行業(yè)景氣度研究系列報告之一汽車，周期律動，先知先覺

1、目錄開篇：行業(yè)景氣度研究框架................................................................................................................................51、汽車時鐘的量化構(gòu)建..................................................................

2、..................................................................61.1、關(guān)注整車子行業(yè)景氣度...........................................................................................................................................

3、...61.2、單一景氣度指標與行業(yè)指數(shù)收益相關(guān)性較弱.........................................................................................................81.3、汽車行業(yè)周期劃分：主動補庫階段最具投資價值..............................................................

4、..................................91.4、量化劃分行業(yè)周期：平滑處理提高量化劃分準確度..........................................................................................112、汽車行業(yè)景氣度影響因素梳理....................................................

5、.............................................................132.1、汽車行業(yè)景氣度影響因素分類...............................................................................................................................132.2、宏觀經(jīng)濟決定需

6、求，產(chǎn)品供給影響庫存...............................................................................................................142.3、共線性檢驗：確定預測模型的解釋變量............................................................................

7、...................................173、行業(yè)事件研究：購置稅減征政策.............................................................................................................183.1、歷史事件梳理：關(guān)注購置稅減征政策....................................

8、...............................................................................183.2、事件影響顯著性檢驗：購置稅減征政策影響顯著..............................................................................................194、動態(tài)預測模型構(gòu)建........

9、..............................................................................................................................204.1、動態(tài)模型平均法（DMA）模型原理........................................................................

10、..............................................204.2、預測效果：DMA模型預測準確度具有明顯優(yōu)勢................................................................................................214.3、疊加政策變量：DMA模型精度并無提升...........................

11、..................................................................................235、投資觀點：2019年1月大概率仍處于主動去庫階段.........................................................................246、風險提示.............................

12、.........................................................................................................................24參考文獻.............................................................................................

13、..................................................................25表目錄表目錄表1：汽車行業(yè)景氣度指標......................................................................................................................................

14、.....................8表2：各景氣度指標之間的相關(guān)系數(shù)..........................................................................................................................................9表3：汽車行業(yè)歷史周期劃分..............................

15、......................................................................................................................10表4：主觀劃分方式下，汽車行業(yè)各周期階段特征..............................................................................

16、..................................11表5：量化劃分方式下，汽車行業(yè)各周期階段特征...............................................................................................................12表6：汽車行業(yè)景氣度影響因素明細表................................

17、....................................................................................................14表7：車輛購置稅減征政策一覽........................................................................................................

18、........................................18表8：購置稅減征政策影響顯著性檢驗....................................................................................................................................19表9：DMA模型外推預測精度統(tǒng)計...........

19、...............................................................................................................................21表10：疊加政策變量后，DMA模型外推預測精度統(tǒng)計..................................................................