海外教育行業(yè)深度研究報(bào)告正本清源，政策完善中迎來(lái)行業(yè)新發(fā)展

1、EducationAnalystJianSongsongjian@.cnSFC：BMV912SAC：S0190518010002ContactJoanSongsongjingru@.cnSAC：S0190118010135StartFromBasicsNewEraUnderPlociesProgress11272018KeyPointsBetterindustrypolicyhealthierprivateeducation：Since

2、thepromulgationof“thePromotionLaw”in2003therewillfinallybeawindowperiodfpolicymodificationimprovementin2018.Afterthetoplevelpolicyadjustmentprivateeducationindustrywillfaceametransparentregulatypolicybettersupptingpolici

3、esaclearerexternalenvironmentfdevelopment.Consideringthedemographicdividendofschoolagechildrentheimprovementofenrolmentratethelimitedfinancialinputthestateundoubtedlysupptsthedevelopmentofprivateeducation.Highqualityeduc

4、ationresourcesarestillscarcewitheliminationofpolicylinguncertainty:InChinaschoolagepopulationisstillinthedemographicdividendperiod.Itisexpectedthatitwilllast13yearsinsenihighschool16yearsinuniversity.Atpresentonly54%45.7

5、%ofthegrossenrolmentrateinsenihighschooluniversityarebothatalowlevelinthewld.Therefetheinvestmentofprivateeducationfocusingonfprofithighschoolsfprofituniversitiesisstillpromisingwithbroadreturns.Astheoverallenrolmentrate

6、inthecompulsyeducationstagehasbecomesaturatedthedevelopmentspacewillbedominatedbythebrextensionofK12consistentschoolsthereginaldembroughtbythetransfmationoflargeclassesinurbanization.Infacthighqualityeducationresourcesar

7、estillscarce.Afterstrictnmstheeducationleadingenterpriseswilldevelopgreatly:SincetheimpactofpoliciespromulgatedatthebeginningofthisyearthesupplysideofeducationtrainingindustryhasbeenrapidlyclearedtheshttermMattheweffecth

8、asbeguntoappear.Accdingtopastobservationsweexpectthatthenumberofclearedinstitutionsinthisroundwillreach15%to20%ofthetotalindustry.Thisoffschooltraininggovernancecampaignisunprecedentedinscopebutitonlyfocusesonsupercurric

9、ulumteachingcompetitiontrainingfiresafety.Itdoesnotquestiontherationalityoftheexistenceofextracurriculartraininginstitutionsonthecontraryitimprovesstardsstrengthenssupervisiontomakethewholeindustrydevelopmehealthily.Ther

10、efeafterashtperiodoftreatmentpainthehighqualityteachinglevelclassroomexperienceofleadinginstitutionswillleadtofurtherintensificationoftheindustryMatthewEffect.Inadditionprivateeducationindustryhasthelargestmarketshare(1.

11、6trillionyuanaccountingf65%oftheprivateeducationmarket)thefastestgrowth(15%annualgrowth)inK12trainingindustry.Theeducationleadingenterpriseswillusherinagreatdevelopmentafterthestrictnms.Withsteadyfundamentalslowvaluation

12、investinhighqualityprivateeducationenterprises:Asapuredomesticdemdrivenlowelasticityhighbarrierindustryeducationindustrycanstillmaintainsteadygrowthunderthechangingeconomicenvironment.Withcleargrowthlogiclongtermbusiness

13、prospectseducationindustryiswthyoflongtermallocation.AtpresentthePEof2018E2019Eofprivateeducationsectis2015timesEVEBITDAis23.517.7timestheprimarysecondarymarketvaluationhasbeenupsidedown.Withthepolicylingprivateeducation

14、willcontinuetogrowinabetterregulatyenvironmentsoitistimetoinvestinhighqualityprivateeducation.Recommendation:1)Academiceducationrecommendscompanieswithlargescalehighemploymentratestrongcash.RecommendYuhuaEducationMinshen

15、gEducationChinaXinhuaEducation.2)FocusonoverpingbrhighqualitycompaniesonthepremiseofmarginalimprovementofK12policy.RecommendMapleLeafEducationWisdomEducation.3)Focusoneducationtrainingleadingenterprises.RecommendTALEduca

16、tionNewiental.Risk:1）Chinaeducationpolicyrisk；2）Enrollmentdoesn’tmeetexpectation；3）studentsparentsunsatisfiedinteachingquality；4）VIEstructurepolicyrisk；5）Acquisitiondoesn’tmeetexpectation.Overweight（Maintained）圖23、公辦大學(xué)數(shù)量

17、穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng).......................................19圖24、民辦大學(xué)數(shù)量穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng).............................................................................19圖25、家長(zhǎng)對(duì)于公辦學(xué)校與民辦學(xué)校學(xué)生的評(píng)價(jià)統(tǒng)計(jì)......................................19圖26、民辦教育平均學(xué)費(fèi)漲幅跑贏通脹

18、.............................................................19圖27、美國(guó)教育CPI漲幅高于平均通脹水平.....................................................19圖28、中國(guó)各學(xué)段錄取率呈現(xiàn)葫蘆形，普通高中錄取率低是主要矛盾..........20圖29、長(zhǎng)期看好民辦一貫制名校集團(tuán)標(biāo)的...................

