輕工制造行業(yè)年度策略報(bào)告春寒猶料峭，靜待暖風(fēng)來(lái)

1、正文目錄正文目錄一、2018年回顧：寒冬中踽踽前行................................................51.輕工制造板塊總體表現(xiàn)弱于大盤...............................................52.板塊特征：盈利下滑，個(gè)股普跌...............................................7二、投資主線：尋找確定性機(jī)會(huì)....

2、...............................................81.主線一:尋找擁有護(hù)城河，穿越景氣周期的優(yōu)質(zhì)成長(zhǎng)企業(yè)...........................82.主線二：原材料成本回落帶來(lái)盈利改善的確定性機(jī)會(huì).............................9三、造紙板塊：原材料價(jià)格中樞或小幅下移.........................................91

3、.2018年回顧：需求疲弱，盈利承壓............................................92.木漿產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈：短期漿價(jià)中樞或小幅下移，長(zhǎng)期有望高位徘徊......................102.12018年全球木漿供需緊平衡，漿價(jià)高位盤亙................................102.2短期庫(kù)存壓力致漿價(jià)下行，長(zhǎng)期保持供需緊平衡.......................

4、.....133.廢紙產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈：外廢進(jìn)口額度縮小，長(zhǎng)期價(jià)格中樞有望上行........................143.1需求疲弱，箱板瓦楞紙價(jià)格下行..........................................143.2外廢進(jìn)口收緊，中長(zhǎng)期上漲邏輯明確......................................15四、包裝印刷板塊：原材料成本下降，邊際盈利能力改善...............

5、.............161.2018年回顧：行業(yè)成本可控，盈利拐點(diǎn)在即...................................162.紙包裝行業(yè)：消費(fèi)升級(jí)，下游需求具有韌性....................................173.煙標(biāo)行業(yè)：關(guān)注布局新型煙草的投資機(jī)會(huì)......................................18五、家居板塊：受制于地產(chǎn)調(diào)控，行業(yè)靜待黎明.....

6、...............................201.2018回顧：板塊整體弱于大盤，定制家居表現(xiàn)搶眼.............................202.地產(chǎn)調(diào)控升級(jí)，家居板塊短期承壓............................................213.定制家居：板塊承壓，關(guān)注定制龍頭..........................................223.1地產(chǎn)

7、下行，密集開店，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)加劇，行業(yè)增速下滑............................223.2定制向整裝延伸，關(guān)注定制家居龍頭......................................244.軟體家居：行業(yè)整合提速，龍頭市占率持續(xù)提升................................264.1我國(guó)軟體家居需求未來(lái)三年有望突破2000億元.............................2

8、64.2精益化管理成為軟體家居行業(yè)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)焦點(diǎn)....................................284.3行業(yè)集中度持續(xù)提升，競(jìng)爭(zhēng)格局向好......................................29六、相關(guān)標(biāo)的..................................................................30圖表目錄圖表目錄圖1：輕工制造板塊走勢(shì)弱于大盤.....

9、..........................................5圖2：輕工制造板塊下跌34.16.................................................5圖3：輕工制造行業(yè)排名2328.................................................5圖4：輕工子板塊漲跌幅...................................

10、....................6圖5：輕工制造20132018Q3營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）...................................6圖6：輕工板塊20132018Q3歸母凈利潤(rùn)（億元）.................................6圖7：輕工制造板塊毛利率和費(fèi)用率.............................................7圖8：輕工制造板塊個(gè)股市值分布.

11、..............................................7圖9：造紙板塊下跌34.25.....................................................9圖10：造紙板塊市盈率為8.5倍...............................................9圖11：造紙板塊營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）.........................

12、...................10圖12：造紙板塊凈利潤(rùn)（億元）..............................................10圖13：紙漿價(jià)格走勢(shì)（美元噸）.............................................10圖14：白卡紙價(jià)格走勢(shì)（山東博匯：250G）（元噸）................................................

13、.......11圖15：銅版紙價(jià)格走勢(shì)（北京東帆：105G）（元噸）.......................................................11圖16：雙膠紙價(jià)格走勢(shì)（北京UPM：70100G）（元噸）..................................................12圖17：生活用紙市場(chǎng)規(guī)模（億元）...............................

14、.............12圖18：我國(guó)人均生活用紙消耗量（千克）......................................13圖19：國(guó)廢：黃板紙福建A級(jí)（元噸）.......................................15圖20：美廢8#（美元噸）..................................................15圖21：瓦楞紙價(jià)格（元噸）.........

15、........................................15圖22：箱板紙價(jià)格（元噸）.................................................15圖23：包裝印刷板塊下跌19.79..............................................16圖24：包裝印刷板塊市盈率24倍.................................

16、............16圖25：包裝印刷板塊營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）........................................17圖26：包裝印刷板塊凈利潤(rùn)（百萬(wàn)元）........................................17圖27：智能手機(jī)產(chǎn)量（萬(wàn)臺(tái)）................................................18圖28：化妝品零售額（億元）........

17、........................................18圖29：我國(guó)卷煙工商庫(kù)存（萬(wàn)箱）............................................18圖30：我國(guó)卷煙產(chǎn)銷量（萬(wàn)箱）..............................................19圖31：家居板塊下跌40.61......................................

18、............20圖32：家居板塊市盈率為24倍...............................................20圖33：家居板塊營(yíng)業(yè)收入（億元）............................................20圖34：家居板塊凈利潤(rùn)（億）................................................20圖35：2018年商品房銷售面積

19、（萬(wàn)平方米）...................................21圖36：2018年商品房銷售額（億元）.........................................21圖37：主要家居企業(yè)2018年漲跌幅走勢(shì).......................................22圖38：家居企業(yè)收入驅(qū)動(dòng)因素拆分......................................