大宗商品研究2019~2020金屬展望，供應(yīng)分化區(qū)別表現(xiàn)，從超?；貧w平淡

1、目錄鐵礦石：供應(yīng)增長放緩，過剩收窄............................................................................................................................3鋼鐵：從超常利潤回歸平淡，供需緊張有所緩解.........................................................

2、..............................................5銅：價格隱含市場過度悲觀的評估，基本面仍然良好................................................................................................7鋅：供應(yīng)端逐漸回升，但精煉產(chǎn)量仍受制于環(huán)保................................

3、.......................................................................9鋁：氧化鋁偏緊局面將改善，電解鋁市場維持短缺..................................................................................................10鎳：供給端加速投放削弱鎳價上行動能.........

4、..........................................................................................................11圖表圖表1:18年前三個季度鐵礦石價格相對缺乏波動性........................................................3圖表2:球團礦溢價情況..................

5、..............................................................3圖表3:預計2019年全球生鐵產(chǎn)量同比小幅增長0.7%...........................................................................................................4圖表4:廢鋼的添加使得生鐵粗鋼比趨于下行..

6、............................................................4圖表5:鐵礦石市場供需平衡表..........................................................................4圖表6:中國鋼鐵市場供需平衡表.......................................................

7、.................5圖表7:各大鋼材噸鋼毛利測算情況......................................................................6圖表8:19月全國粗鋼產(chǎn)量同比增長了6.1%左右..........................................................6圖表9:18年房屋新開工面積和房地產(chǎn)投資維持高位........

8、................................................6圖表10:汽車產(chǎn)量和銷售情況...........................................................................6圖表11:全球精煉銅供需平衡預測.................................................................

9、......7圖表12:目前為止礦端的干擾率明顯低于市場此前預期.....................................................7圖表13:近幾個月中國冶煉廠TC回升表明礦端依舊充裕....................................................7圖表14:1116年隨著銅價的下跌礦山面臨著較大的壓力............................

10、........................8圖表15:銅礦擴張性投資從13年的高點回落近60%..............................................................................................................8圖表16:在基本情形下未來主要增產(chǎn)礦山情況......................................

11、.......................8圖表17:未來幾年世界主要銅礦生產(chǎn)國產(chǎn)量在逐漸收縮.....................................................8圖表18:受到之前資本投資收縮的影響銅礦產(chǎn)量迅速下降...................................................8圖表19:全球鋅精礦和精煉鋅供需平衡預測...................

12、............................................9圖表20:LME期鋅價格和交易所庫存情況.................................................................9圖表21:鋅精礦加工費的快速回升表明礦端緊張正在過去...................................................9圖表22:全球氧化鋁和

13、電解鋁供需平衡預測..............................................................10圖表23:LME期鋁價格和交易所庫存情況................................................................10圖表24:電解鋁供需平衡測算...............................................

14、...........................10圖表25:全球精煉鎳供需平衡預測......................................................................11圖表26:NPI在供給端的占比發(fā)生了快速的擴張...........................................................11圖表27:未來幾年供給端的增長主要由N

15、PI投產(chǎn)拉動......................................................11圖表28:全球精煉鎳下游消費測算......................................................................12圖表29:LME期鎳價格和交易所庫存情況..................................................

16、..............12圖表30:19年不銹鋼的產(chǎn)量增長主要來自中國和印尼......................................................12圖表31:2014年電池在精煉鎳的下游消費占比有望增長到32%，逐漸成長為拉動下游消費的重要一極............12圖表3:預計2019年全球生鐵產(chǎn)量同比小幅增長0.7%圖表4:廢鋼的添加使得生鐵粗鋼比趨于下行Mt100080060040

17、02000中國生鐵產(chǎn)量其他國家生鐵產(chǎn)量14001300120011001000900800700600500萬噸85008000750070006500600055005000粗鋼產(chǎn)量生鐵產(chǎn)量粗鋼生鐵（右軸）0.90.880.860.840.820.80.78資料來源：CRU，資料來源：萬得資訊，圖表5:鐵礦石市場供需平衡表201620172018E2019E2020E2021E2022E中國1279123212211199118111

18、681151東北亞222220222229232234236歐洲106111116117117119118東南亞10151926293133印度6615121366中東和北非29333746505859其他36354344454646總需求1689165416721673166816621649YoY2.1%1.1%0.1%0.3%0.4%0.8%Vale314328355364371372372RioTinto329330336334

19、321320323BHP262268273281281276276FMG172171171172172179182Kumba41454545444444MinasRio1617315232626RoyHill23425055555555中國231216209193186178173其他290274240223227225218總供給1680169016831682168016741669YoY0.6%0.4%0.1%0.1%0.4%0.