19、......................................21圖30、長(zhǎng)期看好優(yōu)質(zhì)K12課后培訓(xùn)龍頭...........................................................21圖31、我國(guó)19912016年參加高考人數(shù)與錄取率..............................................22圖32、報(bào)名參加高考的類型拆分............

20、.............................................................22圖33、報(bào)名參加普通高考的學(xué)歷背景占比拆分..................................................22圖34、全國(guó)各省高等教育資源分布情況，擇選潛力地區(qū)辦學(xué)市場(chǎng)廣闊..........23圖35、長(zhǎng)期看好潛力地區(qū)高校數(shù)量、規(guī)模領(lǐng)先的民辦一體化教育集團(tuán)..........

21、24圖36、港股通持股比例變化.................................................................................26圖37、家庭年均支出方向及教育支出占比.........................................................27圖38、教育培訓(xùn)市場(chǎng)規(guī)模................................

22、.....................................................27圖39、營(yíng)業(yè)收入同比保持高速增長(zhǎng).....................................................................31圖40、營(yíng)業(yè)利潤(rùn)率承壓...................................................................

23、......................31圖41、公司現(xiàn)金等價(jià)物充足，預(yù)付賬款穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng)..............................................31圖42、公司月平均入學(xué)人數(shù)穩(wěn)步增長(zhǎng).................................................................31圖43、幼兒園階段教育供需關(guān)系圖..........................

24、...........................................32圖44、小學(xué)階段教育供需關(guān)系圖.........................................................................32圖45、初中階段教育供需關(guān)系圖......................................................................

25、...32圖46、普通高中教育供需關(guān)系圖.........................................................................32圖47、大班額規(guī)范下多數(shù)省市高中班型超額......................................................33圖48、大班額規(guī)范下部分地區(qū)初中班額仍超出標(biāo)準(zhǔn)..........................

26、................33圖49、小學(xué)學(xué)校目前資源較為寬裕.....................................................................33圖50、城鎮(zhèn)及鄉(xiāng)村地區(qū)小學(xué)平均班級(jí)人數(shù).........................................................34圖51、城鎮(zhèn)及鄉(xiāng)村地區(qū)初中平均班級(jí)人數(shù)..................

27、.......................................34圖52、城鎮(zhèn)家庭總數(shù)與人均可支配收入.............................................................34圖53、中國(guó)家庭教育支出情況.............................................................................34圖54、2

28、017年全國(guó)各省985、211院校錄取率...................................................35圖55、2016年全國(guó)各省K12階段在校學(xué)生數(shù)..................................................35圖56、歷年留學(xué)學(xué)生數(shù)量............................................................

29、.........................36圖57、出國(guó)留學(xué)學(xué)歷拆分情況.............................................................................36圖58、公司收入高速增長(zhǎng)動(dòng)力來(lái)源于新校開設(shè)及填充貢獻(xiàn)..............................40圖59、高等教育在校人數(shù)情況............................

30、.................................................42圖60、高等教育產(chǎn)業(yè)收入.....................................................................................42圖61、民辦高教滲透情況..........................................................

31、...........................42圖62、民辦高校招生情況.....................................................................................42圖63、我國(guó)高校應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生去向.........................................................................44圖6

32、4、應(yīng)屆高等教育畢業(yè)生占待業(yè)青年比例......................................................44圖65、2016高校應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生對(duì)就業(yè)形勢(shì)評(píng)價(jià).....................................................44圖66、2016高校應(yīng)屆畢業(yè)生對(duì)未能就業(yè)的原因分析.........................................44圖

33、67、已上市公司占民辦高等教育市場(chǎng)規(guī)模比例..............................................46圖68、擬上市公司占民辦高等教育市場(chǎng)規(guī)模比例..............................................46圖69、中國(guó)民辦高等教育行業(yè)總收益（2012年至2021年估計(jì)）...................46圖70、民辦高教滲透情況................

34、.....................................................................47圖71、民辦高校招生情況.....................................................................................47圖72、并購(gòu)案例學(xué)生人數(shù)學(xué)校估值對(duì)比................................