中國醫(yī)療保健pd1與pd-l1行業(yè)

1、AsiaPacificEquityResearch03May2019ChinaHealthcareSectBiotech101:China’sPD1PDL1SectHealthcareLingWangAC(852)28008599ling.wang@BloombergJPMALWANGLeonChikCFA(852)28008590leon.hk.chik@DavidXYLi(852)28008546david.xy.li@Sherry

2、Yin(852)28008681sherry.yin@ChristineWang(852)28008528christine.qy.wang@AlexTsoCFA(852)28000496alex.tso@J.P.MganSecurities(AsiaPacific)LimitedSeepage105fanalystcertificationimptantdisclosuresincludingnonUSanalystdisclosur

3、es.J.P.Mgandoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchrepts.Asaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisrept.Investsshouldconsiderthisreptasonlyasinglef

4、actinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.WithinChina’sPharmaceuticalindustrywebelieveearlysignsofashiftfromvolumedriventoinnovationdrivengrowthareemerging.Weexpectthistrendtointensifydrivenbyfavableregulatypoliciesimprovedpati

5、entaccesstoinnovativedrugs.WebelieveleadingthiswaveisthemarketfbiologicsoncologytreatmenttheemergingPD1PDL1monoclonalantibody(mAB)market.Weseethisspacegrowing28%p.atoRmb79.9bn(US$11.6bn)revenuesby2030bigenoughfmultiplewi

6、nnersridingthiswave.WeexpourcoverageofthebiologicsspaceinitiatingcoverageonShanghaiJunshi(OWHK$37)CStone(OWHK$18)assumingcoverageonBeiGene(OWHK$93(H)US$155(N))Innovent(OWHK$33).Allhaveintegratedplatfmsbroadpipelinewhichw

7、ethinkarekeystosuccess.?FastgrowingChinabiologicsmarketofferssignificantopptunities.TheChinabiologicsmarketisatanearlystage.Eightofthetop10drugsintheUSAareBiologicsversustwoinChina.Withthemarket(excl.TCM)stilldominatedby

8、genericproductsweexpectstronggrowthfthebiologicsmarketdrivenbyasupptiveregulatyenvironmentimprovedreimbursementincreasingdemfnoveldrugsincludingbiologicstargetedtherapies.?StronggrowthexpectedfChina’sPD1PDL1mABmarket.The

9、globalPD1PDL1mABmarkethasgrownrapidlysincethelaunchofthefirstPD1inhibitin2014(US$10bnrevenuesin2018)whileChinasPD1PDL1mABmarkethasjustbeguntoemerge.WeprojecttheChina’sPD1PDL1markettoreachRmb79.9bn(US$11.6bn)revenueby2030

10、a28%CAGR.Longerrunweexpectdomesticplayerstodominatemarketsharegiventheirpricingadvantageover(MNCs)increasedclinicaldata.?OpptunitytobuyintoPioneersearly:BeiGeneCStoneInnoventShanghaiJunshiaretopplayersinthespace.Weviewth

11、esestocksascompellingopptunitiestoaccessthefastgrowingChinabiologicsmarket.ThePD1PDL1mABsofthesefourcompaniesareexpectedtobeamongthefirstfivetobeintroducedtothemarketamongthedomesticplayers.Weprojectthecombinedmarketshar

12、eofthetop5companies(includingHengruis(OWcoveredbyLeonChik)PD1mAB)atpeaktobeover50%amongthedomesticplayers.Thesecompaniesalsohavestrongdrugdevelopmentplatfmfsustainedgrowthfutureinnovations.?Investmentrisks.Ahighgrowthrap

13、idlyevolvingsectlikeChinabiotechnologycomeswithuncertainties.Intheintermediatetermwebelieveexecutionrisksclinicalregulatymarketingriskspricingpressurearekeyrisks.Thespaceisalsointheearlystageofcommercialization.Newsrathe

14、rthanearningsisthestockdriverdownsiderisksaredevelopmentsetbackspotentiallyexacerbatedwithoutanearningscushion.ChinaBiotechCoverageNameTickerRecPTBeiGene(HK)6160HKOWHK$93BeiGene(US)BGNEOWUS$155CStone2616HKOWHK$18Innovent

15、1801HKOWHK$33Junshi1877HKOWHK$37Source:BloombergJ.P.Mganestimates3AsiaPacificEquityResearch03May2019LingWang(852)28008599ling.wang@ExecutiveSummaryWeareexpingourcoverageoftheChinabiologicsindustry.Weareinitiatingcoverage

16、onShanghaiJunshi(1877HKOW)CStone(2616HKOW)assumingcoverageonBeiGene(6160HKBGNEUS)Innovent(1801HKOW).AspioneersintheChina’sbiopharmaceuticalindustrywebelievethesecompaniesprovidegoodexposuretothefastgrowingChinabiologicsm

17、arket.ThePD1PDL1mABsofthesefourcompaniesareexpectedtobeamongthefirstfivetobeintroducedtothemarketamongthedomesticplayersweexpectthesecompaniestogainmeaningfulmarketshareinthismarket.Thesecompaniesalsohaveastrongdrugdevel

18、opmentplatfmthatenablessustainedgrowthfutureinnovationsdrivenbybothganicgrowthexternalpartnerships.Figure1:StockrelativeperfmanceSource:Bloomberg.FastgrowingChinabiologicsmarketofferssignificantopptunitiesfdomesticmultin

19、ationalplayersWeexpectstronggrowthftheChinabiologicsmarketdrivenbyasupptiveregulatyenvironmentfinnovativeproductsimprovedpatientaccessreimbursementhugedemfnoveltherapies.WithinabroadertrendinChina’sPharmaceuticalindustry

20、towardstherapeuticdrugsfrommetraditionalmedicationswebelieveearlysignsofashiftfromvolumedriventoinnovationdrivengrowthareemerging.AsanimptantcomponentofinnovativedrugsthebiologicsmarketisstillataveryearlystageinChina.Com

21、paredtothegloballevelChinalagsinbiologicsinnovationwiththemajityofthemarketshare(excludingTCM)currentlystilldominatedbygenericproductstherebycreatingsubstantialsustainableopptunitiesfplayersdevelopinginnovativebiologics.

22、7080901001101201301401501601702616HKEquity1801HKEquity6160HKEquity1877HKEquityBTKIndexKeyglossarymAB–monoclonalantibodiesNMPA–NationalMedicalProductsAdministration(fmerCFDA)NRDLNationalReimbursementDrugListPD1–Programmed