電力設(shè)備與新能源行業(yè)2019年度策略報告擁抱變革，連接未來

1、目錄1.復(fù)盤：跌宕起伏復(fù)盤：跌宕起伏中前行前行..........................................................................................................................................................................72.新能源車：下游新能源車：下游需求旺盛，行業(yè)發(fā)展無

2、憂求旺盛，行業(yè)發(fā)展無憂..........................................................................................................................................82.1汽車電動化趨勢不改..........................................................

3、........................82.2補貼退坡預(yù)計仍將延續(xù)...............................................................................102.3新能源車產(chǎn)銷量一枝獨秀.............................................................................112.4中游競爭漸

4、入白熱化.................................................................................142.4.1動力電池：寧德時代一騎絕塵...................................................................142.4.2正極材料：NCM811將是未來..........................

5、.........................................162.4.3負極：能量密度提升方向不改...................................................................192.4.4電解液：關(guān)注供給對價格的影響.................................................................212.4.

6、5隔膜：濕法隔膜市占比不斷提升.................................................................232.4.6電機與電控：國產(chǎn)化提升空間巨大...............................................................252.5投資策略：聚焦能量密度提升.....................................

7、....................................262.5.1當(dāng)升科技（300073）：布局高鎳正極產(chǎn)能，NCM811領(lǐng)頭羊..................................................................................262.5.2璞泰來（603659）：負極盈利能力突出.....................................

8、..................................................................................263.光伏：政策回暖光伏：政策回暖，守得云開見月明守得云開見月明.........................................................................................................

9、...........................................273.1政策急剎車，冰火兩重天的2018..............................................................................................................................273.2政策及需求回暖助行業(yè)走出陰霾...........

10、............................................................283.3高效單晶電池引領(lǐng)行業(yè)發(fā)展方向.......................................................................303.3.1提升轉(zhuǎn)換效率是降低成本的重要手段...............................................

11、..............303.3.2N型電池片轉(zhuǎn)換效率上限更高....................................................................313.3.3P型電池：PERCSE提升中短期天花板..........................................................323.3.4N型電池：TOPConHJT電池打開新格局......

12、...................................................343.4平價上網(wǎng)加速到來...................................................................................363.4.1產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈價格大幅調(diào)整，加速平價過程..................................................

13、...........373.4.2優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)能成本優(yōu)勢對沖產(chǎn)能利用率下降...........................................................393.4.3具備光照及電價優(yōu)勢地區(qū)將率先實現(xiàn)平價.........................................................443.5與電網(wǎng)協(xié)同推進能源清潔化...........................

14、................................................463.5.1配額制為新能源消納提供政策保障...............................................................463.5.2特高壓為新能源消納提供技術(shù)保障...............................................................47

15、3.6投資策略：甄選優(yōu)質(zhì)產(chǎn)能釋放的頭部公司...............................................................483.6.1通威股份（600483）：用先進產(chǎn)能引領(lǐng)發(fā)展...........................................................................................................

16、....483.6.2隆基股份（601012）：單晶替代趨勢下最大的受益者...............................................................................................484.風(fēng)電：消納改善風(fēng)電：消納改善，海上風(fēng)電引風(fēng)潮海上風(fēng)電引風(fēng)潮.......................................................

17、.............................................................................................494.12019年風(fēng)電將進入競價時代..........................................................................494.2消納改善促運營商業(yè)績大幅提升...............

18、........................................................514.3風(fēng)機集中度提升及大型化趨勢不改.....................................................................524.3.1風(fēng)機制造商集中度顯著提升........................................................

19、.............52東興證券年度報告東興證券年度報告電力設(shè)備與新能源行業(yè)2019年度策略報告：擁抱變革連接未來DONGXINGSECURITIES表20:多晶硅產(chǎn)能分布情況（晶硅產(chǎn)能分布情況（噸年）年）..................................................................................................................

20、................................40表21:單晶硅片及硅片總產(chǎn)能分布（晶硅片及硅片總產(chǎn)能分布（GW）........................................................................42表22:電池片產(chǎn)能分布情況（池片產(chǎn)能分布情況（GW）......................................................

