勢觀金融第十四期下半年的風(fēng)險與機遇

1、目錄勢觀金融第十四期..................................................................5宏觀：絕處逢生.....................................................................6策略：靜待朝暉...........................................................

2、..........7下半場展望：盈利磨底、政策對沖，先抑后揚.........................................................7貿(mào)易環(huán)境：行業(yè)彈性各異，中國制造業(yè)競爭力仍在.....................................................7優(yōu)選“方向資產(chǎn)”：盈利仍在磨底，優(yōu)選“逆周期&弱周期”............................

3、............................................................7重視國資國企改革的戰(zhàn)略意義.......................................................................7非銀：保險板塊以逸待勞，券商板塊迎接注冊制.........................................8保險行業(yè)：周期輪回，以

4、逸待勞.....................................................................8券商：迎接科創(chuàng)板，擁抱注冊制....................................................................12信托：全面消化風(fēng)險，重視報酬率回升..............................................

5、................16銀行：ROE繼續(xù)尋底，估值長期發(fā)散.................................................22全年行業(yè)整體業(yè)績增速中樞預(yù)計6%....................................................................................................................22

6、ROE仍處于尋底階段，個股有所回升...............................................................28銀行估值分化探討：盈利模式的視角................................................................30投資建議：看好盈利模式更強的銀行........................................

7、........................35圖表目錄圖1：銀行理財、信托產(chǎn)品收益率與1年期國債收益率對比（單位：%）..................................................................8圖2：余額寶、理財通收益率與1年期國債收益率對比（單位：%）.............................................................

8、............8圖3：上市險企典型萬能產(chǎn)品結(jié)算利率（單位：%）...................................................................................................8圖4：上市險企固收資產(chǎn)總投資收益率（單位：%）.............................................................

9、......................................9圖5：上市險企凈投資收益率（單位：%）.................................................................................................................9圖6：上市險企及大地財險、國壽財險的市占率情況（單位：）....................

10、.........................................................11圖7：2019年至今金融子行業(yè)和滬深300漲跌幅（單位：%）................................................................................13圖8：新發(fā)行信托期限趨短.....................................

11、...................................................................................................17圖9：新增信托中基建和地產(chǎn)占比提升較大（單位：億元）.....................................................................................17圖10：預(yù)計

12、到期規(guī)模后續(xù)仍存壓力...........................................................................................................................17圖11：信托報酬率和主動管理占比高度相關(guān).................................................................

13、............................................19圖12：安信信托報酬率及主動管理占比....................................................................................................................19圖13：陜國投信托報酬率及主動管理占比...................

14、.............................................................................................19圖14：中融信托報酬率及主動管理占比...........................................................................................................

15、.........19圖15：愛建信托報酬率及主動管理占比....................................................................................................................19圖16：五礦信托報酬率及主動管理占比.......................................................

16、.............................................................20表19：當(dāng)前A股銀行整體PB估值隱含的長期ROE為8%......................................................................................30表20：A股上市銀行十年來估值大幅下挫，平均跌幅超過70%.............

17、...................................................................31表21：上市銀行RWA也出現(xiàn)了大幅下滑............................................................................................................32表22：銀行主要業(yè)務(wù)模式利弊分析......