鋼鐵行業(yè)2019年投資策略當(dāng)核心邏輯從供轉(zhuǎn)向求，明年關(guān)注需求節(jié)奏

1、目錄1、2016年以來鋼鐵行業(yè)投資邏輯在于供給端擾動(dòng).......................42、明年供給依舊受限，但邊際影響或減弱..........................................................62.1、“三去一降一補(bǔ)”，供給側(cè)的故事未完待續(xù)................................................62.2、環(huán)保限產(chǎn)常態(tài)化，制約供給但邊際影

2、響減弱............................................72.3、在建工程減少，資本開支主要來自環(huán)保改造............................................93、當(dāng)核心邏輯從供轉(zhuǎn)向求，明年關(guān)注需求節(jié)奏.................................................113.1、地產(chǎn)：需求面臨不確定性，但或許沒那么悲觀........

3、..............................113.2、基建&工程機(jī)械：踩油門補(bǔ)短板，預(yù)計(jì)明年發(fā)力..................................133.3、汽車：低增速成常態(tài)，更多看需求結(jié)構(gòu)性變化......................................153.4、家電：預(yù)計(jì)建安投資低位回升，帶動(dòng)家電需求......................................1

4、64、關(guān)注另一條需求線：油氣用材或迎高景氣.....................................................174.1、油價(jià)中樞上移&天然氣需求高增，驅(qū)動(dòng)投資回暖..................................174.2、“三桶油”資本開支擴(kuò)張，油氣用材或迎高景氣......................................185、鋼企利潤(rùn)中樞預(yù)計(jì)下移，但有望維持

5、在合理區(qū)間.........................................205.1、明年利潤(rùn)中樞或下移.................................................................................205.2、成本端角度，礦基本面略有改善，但需求仍受廢鋼擠壓......................215.3、電爐鋼角度，電弧爐成本對(duì)鋼價(jià)有支撐...

6、...............................................235.4、去杠桿角度，對(duì)鋼企持續(xù)盈利形成托底..................................................245.5、對(duì)比國(guó)際鋼鐵巨頭，我國(guó)鋼鐵股很便宜..................................................256、低成本、高分紅企業(yè)有望突出重圍........

7、........................................................277、行業(yè)評(píng)級(jí)及推薦標(biāo)的........................................................................................287.1、方大特鋼：彈性、韌性雙保障，高分紅可期......................................

8、....297.2、寶鋼股份：低PB鋼鐵龍頭，多點(diǎn)開花促增長(zhǎng).......................................297.3、久立特材：受益油氣投資回暖，核電靜等風(fēng)來......................................307.4、三鋼閩光：成本管控能力出眾，擴(kuò)產(chǎn)能鞏固長(zhǎng)材優(yōu)勢(shì)..........................308、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提示........................

9、....................................................................................31圖1、月度粗鋼及鋼材表觀消費(fèi)量同比增速........................................................4圖2、房地產(chǎn)投資和新開工面積增速..........................................

10、..........................4圖3、基建投資增速................................................................................................4圖4、汽車和挖掘機(jī)產(chǎn)量增速..........................................................................

11、......4圖5、2016年以來鋼鐵板塊幾輪主要行情梳理....................................................5圖6、鋼價(jià)中樞持續(xù)上行........................................................................................6圖7、鋼鐵板塊較大盤取得了不錯(cuò)的相對(duì)收益..................

12、..................................6圖8、重點(diǎn)鋼企短期借款明顯減少........................................................................6圖9、重點(diǎn)鋼企資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率有所降低....................................................................6圖10、唐山鋼廠高爐開工

13、率和產(chǎn)能利用率..........................................................8圖11、SW普鋼板塊在建工程大幅減少................................................................9圖12、期螺價(jià)格漲幅逐漸縮小.........................................................

14、...................11圖13、鋼鐵下游需求結(jié)構(gòu)....................................................................................11圖14、2017年存量訂單較多...............................................................................12圖15、2

15、015年以來房地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)...........................................................12圖16、住宅庫(kù)存已經(jīng)降至較低水平....................................................................13圖18、電冰箱、洗衣機(jī)產(chǎn)量累計(jì)同比增速.............................16圖19、建安投資

16、增速下滑....................................................................................16圖20、石油價(jià)格中樞上移....................................................................................17圖21、我國(guó)天然氣產(chǎn)量.....................

17、...................................................................17圖22、近年來“三桶油”資本開支變化（單位：億元）.....................................18圖23、五大鋼材品種噸毛利變化........................................................................

18、20圖24、我國(guó)粗鋼產(chǎn)量（百萬噸）........................................................................22圖25、四大主要礦山企業(yè)鐵礦石產(chǎn)量（萬噸）.................................................22圖26、我國(guó)每年廢鋼主要流向...........................................

19、.................................23圖27、轉(zhuǎn)爐和電爐鋼廢鋼單耗大幅提升（kgT）.............................................23圖28、鐵礦石成本曲線........................................................................................23圖29、電爐煉鋼盈利情況測(cè)算

20、（2017年至今）................................................24表1、鋼鐵行業(yè)“三去一降一補(bǔ)”完成情況.............................................................7表2、2017、2018年采暖季限產(chǎn)對(duì)比............................................................

21、.......8表3、主要普鋼企業(yè)近年來資本支出情況（單位：億元）.................................9表4、下半年基建領(lǐng)域相關(guān)利好信息..................................................................14表5、今年下半年及明年高鐵開工項(xiàng)目不完全統(tǒng)計(jì)...........................................15表6

22、、油氣用鋼管分類..........................................................................................19表7、五大鋼材品種噸毛利..................................................................................20表8、四大主要礦山企業(yè)產(chǎn)能、產(chǎn)量及在建項(xiàng)目...

23、............................................22表9、未來鋼企資產(chǎn)負(fù)債率下降情況測(cè)算..........................................................25表10、國(guó)外鋼企ROE及PE.................................................................................2

24、5表11、國(guó)內(nèi)鋼企ROE及PE.................................................................................26表12、上市鋼企鋼材生產(chǎn)成本比較....................................................................27表13、近五年實(shí)施現(xiàn)金分紅的上市鋼企股利支付率.............