2019年銀行業(yè)策略報(bào)告眼見風(fēng)雨待晴空

1、目錄12019年銀行股投資邏輯......................................51.1銀行何時(shí)能夠獲得超額收益....................................................................51.22019年銀行股走勢(shì)的推演..................................................................

2、.....62銀行業(yè)績(jī)拆分：穩(wěn)字當(dāng)頭........................................................................82.1銀行股業(yè)績(jī)驅(qū)動(dòng)圖譜................................................................................82.2關(guān)于生息資產(chǎn)規(guī)模的判定......................

3、..................................................82.3關(guān)于凈息差走勢(shì)的判定..........................................................................102.4關(guān)于手續(xù)費(fèi)凈收入的判定..................................................................

4、....112.5關(guān)于投資凈收益、匯兌凈收益以及公允價(jià)值變動(dòng)凈收益的判定.......132.6關(guān)于業(yè)務(wù)及管理費(fèi)用的判定..................................................................132.7關(guān)于資產(chǎn)減值費(fèi)用的判定......................................................................142.8關(guān)于所

5、得稅費(fèi)用的判定..........................................................................152.9關(guān)于2019年銀行股業(yè)績(jī)的最終判斷.....................................................163專題：信用卡不良風(fēng)險(xiǎn)幾何.................................................

6、.................183.1信用卡：并非經(jīng)濟(jì)危機(jī)的領(lǐng)先指標(biāo)......................................................183.2以史為鑒：臺(tái)灣和美國(guó)的信用卡危機(jī)..................................................193.3中國(guó)：目前無(wú)須擔(dān)心危機(jī)，仍需關(guān)注邊際變化.................................

7、..234重點(diǎn)關(guān)注公司..........................................................................................254.1工商銀行..................................................................................................254.2建設(shè)銀行...

8、...............................................................................................254.3農(nóng)業(yè)銀行..................................................................................................254.4招商銀行.........

9、.........................................................................................264.5光大銀行..................................................................................................264.6常熟銀行...............

10、...................................................................................264.7上市公司估值比較..................................................................................275風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示...................................

11、...............................................................29圖33、逾期率并未出現(xiàn)上升...........................................24表1、銀行板塊歷史收益情況回溯.........................................................................5表2、上市銀行整

12、體資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表主要科目增速(2018930，YoY)......................9表3、上市銀行整體資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表配置情況(2018930).........................................9表4、上市銀行2019年利潤(rùn)情況預(yù)測(cè)（單位：百萬(wàn)）......................................16表5、上市銀行2019年利潤(rùn)情況預(yù)測(cè)（單位：百萬(wàn)）.............