能源與公用事業(yè)行業(yè)油氣景氣依舊，環(huán)保新秀登場，新能源有選擇性關(guān)注

1、EnergyUtilitiesAnalystXiaoliYuyuxiaoli@.cnSAC:S0190518020003SFC:AXK331ContactYunjiChecheyunji@.cnOilgasboomisstillthecaseenvironmentalprotectionrookiedebutiveattentionononalternativeenergy11262018Naturalgas:Webelievethat

2、domesticnaturalgasconsumptionwillmaintainatahighgrowthrateinthenextfewyears.Thedependenceonnaturalgasimptswillcontinuetoincrease.ThegrowthrateofLNGimptsbeginstofallin2019whilestillstaysatahighlevel.Thesourcesofimptedgasw

3、illgraduallybecomerichtheimptedgaspricehasthepotentialtodecline.Domesticproductionofgaswillrebound.Investmentopptunitieslieinthefollowingtwoparts:(1)Gasdistributs:WerecommendfocusonENNEnergy(2688.HK)ChinaGas(384.HK)China

4、ResourcesGas(1193.HK)KunlunEnergy(135.HK)(2)Naturalgasstagetransptationequipmentmanufacturers:CIMCEnric(3899.HK).Oil:OilfieldserviceindustryinChinahasahighdegreeofprosperitystillinthefirsthalfoftherecoverycycle.Intermsof

5、oilpricedespiteitshugeshttermweexpectittorecoverremainatahighlevel.OilservicecompanyinChinabothbenefitsfromthereboundoftheoilpricesupptivepolicyregardingdomesticoilgasproduction.Thederscashflowofdomesticoilfieldserviceco

6、mpanieshavebeguntorecoverthevaluationisstillatalowlevel.Inthefirsthalfoftherecoverywecanfocusonoilfieldservicecompanieswithleadingtechnicalstrengthservicecapabilities.Recommendedcompanies:AntonOilfieldServices(3337.HK)、H

7、onghuaGroup(0196.HK)ChinaOilfieldServicesLimited(2338.HK).Solar:In2019domesticpolicystillhasmuchinfluenceonthedevelopmentoftheindustry.Thepaceofdiscardingmanufacturingcapacityisalsoafocus.Webelievethat2019isthelaststageo

8、fthegridparityofsolartherewillbearapidwithdrawofmanufacturingcapacity.Leadingcompanieswithlargescalelowcostwillsurvive.Wesuggestpayattentionto:(1)Leadingphotovoltaicglassmanufacturingcompanies:Thephotovoltaicglassindustr

9、yhasagoodcompetitivelscape.ItisrecommendedtofocusonXinyiSolar(968.HK)FlatGlass(6865.HK).(2)Lowcostpolysiliconmanufacturers:WerecommendfocusonGCLPoly(3800.HK).Thecompanynewlycommissioned60000tonsoflowcostpolysiliconproduc

10、tioncapacityisonitswaytodeleverageitssubsidiaries.Wind:Intheshttermtheprogressofcollectingoverduesubsidiesfwindpoweroperatsisanimptantfactindeterminingvaluationrecovery.WebelievethatHKlistedwindpoweroperatswillfacethefol

11、lowingconditionsinthenext12years:(1)Flargewindpoweroperatsthecontributionofnewlyinstalledcapacitieswillnotbegreat.(2)Thedecreaseofcurtailmentratewillonlybenefitcompanieswithhighexposuretocurtailedregions.(3)Windutilizati

12、onhoursin2018arehighduetogoodwindconditionsitshardtomaintaininthefuture.(4)Thetaxratereductionsfsomewindfarmshaveendedsomecompanysoveralltaxrateislikelytoincrease.Werecommend:SuntienGreenEnergy(956.HK)LongyuanPower(916.H

13、K)HuanengRenewables(958.HK)HuadianFuxinEnergy(816.HK).Environmentalprotection:Thehazardouswastedisposalsecthasgreatbusinesspotentialhealthybusinessmodel.(1)Thedemfhazardouswastedisposalisstronglhoweveritsprocessingcapaci

14、tyisseriouslyinsufficient.Governmenthasintroducedvariouspoliciestoincreasethedemfhazardouswastedisposaltoprovidecapacityfhazardouswastedisposal.Thisstatushasbroughtopptunitiestothehazardouswastedisposalcompanies(2)Hazard

15、ouswastedisposalcompanieshavestablehealthycashflows.Underthecurrentsituationoffinancial“deleveraging“hazardouswastedisposalcompanieswithhealthybusinessmodelcashflowsituationhaveadvantagesoverotherenvironmentalprotectionc

16、ompanies.Recommendedcompanies:ChinaEverbrightGreentech(1257.HK)ConchVenture(586.HK).Potentialrisks:1.Oilpricessharply2.Releaseofpolicywhichrestrictscitygasconnectionfees3.Solarsubsidypolicyadjustssharply4.Theoverduesubsi

17、diesfwindpoweroperatscontinuetodelay5.Thehazardouswastedisposalpoliciesundergomajchanges.Overweight（Maintained）圖1、中國天然氣當月表觀消費量及同比增速..........................6圖2、中國天然氣累計表觀消費量及同比增速..........................................

