23188.基于ae指數(shù)的同步軌道相對論電子通量預(yù)報模型

1、中國科學(xué)院研究生院碩士學(xué)位論文基于AE指數(shù)的同步軌道相對論電子通量預(yù)報模型姓名：鄭金磊申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：空間物理學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：鐘秋珍201205摘要ABSTRACTTherearefullofrelativisticelectronsuptoMeVinearthouterradiationbeltwhichimposegreatthreatonspacecraftsSincehundredsofcommunication，navig

2、ationandmeteorologicalsatellitesarerunningatgeosynchronousorbit，researchonrelativisticelectronsinthisregionismuchmoreimportantApracticalandefficientpredicationmodelisofgreatsignificanceforthesafetyofspacecraftsInthisthes

3、is，wehavebrieflyintroducedthemotionofelectronsinradiationbelt，andsummarizedtheobservationresultsandtheoreticalstudyonrelativisticelectronenhancementevenmSomerelativisticelectronpredictionmodelshavebeencomparedandtheiradv

4、antagesanddisadvantageshavealsobeendiscussedBasedoncaseanalyses，statisticalanalysesandthetheoryoflocalaccelerationbychorusmodewave，wepointedoutthatAEindexisagoodindicatorforbothseedelectronfluxandanisotropywhileDstindexi

5、sagoodindicatorforrelativisticelectronlossTakingAEandDstasinputparameters，apredictionmodelforrelativisticelectronsatGEOorbithasbeenestablishedbasedondynamiclinearfiltertechnologyWeexamined0111“modelbyusingittopredictrela

6、tivisticelectronsfluxfrom2000to2010Wegotthehighestpredictionefficiency(PE)for2010，0882，andthelowestPEfor2003，0663，respectivelyThePEfor2000to2010isO828Theseresultsshowthatourmodelperformssignificantlybetterthanpersistence

7、modelFurthermore，weadvancedOurmodelbytakingsolarwindspeedasanadditionalparameterAhighestPEof0899for2010andalowestPEofO680for2003areachievedOurrevisedmodelperformsmuchbetterthanothermodelsduringbothsolarmaximumandminimumy