31181.種群生存力分析及其在麋鹿種群動態(tài)中的應(yīng)用

1、蘭州大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文種群生存力分析及其在麋鹿種群動態(tài)中的應(yīng)用姓名：于清娟申請學(xué)位級別：碩士專業(yè)：數(shù)學(xué)應(yīng)用數(shù)學(xué)指導(dǎo)教師：李維德20090501蘭州大學(xué)碩I?！刍摱ˋbstractPopulationviabilityanalysisisanimportanttoolofwildlifeconservationandecologicalriskanalysisBothconservationbiologistsandpopulatione

2、cologistspayattentiontoitbecauseofitselaboratingandquantitativityThethesisintroducesthebasicideasofpopulationviabilityanalysisandanalyzestheviabilityofP6reDavid。SdeerpopulationinDafengNatureReserveandwildPereDavid’Sdeerp

3、opulationsWemainlyobtainthefollowingconclusions：1)，ByanalyzingtheviabilityofdeerpopulationsinDafengNatureReserveusingexponentialgrowthmodeldirectlyandbydividingdifferentstages，wefindthatthecurrentpopulationisdensitydepen

4、dentandwillreachcarryingcapacityin20162017，whenthenumberofthepopulationisapproximately1200IncreasingtheareasofNatureReserveisoneoftheimportantmeasuresofprotectingP6reDavid’Sdeerpopulations2)，F(xiàn)romtheresearchonpopulationvi

5、abilitywithcountbasedPVA，wefindthatthefinitepopulationgrowthrateis11757andtheprobabilityofeventuaiextinctionofthepopulationisalmostto0withtheextinctionthresholdofl03)，Bycalculatingthepopulationstructureandelasticityofvit

6、alratesondeterministicstageclassifiedprojectionmatrixmodel，wefindthattheelasticityofadultsurvivalrateisthehighestTherefore，reducingthedeathofadultwillbeverybeneficialtomaintainthecurrentgrowthtrendandrestorewildPereDavid

7、’Sdeerpopulation4)，ThestochasticexponentialgrowthmodelshowsthatstochasticfactorshaveasignificantimpactOilwildP6reDavid’SdeerpopulationdynamicsTheprobabilityofextinctionincreasegraduallyasthevarianceincreasesIthaslittleef

8、fectontheprobabilityofextinctionforcontinuingstockasmallnumberofdeerifthevarianceofgrowthrateisunchanged5)，wecalculatethewildpopulationdoublingtimeis10yearswithbirthdeathprocessmodelwhenthebirthrateisl63％andthedeathratei

9、s173％Atthesametime，thepopulationdoublingtimeon95％confidentiallevelisalsocalculatedwithdifferentfertilityandmortalityKeywords：populationviabilityanalysis；stochasticmodel；birthdeathprocess；countbasedmodel；Stage—classifiedp