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1、數(shù)學建模第1頁AnalysisofincrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivitiesAbstractTosolvetheproblemofcrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivitiesinChina.Firstwewillsolveourproblem.Howtoreducecrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleact
2、ivitiesinChinaWethroughmethodoffuzzysyntheticevaluationofcrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivitiesinChinatosolvewhyaccidentincrowdedstampede.Establishmentcomprehensiveevaluationofcrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleac
3、tivitiesbasedonFuzzyComprehensiveEvaluationModel.Fuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethodisgivenwhenpublicplacesaretoomanypeopleinastampedeofprobabilitythefmingconditionsthattheanalysis.Besideswewillmodel2buildingstosettlement
4、it.Ontheonehwechoosethenmaldistributionmanycrowdedstampedeaccident’spopulationisfollownmaldistributionsowedecidetochooseit.Thenpeoplefollowunifmdistributionsuchasschoolsupermarkethospitalbus.It’salwaysbeinginourlife.mode
5、l2solvepeopleincrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivitiesdistribution.Lastmodelabuildingaboutgeicalgithm.Westudyaboutmanycrowdedstampedeaccident’spopulationisfollownmaldistributionwhywedon’tchoosecrowdedstampedeaccide
6、nt’spopulationisfollowunifmdistributionBecausecrowdedstampedeaccident’spopulationisfollowunifmdistributionhardlyhaveCasualtieswedon’tchooseit.Wethroughgeicalgithmfindarelationthatpopulationdensitydeclinesowemakeaequalden
7、sitycontouraboutpopulationdensity.What’smewethroughequaldensitycontourcalculation.Findingmaximumcoverageaboutchannels.Solvinghowtomakepeopleleaveplacesoonest.model4couldestimationofpopulationdistributionthenkeydepartment
8、candecidetokeymeasuresthatToimpedethefcemovementofcrowdedstampedeaccidentoflargescaleactivities.數(shù)學建模第3頁thebetter.HoweverIfpopulationistoolargechoosingabestactionplanisveryimptant.What’smeitwillaffectthequalityofvisitwild
9、lifeexperience.Inconditionthecapacityofthesquareislimitedsoourjobistofindagoodsolutiontosolvetheseentireproblems.3Solvingtheproblemstepbystep3.1Overviewthesolutionofbasicmodel?step1:Inourpaperwefirstconsidertheproblem:An
10、alysisoftheCauseofStampedeAccidentinCrowdGatheredPlacereasons??step2:AfurtherstepwefocusonThereareseveralalternativestoinjuredvictims?step3:nextstepwefocusonGeicAlgithmModelofOptimalEvacuationRoutesDepartureTimeChoiceina
11、DynamicSystem?step4:Thefinalstepwetesttherobustnessofourbasicmodel.4BasicModelstep1:Inourpaperwefirstconsidertheproblem:AnalysisoftheCauseofStampedeAccidentinCrowdGatheredPlacereasons4.1Fuzzycomprehensiveevaluationmethod
12、Wechoose12indicatssuchaspopulationfactindex（）environmentalqualityobjective1U（）physicalindex（）infmationfacts（）transptationfact.（2U3U4U5U）Wemakeafuzzycomparisonmatrixofallindex.iiiBAR??populationfactindex10.780.180.04000.7
13、20.20.26000.340.510.10.030.020.30.550.130.020R?????????????=(0.4，0.25，0.15，0.2)1A111(0.60300.30850.12200.00850.0030)BAR???environmentalqualityobjective20.120.20.280.220.180.690.220.09000.020.020.230.270.42R???????????=(0
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