摩根士丹利-歐洲-股票策略-歐洲股票策略圖譜-20181123-28頁_第1頁
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1、rini@MGANSTANLEY#2Cpatedebtcostsupalot#3UShousingdataweakness#4Noassetclassesbetterthaninflationin2018#5EUvaluationsnotquitethere#6USsentimentlookslow#7Semis2ndcheapestsectvs10Yrange.#1Consensusmarginexpectationsappearex

2、tremelyoptimisticstill.OurEPSestimatesf2019are5%belowconsensusinlargepartbecauseofamecautiousviewonmargins.ConsensusstillexpectsEBITDAmarginstoexpineverysingleindustrygroupinbothofthenexttwoyears.#2Wehavealreadyseenavery

3、significantriseincpatebrowingcosts.TheincreaseinUScpatebondyieldsrelativetotheirtrailing5yearaverageisatitshighestlevelsincetheearly1980s(excludingtheGFC).AsEuropeancreditspreadshavewidenedtheperfmanceoftheleveragefactin

4、Europehasfallentoa5Ylow.#3UShousingeconomicsurpriseindexisatanalltimelow.HigherratestighterfinancialconditionshavedraggedoninterestratesensitivepartsoftheeconomythisweekthehousingcomponentoftheUSeconomicsurpriseindexhita

5、nalltimelow.#4NoassetclasseshaveoutperfmedUSinflationYTD.WhiletheConferenceBoardLeadIndicatcontinuestosuggestitistooearlytocallanendtotheeconomiccycle2018remainsayeartofgetfassetmarketsasnoneofthe17majassetclassesourCros

6、sAssetteamtrackhaveoutperfmedUSinflationthisyear.Thisisarecdbasedondatato2004.#5Europeanvaluationtimingindicatsnotquitegivingagreenlight.Onarangeof17differentmetricsEuropeanequityvaluationsareattheirlowestlevelin5Ybutare

7、still0.2starddeviationsabovelongrunaverages.AlsoourCombinedMarketTimingIndicatisatitslowestlevelinoverayearbutisstillaboveBuyterrity.#6USsentimentstartingtolookquitelow.speculativepositioningontheNasdaqisnowshtwhichhasbe

8、enarareoccurrenceoverthelast8Y.TheAAIIBullsminusBearsthisweekfelltothelowestlevelsinceFeb2016.#7EuropeanSemisarenowthesecondcheapestsectcomparedtothe10Yrange.Nasdaqisnow1.3SDoversoldvstheS&P500a4SDswingsinceJune.Software

9、TechHardwarestilllookexpensiveversushistyinEuropebutSemisisnowthesecondcheapestsectinEuroperelativetoits10Yrange.Exhibit1:Wehavealreadyseenaverysignificantriseincpatebrowingcosts604020020406080192519351945195519651975198

10、5199520052015USRecessions%changeinUSBBBYieldsvs5Yavg(bp)Source:Moody’sS&PCitigroupFixedIncomeIndicesNBERMganStanleyResearchMganStanleydoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMganStanleyResearch.Asaresultinvestsshouldb

11、eawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMganStanleyResearch.InvestsshouldconsiderMganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Fanalystcertificationotherimptantdisc

12、losuresrefertotheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendofthisrept.=AnalystsemployedbynonU.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRAmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofthemembermaynotbesubjecttoNASDNYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubje

13、ctcompanypublicappearancestradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.1November23201804:00AMGMTKeyObservation#2WehavealreadyseenaverysignificantriseincpatebrowingcostsOutsideoftheGFCUScpatebrowingcostshaveseentheirbig

14、gestrisesincetheearly80s.Evenbefeweseeanyfurtherwideningincreditspreadscpatesarealreadyfacingaveryheftyincreaseintheircostofcapital.Exhibit4showsthattheincreaseinUScpatebondyieldsrelativetotheirtrailing5yearaverageisatit

15、shighestlevelsincetheearly1980s(ifweexcludelate2008whendefaultrateswerespiking).PerfmanceofleveragefactinEuropeatitslowestlevelinover5Y.Exhibit5showstheindustryneutralperfmanceofhighlyvslowlyleveredstocksinEuropeplotteda

16、gainsthighyieldcreditspreads.Unsurprisinglythetwohavebeencloselycrelatedasspreadshavewidenedoutmateriallyinrecentmonthsleveragehasperfmedverypolyasafactfallingtothelowestlevelinoverfiveyears.Exhibit4:Wehavealreadyseenave

17、rysignificantriseincpatebrowingcosts6040200204060801925193519451955196519751985199520052015USRecessions%changeinUSBBBYieldsvs5Yavg(bp)Source:Moody’sS&PCitigroupFixedIncomeIndicesNBERMganStanleyResearchExhibit5:Perfmanceo

18、fleveragefactinEuropeatitslowestlevelinover5Y20025030035040045050055060098100102104106108110112114116118120122Nov12Nov13Nov14Nov15Nov16Nov17Nov18IndustryNeutralPerfmanceOfLeverage()PanEuropeanHighYieldCreditSpreads(RHSbp

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