2019年黑色金屬市場展望周期輪回，潮起潮落

1、目錄報告摘要........................................................................................................................................................1第一部分鋼材：政策拐點(diǎn)顯現(xiàn)需求周期輪回..........................................

2、....................................................6一、鋼材供應(yīng)：政策拐點(diǎn)出現(xiàn)................................................................................................................61、去產(chǎn)能效果顯著，但負(fù)面效果增多，政策拐點(diǎn)出現(xiàn).................

3、.........................................................62、限產(chǎn)目標(biāo)有所下調(diào)，具體執(zhí)行關(guān)注空氣質(zhì)量.....................................................................................83、去產(chǎn)能不去產(chǎn)量2018年粗鋼產(chǎn)量大幅增長.................................

4、...................................................104、2019年：產(chǎn)能小幅增長產(chǎn)量彈性較大...........................................................................................13二、鋼材需求：周期輪回潮起潮落.......................................

5、..............................................................161、房地產(chǎn)步入黃昏..............................................................................................................................162、庫存周期將進(jìn)入主動去庫階段....

6、.....................................................................................................203、全球經(jīng)濟(jì)下滑出口壓力加大.......................................................................................................

7、....224、制造業(yè)投資高點(diǎn)已過.......................................................................................................................235、基建獨(dú)木難支改善空間不大....................................................................

8、.......................................24三、鋼材市場展望：需求重回主導(dǎo)，波動中樞下移..............................................................................261、供給因素減退.....................................................................

9、.............................................................262、需求前景黯淡..................................................................................................................................263、展望：鋼材利潤顯著壓縮價格中樞

10、逐步下移...............................................................................26第二部分鐵礦：鋼廠利潤影響轉(zhuǎn)入寬幅震蕩............................................................................................28一、鐵礦供應(yīng)：增量進(jìn)一步下降，結(jié)構(gòu)分化繼續(xù).

11、................................................................................281、環(huán)保擾動減少，國產(chǎn)礦小幅增量.....................................................................................................282、主要海外礦山增量減少，結(jié)構(gòu)分化繼續(xù)

12、..........................................................................................293、供應(yīng)結(jié)構(gòu)帶動，高低品礦價差將收斂..............................................................................................30二、鐵礦需求：總量需求提升，

13、鋼材利潤拖累需求結(jié)構(gòu).......................................................................311、國內(nèi)外新增高爐產(chǎn)能提升總量需求..................................................................................................312、鋼材利潤拖累需求結(jié)構(gòu)........

14、............................................................................................................32三、鐵礦展望：鋼廠利潤大降影響轉(zhuǎn)入低位寬幅震蕩.........................................................................32第三部分焦炭：利潤高點(diǎn)已

15、現(xiàn)受去產(chǎn)能支撐............................................................................................33一、去產(chǎn)能倒逼產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級，供給存在階段性差異..................................................................................331、4.3米焦?fàn)t淘汰多少

16、？....................................................................................................................342、新增產(chǎn)能有多少何時投產(chǎn)釋放？.....................................................................................

17、..............353、以鋼定焦政策如何實(shí)施..........................................................................................................................354、江蘇產(chǎn)能退出的影響.........................................................

18、............................................................365、山東產(chǎn)能退出的影響.......................................................................................................................376、各省去產(chǎn)能總結(jié).................

19、............................................................................................................377、環(huán)保手段促進(jìn)產(chǎn)業(yè)整合..................................................................................................

20、..................378、去產(chǎn)能背景下焦炭整體供給偏緊..................................................................................................38二、嚴(yán)禁環(huán)?！耙坏肚小?，限產(chǎn)整體偏寬松.................................................................

21、...................................391、嚴(yán)禁環(huán)?！耙坏肚小?，限產(chǎn)政策差異化..............................................................................................392、政策邊際變化，實(shí)際限產(chǎn)整體偏寬松..................................................

22、............................................40圖目錄圖目錄圖1：2016年以來去產(chǎn)能成果顯著..................................................................................................6圖2：鋼鐵企業(yè)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率顯著下降....................................

23、...........................................................7圖3：上游原料行業(yè)占據(jù)了新增利潤的60%.............................................................................................7圖4：滯漲格局.......................................

24、........................................................................................8圖5：信用難寬............................................................................................................................

25、...8圖6：唐山限產(chǎn)影響估算.................................................................................................................9圖7：邯鄲限產(chǎn)影響估算................................................................................

26、.................................9圖8：秋冬季限產(chǎn)匯總影響結(jié)果......................................................................................................9圖9：生鐵粗鋼產(chǎn)量的歷史數(shù)據(jù)與倒推數(shù)據(jù)差異較大..............................................

27、......................10圖10：鋼協(xié)會員企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)爐廢鋼生鐵產(chǎn)量明顯提升..........................................................................12圖11：電弧爐產(chǎn)能利用率明顯提升..................................................................................

28、...............12圖12：生鐵粗鋼增幅差異較大：主要來自廢鋼比例和電弧爐增產(chǎn)..................................................12圖13：20172018年生鐵、粗鋼真實(shí)產(chǎn)量測算................................................................................13圖14：近年國內(nèi)電弧爐產(chǎn)能存量及

29、增量情況...................................................................................14圖15：20112019年中國生鐵、粗鋼產(chǎn)量.......................................................................................15圖16：20112019年全球生鐵、粗鋼

30、產(chǎn)量.......................................................................................16圖17：我國房地產(chǎn)的周期性很明顯.................................................................................................17圖18：棚戶區(qū)改造套數(shù)與貨幣

31、化安置比例......................................................................................18圖19：商品房銷售面積與棚改貢獻(xiàn)率(2019為預(yù)估).......................................................................18圖20：人口結(jié)構(gòu)與地產(chǎn)開工趨勢.............

32、.......................................................................................19圖21：19911994每年出生人口減少量...........................................................................................19圖22：土地成交面積與新開工面積.

33、................................................................................................20圖23：商品房銷售面積...............................................................................................................

34、....20圖24：我國的庫存周期和地產(chǎn)周期.................................................................................................20圖25：庫存周期不同階段下的鋼材價格表現(xiàn)...............................................................................

35、....21圖26：空調(diào)銷量和庫存同比............................................................................................................22圖27：汽車經(jīng)銷商庫存系數(shù)..............................................................................

36、..............................22圖28：金屬制品行業(yè)庫存周期........................................................................................................22圖29：通用設(shè)備行業(yè)庫存周期......................................................

37、..................................................22圖30：全球經(jīng)濟(jì)將見頂回落............................................................................................................23圖31：海外經(jīng)濟(jì)領(lǐng)先中國出口半年.............................

38、....................................................................23圖32：中韓出口增速明顯背離........................................................................................................23圖33：制造業(yè)PMI新出口訂單大幅下滑...........

39、..............................................................................23圖34：工業(yè)企業(yè)利潤增速領(lǐng)先制造業(yè)投資1年...............................................................................24圖35：出口領(lǐng)先制造業(yè)投資9個月......................

40、................................................................................24圖36：中國經(jīng)濟(jì)的810年產(chǎn)能周期明顯........................................................................................24圖37：基建投資來源主要分項(xiàng)...............

41、.........................................................................................25圖38：基建投資增速（2019為預(yù)估）............................................................................................26圖39：三季度8大基建公司訂單同

42、比回升......................................................................................26圖40：鋼材利潤將回歸至常態(tài)區(qū)間.................................................................................................27圖41：國產(chǎn)礦2018年3季