試論風險投資項目中風險因素的估測與度量.pdf

1、復旦大學碩士學位論文試論風險投資項目中風險因素的估測與度量姓名：武東曉申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：世界經濟指導教師：張紀康2000.5.1AftSfIA(：VenturecapitalhasbeengainingenormousmomentumtoblossominChinainthatithasdevelopedfromanoveltopictoahotissueinjustyearsItplaysanunparalleledrolein

2、facilitatingthetransformationofscienceandtechnologyintealproductivityFeaturedbyhighrisk，highreturnandhighgrowthpotential，venturecapitalhasbeengainingescalatingpopularityCurrently，thehightechinnovationasashareeconomicgrow

3、thinChinaisonly20％，whereasthefigureisashighasover60％inwesterncountriesThelaginChina’shightechdevelopmentliesinthelowtransformationrateofscienceandtechnologyintealproductivity，whilethescarcityofcapital／fundconstitutestheb

4、ottleneckofthelowrateFromtheexperienceofothercountries，ChinashouldvigorouslypromoteitsventurecapitalindustryinordertoefficientlycoupwiththeabovepredicamentHightechproductsgenerallyinvolvegreatuncertaintythusrisk，whichtoa

5、greatextentconstrainsthemutualdevelopmentofventurecapitalandhigh—techindustriesTherefore，itiscrucialtoassessandmeasuretheriskfactorsinvolvedinthetargetedhightechprojectsThisprocessprovidesthefinancin【g／investmentdecision

6、makerswithnotonlymoreadequateiuformationbutalsomorereliablebenchmarkTheobjectivesofthisthesisaretomakeanoverallstudyoftheventurecapitalindustry，hightechproducts，aswellasriskanduncertainty，toanalyzetraditionalriskassessme

7、ntandmeasurementmethods，andtoestablishasetofmethodstoassessandmeasuretheriskfactorsinvolvedinthehightechprojectstargetedbyventurecapitalThisthesisconsistsoffivechapters：Thefistchapterestablishesageneralframeworkofventure

8、capitalandriskfactorsbyintroducingtheconceptofventurecapital，itscharacteristicsandoperations，anddescribingcertainventurecapitalinvestmentprojectsinforeigncountriesThesecondchapterconsidersthedefinitionofriskanduncertaint

9、yandanalyzesthefeaturesofhighteehprojectsselectedbyventurecapitalTheriskfactorsareclassifiedandelaboratedBasedonthediscussionofriskassessmentandmeasurementmethods，thethirdchapterestablishesconstructionchartandassessmentm

10、atrixtocalculatetheweightofeachriskfactorindexThefourthchapterintroducesseveraIriskandreturnanalysismethodsandanalyzestheinfluenceofthefluctuationofeachriskfactoronprojectrefurnbyusingsensitivityanalysisandsimulationmode

11、lThefifthchapteroffersacasestudyinthattheriskfactorsinvolvedjnaspecificventurecapitalprojectareassessedandmeasuredTheevaluationofthemethoditselfisalsoconsideredKeyWords：VentureCapital，RiskFactor，AssessmentandMeasurementS