliesthegreydataaccumulationtointh

6、esupptvectmachinetheythetrendcurvefittingfecastmethods3rdinviewofLianXuexpressway’svariousroadsectionsdataundulationacteristicsmanykindsofstrengthenedoperatattenuatedoperatseparatelytoprocesstheprimarydatafecaststhevolum

7、eoftrafficinthisfoundation4thcomparinggreysequencetrafficvolumefecasting’sresultlinearreturnfecast’sofvolumeoftrafficGDPdiscoversthegreysequencefecast’sresultconfmstothereality.Keywds:TrafficFlowfecastGraySystemTheyGM(11