物流量預(yù)測(cè)方法研究.pdf

1、武漢理工大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文物流量預(yù)測(cè)方法研究姓名：王小忠申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專業(yè)：管理科學(xué)與工程指導(dǎo)教師：云俊20050501AbstractWiththedevelopmentofmodernizationinchina，economicstructureISchangingfromtraditionalplannedeconomytomarketeconomymodernizedlogisticsalreadytransitedtopr

2、acticalhandlingmomentfromconceptmoment，SOthepredictionaboutthefreightvolumeisveryimportantforthestrategydevelopmentoflogisticsenterpriseButthelogisticsenterpriselieunderwaymoment，thestatisticofhistoricaldataisnotintegral

3、andscientific，SOitisfairlyimportantabouthowtoimprovethepredictiveprecisionaboutthefreightvolumeTherearemanypredictivemethodsnowmorethanhundredBesidesclassicalpredictivemethods，therearemanynewmethods，suchasillegibilitymat

4、hematicprediction、neuralnetworkpredictionBecausethelocalizationofthepredictivemethoditselfandtheconfineofthepredictiveperson’Sknowledge、experience，thepredictiveresultisnotsatisfiedinmanypracticalpredictionSochoosingtheap

5、propriatepredictivemethodswillassurepredictivenicetyEspeciallythescarcityofhistoricaldatawillbringtremendousdifficultforusingthepredictivemodelswhichneedlargenumbersofhistoricaldataIntheinstance，itisveryimportantthatputf

6、orwardakindofefficientpredictivemethodaboutthefreightvolumeThethesisisbasedtheexperienceofoneairport’S《thesurveyandpredictionofthemarketaboutpassengersandcargos))Firstlywriterintroducethedomesticandoverseasstatusaboutthe

7、predictivemethodsofthefreightvolume，thenilluminatethepurposeandmeaningaboutwritingthethesis，afterwardintroducetheinvestigativecontentandmethod，thenwriterdiscourseuponthepredictivecharacterandproblemaboutthefreightvolume，

8、whereafterintroducesomeclassicalpredictivemethods，finallywritercombineapracticalexampletobringforwardakindofefficientpredictivemethodaboutthefrei：ghtvolume，andsummarizethethesisKeywords：thefreightvolume，prediction，combin