inflation通脹

1、Thecentralprobleminthestockmarketisthatthereturnoncapitalhasn’trisenwithinflation.Itseemstobestuckat12percent.1Itisnolongerasecretthatstockslikebondsdopolyinaninflationaryenvironment.Wehavebeeninsuchanenvironmentfmostoft

2、hepastdecadeithasindeedbeenatimeoftroublesfstocks.Butthereasonsfthestockmarketsproblemsinthisperiodarestillimperfectlyunderstood.股票市場的資本回報率沒有隨著通貨膨脹而上升，而似乎是停滯在了12%股票在通貨膨脹環(huán)境下像債券一樣表現(xiàn)不佳，這已經(jīng)不是個秘密。在過去10年里，我們一直處于這種通脹環(huán)境里。確實，這是一個

3、股票遇到麻煩的時期。但是，在這段時間里造成股票市場難題的原因仍然沒有被人們完全理解。2Thereisnomysteryatallabouttheproblemsofbondholdersinaneraofinflation.Whenthevalueofthedollardeteriatesmonthaftermonthasecuritywithincomeprincipalpaymentsdenominatedinthosedollar

4、sisntgoingtobeabigwinner.YouhardlyneedaPh.D.ineconomicstofigurethatoneout.在通脹時期債券持有者所遇到的問題一點也不神秘。當美元月復一月地貶值，一種本金和收入都用美元支付的證券不會是個大贏家。fixedwhilethereturnonanequityinvestment(thecompanysearnings)canvarysubstantiallyfromoney

5、eartoanother.Trueenough.Butanyonewhoexaminestheaggregatereturnsthathavebeenearnedbycompaniesduringthepostwaryearswilldiscoversomethingextradinary:thereturnsonequityhaveinfactnotvariedmuchatall.我知道我的主張對很多投資者來說顯得古怪。他們馬上就觀察

6、到債券的回報（利息）是固定的，而股票投資的回報（盈利）會每年變化極大。這確實是事實。但是，任何研究戰(zhàn)后公司總體回報的人都會發(fā)現(xiàn)一個現(xiàn)象：資本回報率實際上并沒有變化那么多。A.Thecouponissticky停滯的息票6Inthefirsttenyearsafterthewarthedecadeendingin1955theDowJonesindustrialshadanaverageannualreturnonyearendequit

7、yof12.8percent.Intheseconddecadethefigurewas10.1percent.Inthethirddecadeitwas10.9percent.DatafalargeruniversetheFTUNE500(whosehistygoesbackonlytothe1950s)indicatesomewhatsimilarresults:11.2percentinthedecadeendingin19651