宏觀研究美國降息周期大類資產(chǎn)運行規(guī)律

1、正文目錄正文目錄1.1972年以來七個降息周期年以來七個降息周期....................................................................................................................52.降息周期美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)降息周期美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn).................................................

2、.........................................................................63.美國降息周期大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)美國降息周期大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)..................................................................................................................73.1.美

3、債........................................................................................73.2.美股........................................................................................93.3.美元指數(shù)...........................

4、........................................................103.4.黃金.......................................................................................123.5.原油價格...........................................................

5、........................154.2019年下半年大類資產(chǎn)走勢展望年下半年大類資產(chǎn)走勢展望......................................................................................................155.附錄：美國經(jīng)濟衰退期前后經(jīng)濟和大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)附錄：美國經(jīng)濟衰退期前后經(jīng)濟和大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)................

6、............................................................175.1.美國經(jīng)濟衰退期前后經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)統(tǒng)計.............................................................175.2.經(jīng)濟衰退期前后美國房地產(chǎn)市場數(shù)據(jù)........................................................

7、...185.3.美國經(jīng)濟衰退期前后大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn).............................................................195.3.1.美債............................................................................................205.3.2.美股.......................

8、.....................................................................205.3.3.美元指數(shù)........................................................................................215.3.4.原油價格.......................................

9、.................................................21圖表目錄圖表目錄圖1：美聯(lián)儲開啟降息一般是為了應(yīng)對危機或者即將到來的經(jīng)濟衰退.......................................5圖2：1970年以來降息周期美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)(陰影部分為降息周期)............................................................

10、............................6圖3：1970年以來降息周期美國經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)(陰影部分為降息周期)........................................................................................6圖4：1974.61974.12美債走勢(陰影部分為衰退期，下同)......................................

11、..............................................................8圖5：1980.31980.7美債走勢..........................................................................8圖6：1980.121983.2美債走勢...........................................

12、..............................8圖7：1984.8.91987.1.2美債走勢.......................................................................8圖8：1989.5.171994.2.3美債走勢......................................................................

13、8圖9：2000.5.162004.6.29美債走勢.....................................................................8圖10：2006.6.292015.12.16美債走勢...................................................................8圖11：2018.12.182019.7.5美債走勢...

14、.................................................................8圖12：1974.61974.12美股走勢........................................................................9圖13：1980.31980.7美股走勢........................................

15、.................................9圖14：1980.121983.2美股走勢........................................................................9圖15：1984.8.91987.1.2美股走勢....................................................................

16、..9圖16：1989.5.171994.2.3美股走勢....................................................................10圖61：經(jīng)濟衰退前后2年美國10年期國債走勢(BP)................................................................................................

17、............20圖62：經(jīng)濟衰退前后2年標(biāo)普500變化(%)...........................................................................................................................20圖63：經(jīng)濟衰退前后2年標(biāo)普500變化(%).....................................

18、......................................................................................20圖64：經(jīng)濟衰退前后2年美元指數(shù)變化(%)...............................................................................................................

19、............21圖65：經(jīng)濟衰退前后2年美元指數(shù)變化(%)...........................................................................................................................21圖66：經(jīng)濟衰退前后2年原油價格變化%.........................................

20、.....................................................................................21表1：觸發(fā)降息周期的重要事件.........................................................................5表2：1972年以來美國降息周期的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn)........................

21、......................................6表3：1972年以來美國降息周期的主要大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)......................................................7表4：標(biāo)普500指數(shù)在降息周期回調(diào)最大幅度............................................................9表5：1972年以來6次美國經(jīng)濟衰退期

22、的經(jīng)濟表現(xiàn).......................................................17表6：1929年以來美國經(jīng)濟衰退期的大類資產(chǎn)表現(xiàn)......................................................19表7：標(biāo)普500指數(shù)回調(diào)幅度超過20%的時期........................................................