21、........................43表23:組件產(chǎn)能分布情況（件產(chǎn)能分布情況（GW）................................................................................44表24:2018年9月能源月能源局規(guī)發(fā)布劃將新建規(guī)發(fā)布劃將新建9個特高壓項目個特高壓項目............................................

22、..................................................................47表25:國家對于風(fēng)電的重要政策家對于風(fēng)電的重要政策...............................................................................................................................

23、.............................50表26:國家能源局和各省海上風(fēng)電規(guī)劃家能源局和各省海上風(fēng)電規(guī)劃................................................................................................................................................56表27:待開工核電項目列

24、表開工核電項目列表....................................................................................................................................................................63表28：重點跟蹤公司重點跟蹤公司.............................

25、...................................................................................................................................................68插圖目錄插圖目錄圖1:2018年電力設(shè)備行業(yè)與滬深年電力設(shè)備行業(yè)與滬深300漲跌幅跌幅............................

26、..........................................................................................................7圖2:各行業(yè)各行業(yè)2018年漲跌幅年漲跌幅（%）.................................................................................7圖3:新能源車

27、銷量及在汽車銷售總新能源車銷量及在汽車銷售總量中占比中占比........................................................................................................................................12圖4:2018年電動乘用車銷量分布年電動乘用車銷量分布..........................

28、................................................................................................................................12圖5:2018年電動乘用車行業(yè)集中度變化年電動乘用車行業(yè)集中度變化.........................................................

29、.....................................................................................12圖6:新能源車產(chǎn)量預(yù)測（萬輛）新能源車產(chǎn)量預(yù)測（萬輛）..........................................................................................................

30、................................................14圖7:電池需求裝機量預(yù)測（電池需求裝機量預(yù)測（GWh）..............................................................................14圖8:三元電池裝機量預(yù)測（三元電池裝機量預(yù)測（GWh）....................................

31、..........................................14圖9:磷酸鐵鋰電池裝機量預(yù)測（磷酸鐵鋰電池裝機量預(yù)測（GWh）..........................................................................14圖10:電池裝機量變化（池裝機量變化（kWh）..............................................

32、.....................................15圖11:電池裝機中三元、磷酸鐵鋰電池裝機中三元、磷酸鐵鋰占比（比（%）.............................................................................15圖12:動力電池價格變化（力電池價格變化（元kWh）.........................................

33、...................................15圖13:2018年動力電池裝機量市占比分布年動力電池裝機量市占比分布..........................................................................................................................................16圖14:2018年

34、動力電池行業(yè)集中度變化年動力電池行業(yè)集中度變化..............................................................................................................................................16圖15:正極材料出貨量變化（噸）極材料出貨量變化（噸）..........................

35、..............................................................................................................................17圖16:正極材料出貨量分布極材料出貨量分布.......................................................................

36、.............................................................................................17圖17:正極材料價格變化（極材料價格變化（元噸）噸）...................................................................................................

37、...................................................17圖18:正極材料出貨量行業(yè)集中度極材料出貨量行業(yè)集中度............................................................................................................................................

38、............18圖19:2018Q13正極材料出正極材料出貨量分布量分布..................................................................................................................................................18圖20:負極材料出貨量（噸）極材料出貨量（噸）.......

39、.........................................................................................................................................................19圖21:負極材料出貨量分布極材料出貨量分布............................................

40、........................................................................................................................19圖22:負極材料價格變化（極材料價格變化（元噸）噸）........................................................................

41、..............................................................................19圖23:負極材料行業(yè)集中度極材料行業(yè)集中度.......................................................................................................................

42、.............................................20圖24:2018Q13負極材料出負極材料出貨量分布量分布.................................................................................................................................................

43、.20圖25:電解液出貨量變化（噸）解液出貨量變化（噸）............................................................................................................................................................21圖26:電解液價格變化（解液價格變化（元噸）噸）..........

44、................................................................................................................................................21圖27:電解液行業(yè)集中度變化解液行業(yè)集中度變化...................................................