18、..........6圖3、中國LNG、管道氣當月進口量及同比增速..............................................6圖4、中國LNG、管道氣累計進口量及同比增速..............................................6圖5、全國LNG現(xiàn)貨進口平均到岸價......................................................

19、...........7圖6、LNG液廠出廠價（全國指數(shù)）..................................................................7圖7、《方案》對采暖季河北省天然氣需求的測算..........................................10圖8、《方案》對采暖季河北省天然氣供給的測算....................................

20、......10圖9、歷年中國天然氣各領(lǐng)域消費量及預測......................................................11圖10、中國天然氣產(chǎn)量、進口量、進口量占比、LNG進口增速及預測.......12圖11、中國天然氣行業(yè)投資邏輯鏈條................................................................13圖12、2018年以來布倫

21、特油價走勢與相關(guān)事件間的關(guān)系...............................14圖13、2017年至今伊朗原油出口量..................................................................15圖14、委內(nèi)瑞拉原油產(chǎn)量、鉆機數(shù)...................................................................15圖1

22、5、美國原油產(chǎn)量與美國活躍石油鉆井數(shù)走勢............................................15圖16、OPEC原油產(chǎn)量和減產(chǎn)執(zhí)行率................................................................16圖17、OPEC剩余產(chǎn)能和WTI油價關(guān)系..................................................

23、.........16圖18、IEA2018年10月月報公布的世界原油需求與供給情況.....................17圖19、全球油田服務(wù)市場規(guī)模與油價的關(guān)系...................................................18圖20、油價中樞上行到油服公司業(yè)績回升的傳導過程（中國的情況）........18圖21、國內(nèi)原油自產(chǎn)量、進口量和進口占比.....................

24、..............................19圖22、國內(nèi)天然氣自產(chǎn)量、進口量和進口占比................................................19圖23、三桶油歷年油氣產(chǎn)量（折合為百萬桶油當量）....................................19圖24、三桶油新增油氣儲量（折合為百萬桶油當量）...............................

25、.....19圖25、國內(nèi)原油產(chǎn)量及預測...............................................................................20圖26、國內(nèi)天然氣產(chǎn)量及預測...........................................................................20圖27、國內(nèi)天然氣產(chǎn)量構(gòu)成及預測............

26、.......................................................21圖28、國內(nèi)頁巖氣產(chǎn)量占天然氣總產(chǎn)量比例及預測........................................21圖29、三桶油上游勘探與生產(chǎn)業(yè)務(wù)的資本開支與合計的同比增速................21圖30、安東油田服務(wù)新增訂單與在手訂單................................

27、.......................22圖31、安東油田服務(wù)現(xiàn)金流情況.......................................................................22圖32、華油能源在手訂單...................................................................................22圖33、華油能源現(xiàn)金

28、流情況...............................................................................22圖34、宏華集團在手訂單...................................................................................23圖35、宏華集團現(xiàn)金流情況..........................

29、.....................................................23圖36、安東油田服務(wù)PBB............................................................................23圖37、華油能源PBB...............................................................

30、.....................23圖38、宏華集團PBB....................................................................................23圖39、中海油田服務(wù)PBB............................................................................23圖40、普通光伏電

31、站上網(wǎng)電價下調(diào)歷程（單位：元千瓦時）.......................25圖41、中國和全球光伏新增裝機容量及預測...................................................26圖42、歷年中國新增光伏裝機結(jié)構(gòu)...................................................................26圖43、國產(chǎn)多晶硅（一級料）主流廠商平

32、均價格............................................26圖44、國產(chǎn)單晶硅片（A片）主流廠商平均價格............................................26圖45、國產(chǎn)156單晶硅電池片主流廠商平均價格............................................27圖46、國產(chǎn)單晶硅片（A片）主流廠商平均價格............

33、................................27圖47、中國歷年上半年多晶硅產(chǎn)量...................................................................28圖48、2018年各月多晶硅國內(nèi)產(chǎn)量、進口量..................................................28圖49、2019年全球多晶硅現(xiàn)金成本和產(chǎn)能情況圖...