2019年基礎化工行業(yè)年度策略報告農(nóng)藥高景氣望延續(xù)，新材料配置正當時

1、正文目錄正文目錄一、中長期判斷：行業(yè)景氣下行，關注細分領域高成長...............................51.1基礎化工行業(yè)景氣度見頂....................................................51.2成本端：原油價格迎超預期下跌，煤炭、天然氣價格總體平穩(wěn)....................71.3供給端：禁止“一刀切”帶來邊際寬松，新增產(chǎn)能將密集投放........

2、..............71.4需求端：內(nèi)需乏力，貿(mào)易摩擦加劇出口壓力....................................9二、周期板塊：把握細分領域機會，看好農(nóng)藥板塊..................................102.1農(nóng)藥行業(yè)延續(xù)高景氣，龍頭企業(yè)強者恒強.....................................102.2環(huán)保政策仍不放松，農(nóng)藥價格有望高位維持......

3、.............................122.3細分龍頭盈利狀況有望維持，農(nóng)藥板塊存在估值提升空間.......................142.4相關標的.................................................................15三、成長板塊：新材料崛起正當時，關注電子化學品和其他新材料....................163.1電子化學品：市場

4、極具爆發(fā)潛力，進口替代成契機.............................163.1.1濕電子化學品.........................................................183.1.2電子氣體.............................................................183.1.3CMP材料.......................

5、.....................................193.1.4光刻膠...............................................................203.1.5相關標的.............................................................203.2其他新材料............................

6、...................................223.2.1光伏封裝材料.........................................................223.2.2高分子材料抗老化助劑.................................................243.2.3微纖玻璃棉材料...................................

7、....................253.2.4改性塑料與特種工程塑料...............................................263.2.5相關標的.............................................................27風險提示.........................................................