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1、@@@Jonathan.Garner@MGANSTANLEYASIALIMITEDKelvinPangSTRATEGIST85228488204EllyChenEQUITYANALYST85239630122RobinXingECONOMIST85228486511MinDaiSTRATEGIST85222397983RidXuCFAEQUITYANALYST85228486729LauraWangEQUITYSTRATEGIST852

2、28486853JonathanFGarnerEQUITYSTRATEGIST85228487288ChinaEconomics&StrategyChinaEconomics&Strategy||AsiaPacificAsiaPacificMovingTowardsaMarketDrivenCpateCreditMarketDealingwithcitybankriskisunlikelytoleadtoasystemicissue.W

3、eexpectthecpatecreditmarkettobemedifferentiatedwhichwoulddriveupthecreditriskpremiumbutthisismitigatedbyChinaseasingmeasures.Tradetensionremainsthekeyriskfriskyassetsgoingfward.Dealingwithcitybankrisksisanecessarystepint

4、heongoingfinancialcleanupprocess:Dealingwithcityruralbankrisksshouldhelptofosteramarketientedriskmanagementprocessintheinterbankmarketwebelievethattheregulatsarewellpreparedthroughanumberofarrangementssuchastheestablishm

5、entofadepositinsuranceprogrammeemergencycreditlinestoallbanks.Financialscreditriskpremiumshouldriseduetofurthercreditdifferentiation:WebelievethatcrediteventsinsmallChinesebanksareunlikelytoleadtoasystemicissue.Theincrea

6、seinfundingcostsfsmallChinesebanksisalsomanageable.TradetensionremainsthekeyriskfAsiaChinacreditweareturningcautiousbutkeepingourEWcall.WearerecommendinginveststopreferChinaIGoverChinaHYpickupriskinChinabankcapitalspace.

7、Wehaveobservedsomemarginalcredittighteninginthepropertysect:OurchannelcheckssuggestongoingwindowguidancefdevelopersfinancingfrombondABSmarketssinceAprilindertopreventlmarketoverheating.Howeverweexpecttheimpacttobelimited

8、.Infacttheprudentcreditpolicyshouldbebeneficialfdevelopersinthelongterm.Mepolicyeasingaweakprivatesectconfidence:Webelievethatpolicymakerswouldpushfalargerstimuluswithafocusonpublicspendingtomitigateimpactsfromlingeringt

9、radetensionscreditevents.Shouldtradetensionsextendf34monthspolicymakersmayseeka50bpincreaseinthefiscalstimuluspackagemecrediteasingmeasures.WeliketobelongdurationbutshtFX:WebelievethatthePBOCwouldliketoinsulatethebroadma

10、rketfromidiosyncraticdevelopmentsinsmallerbankskeepliquidityampleagainstthebackoftradetensions.WestaybullishondurationlongSDBC10yrnote.WearelongUSDCNHaspartofourlongUSDversusAsianexptersbaskettrade(CNHKRWSGDTWD).Staycaut

11、iousonChinaequities:WestayEWwithintheEMAPxJframewkonweakenedmacrotradetensionFXuncertainty.Werecommendexposuretoinfrastructureinvestmentthroughmaterialscapitalgoodsdefensivestockpickinglookingfhighdividendyieldlowbetamin

12、imalUS$revenueexposure.KelvinPangMinDaiarefixedincomeanalystsarenotopiningonequitysecurities.RobinXingJennyZhengZhipengCaiareeconomistsarenotopiningonanysecurities.Theirviewsareclearlydelineated.Duetothenatureofthefixedi

13、ncomemarkettheissuersbondsoftheissuersrecommendeddiscussedinthisreptmaynotbecontinuouslyfollowed.Accdinglyinvestsmustregardthisreptasprovidingstaloneanalysisshouldnotexpectcontinuinganalysisadditionalreptsrelatingtosuchi

14、ssuersbondsoftheissuers.MganStanleydoesseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMganStanleyResearch.AsaresultinvestsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMganStanleyResearch.Inves

15、tsshouldconsiderMganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.FanalystcertificationotherimptantdisclosuresrefertotheDisclosureSectionlocatedattheendofthisrept.=AnalystsemployedbynonU.S.affiliatesare

16、notregisteredwithFINRAmaynotbeassociatedpersonsofthemembermaynotbesubjecttoNASDNYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompanypublicappearancestradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.1June16201909:00PMGMTChina

17、credit:ParadigmshiftincreditriskpricingKelvinPangSincethestartofthefinancialcleanupin2015theonshecreditbondmarkethasevolvedslowlyintoamemarketdrivencreditmarket.Prefinancialcleanuptheonshecreditbondmarketwasinaratherdman

18、tstagewhereinwehadnomajdefaults.Inadditiontherewasapervasiveperceptionbyinveststhatbothcpatefinancialbondsenjoyedimplicitsovereignsuppt.Thisisbecausealotofwealthmanagementproducts(WMP)werebuyersofthesebondstheseWMPwereso

19、ldtoretailaccountswithimplicitbanksuppt.Thiscreatedanenvironmentwherebankswereexpectedtomakewholebondholdersinacreditevent.Hencethecreditmarketlackedtheincentivetodifferentiatecreditrisk.Thelackofgoodcreditdifferentiatio

20、ninturnreducedtheincentivefcpatesfinancialstomaintaintheircreditquality.Thisnegativefeedbackloopmeantthatthebondmarketwasntefficientinpricingcreditrisk.Howeverinthepastfewyearswehaveseenalotofpositiveattemptsbyregulatsto

21、increasetheefficiencyoftheonshecpatecreditmarketinpricingcreditrisk.Webelievethattheregulatshavebeenverysurgicalintryingtobreaktheafementionedfeedbackloop.InthedleoflastyeartheytookthefirststepbycomingupwithnewdetailedWM

22、Prules(seeDetailedWMPrules:nochangeindirectionbutshouldhelpstabilizesentimentJuly222018).OnekeychangeintheWMPruleswastheremovaloftheimplicitguaranteebankshaveontheseWMPproducts.Webelievethatthisisacrucialstepindismantlin

23、gthenegativefeedbackloopwementionedabove.Atthesametimewestartedtoseedefaultspickupaggressivelylatelastyear(Exhibit2).ThecombinationofasteepincreaseindefaultsbanksnolongerprovidingimplicitguaranteesonWMPmeansthatcreditinv

24、estsarefinallytakingonlosses.Thishascausedthecreditmarkettostartbeingmeefficientinpricingcreditriskthedatawehavearesupptiveofthispoint.BefewehaddefaultsintheChinaonshecpatebondmarketcreditspreadswerehighlycrelatedwithChi

25、nagovernmentbonds(CGBs).ThisshouldnotbethecaseascreditspreadsshouldreflectthecreditcycleCGBsshouldfollowthemoarypolicycycle.HoweverasdefaultsstartedtopickupwebegantoseecreditspreadsdecouplefromCGBs.Thiswasespeciallytruei

26、n2018whenwesawasharpincreaseindefaults.CGBswere86bptighterin2018butAAratedcreditspreadswere61bpwider(Exhibit3).Chinasloosemoarypolicyin2018explainedthelowerCGBswhilethehigherdefaultratesmeanthighercreditriskwhichtranslat

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