24360.基于二階預(yù)測有效度的組合預(yù)測模型研究

1、獨(dú)創(chuàng)性聲明本人聲明所呈交的學(xué)位論文是本人在導(dǎo)師指導(dǎo)下進(jìn)行的研究工作及取得的研究成果。據(jù)我所知，除了文中特別加以標(biāo)注和致謝的地方外，論文中不包含其他人已經(jīng)發(fā)表或撰寫過的研究成果，也不包含為獲得圣徼大學(xué)或其他教育機(jī)構(gòu)的學(xué)位或證書而使用過的材料。與我一同工作的同志對本研究所做的任何貢獻(xiàn)均已在論文中作了明確的說明并表示謝意。學(xué)位論文作者簽名：云3問j簽字日期：珈f爭年年月弓。日學(xué)位論文版權(quán)使用授權(quán)書本學(xué)位論文作者完全了解圣徼犬巷有關(guān)保留、使用學(xué)

2、位論文的規(guī)定，有權(quán)保留并向國家有關(guān)部門或機(jī)構(gòu)送交論文的復(fù)印件和磁盤，允許論文被查閱和借閱。本人授權(quán)喧胬木巷可以將學(xué)位論文的全部或部分內(nèi)容編入有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)庫進(jìn)行檢索，可以采用影印、縮印或掃描等復(fù)制手段保存、匯編學(xué)位論文。(保密的學(xué)位論文在解密后適用本授權(quán)書)學(xué)位論文作者簽名：l丹、導(dǎo)師簽名：形彳友簽字日期：占嘩年名月；9日學(xué)位論文作者畢業(yè)去向：工作單位：通訊地址：簽字日期：b，留年幺月；口日電話：郵編：AbstractCombinationf

3、orecastingisthe印proachthatcombinedseVemldi虢rentforecastingmetllodsthrough廿1eappropriate、vei曲tedaVeragingmethods，sothatthee毹ctiVeinfomationwllichisproVidedbyt11eV撕ouSpredictiVemethodscaIlbeutilizedcomprehensiVelyThebasicp

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5、Atpresent，mostoflinearcombinationforecaStingisbaSedontllepredictiVecriteriathattheminimumVariarlcemeⅡ10dorliIlearregressionmemodtoestablishButinfact，suchguidelinesandassuI】叩tionscouldnot、ⅣeUrenectthee行ectiVenessofthepred

6、ictionmethodBecausethedi疵rentindicatorsserieshaVedifferentdimensions，sothemillimumVariaIlcemethodorlinearre鏟essionmetllodalsodonothavethesamedimensionIIlttlisregard，mispapersetupthecombinationforecaStingmodelbyusingⅡleme

7、anofpredictionaccuracyaIldtheVariallce、)v：hjchcaIlrenectthediscretede鏟eeThemaincontentsare搠gedaSfollows：ChapterI：7rhecurrentdoⅡlesticaIldintemationalresearchstatusofcombinationforecaStingandmecriteriausedbycombinationfor

8、ecaStingaredescribedbrienyCll叩terII：PreliminarykrlowledgeIntllispart，theconceptandtherelatedmathematicaloperationmlesofinten，alnuIllberareillustrated，meconcepta11drelatedpropeniesofinducedorderedweightedaverageoperatorar

9、eiIl扛oducedChapterIII：AcombinationforecaStmgmodelwithgeometricmeanisestablished，whichisbasedonsecondorderfIorecaSte丘IectiVemeaSure，mentherelatedpropertiesofmemodelisdiscussedSomeconceptssuChaSsuperiorconl_binationforecas

10、ting，redundaIltforecastingaIldsoonareinnoducedFinaJly，an眥1嘶calex鋤pleisgiVentoaIlalyzetheea、ectiVenessoftlleproposedcombinationforecaStmodelChapterIV：CombinedsecondorderforecaStefl’ectiVemeasurea11dinducedorderedwei曲tedav