中國的匯率政策和亞洲貿易外文翻譯

1、<p><b>　　中文3577字</b></p><p>　　本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</p><p>　　外文題目：CHINA’S EXCHANGE RATE POLICY AND ASIAN TRADE </p><p>　　出 處：

2、New Finance,2009(9) </p><p>　　作 者：Alicia Garcia-Herrero, Tuuli Koivu </p><p><b>　　原 文 :&l

3、t;/b></p><p><b>　　Abstract</b></p><p>　　This paper shows empirically that China’s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi. H

4、owever, the current size of the trade surplus is such that exchange rate policy alone will probably not be able to address the imbalance. The potential reduction in the trade surplus resulting from an increase in the ren

5、minbi exchange rate is limited mainly because Chinese imports do not react as expected to a renminbi appreciation – they tend to fall rather </p><p>　　Keywords: China, trade, exports, real exchange rate</

6、p><p>　　I. Introduction</p><p>　　China’s share in world trade has increased extremely rapidly during the past years. In fact, it is already one of the largest exporters in the world, together with

7、Germany and the United States.</p><p>　　Until recently, China’s trade balance was very close to zero. According to China's customs statistics, its trade surplus amounted to mere USD 32 billion (or 1.7% o

8、f GDP) in 2004 (Graph 1). However, since 2005 the trade surplus has ballooned: it reached nearly USD 180 billion in 2006 (close to 7% of GDP) and increased further in 2007, to more than 10% of GDP.</p><p>　　

9、On the one hand, Chinese policymakers appear to be maintaining an artificially low exchange rate for the renminbi so as to profit from external demand and achieve a much needed high growth rate. On the other hand, given

10、that prices may still play only a limited role in supply and demand decisions in China’s transitional economy, doubts have been raised that the exchange rate can be an effective tool in reducing the trade surplus.</p&

11、gt;<p>　　Linked to the first argument is the fact that China is facing strong pressure from industrial countries to appreciate the renminbi. The real effective exchange rate (REER) of the renminbi rose steeply fro

12、m 1994 until end-1997 but tended to decline after that until the move to a more flexible exchange rate regime was announced in July 2005. Thereafter the renminbi has appreciated somewhat in real terms. The question is wh

13、ether – and to what extent – the sharp increase in the trade surplus can be </p><p>　　The large size of China’s trade surplus makes the issue important not only for China but also for the rest of the world.

14、The existing literature is not conclusive. The lack of appropriate data and sufficiently long time series has discouraged research on the link between the renminbi exchange rate and China’s trade. Since the summer of 200

15、3, when discussions on the undervaluation of the renminbi came to the forefront, research on China’s exchange rate policy has blossomed, but much of it has foc</p><p>　　Our paper analyzes this question empir

16、ically using cointegration analysis. According to our results, a real appreciation of the renminbi would reduce China’s trade surplus in the long run, but the effect would be limited. The relatively small impact – compar

17、ed with the size of the imbalance – is mainly explained by the peculiar price elasticity we find for imports: namely, Chinese imports are negatively affected by the renminbi’s real appreciation. By estimating bilateral i

18、mport equations, we fi</p><p>　　The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 reviews the existing literature. Section 3 describes the methodology and the data used. Section 4 presents the results

19、 on how China’s exports and imports react to changes in the exchange rate and demand. In Section 5, we dig deeper into the issue of why Chinese imports do not get a boost from the renminbi’s appreciation; to do so, we es

20、timate bilateral trade equations with China’s main trade partners and then analyse the export equations o</p><p>　　IV. Results for China’s import and export equations</p><p>　　As a preliminary s

21、tep, we test for the order of integration of the variables included in our analysis. We use the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) tests for the existence of a unit root. Nearly all variables are found to be non-stationary in

22、 levels but stationary in first differences. We then test for the existence of cointegration vectors using the Johansen procedure. We find at least one cointegrating vector for each variable group. As proposed by Phillip

23、s and Loretan (1991),the presence of the c</p><p>　　Besides regressions on export and import equations for our full sample (1994–2005), we also ran such regressions for a shorter period (2000–05) that concen

24、trates on the period of WTO influence. In both cases, we consider it important to distinguish between processed and ordinary trade and, therefore, run separate equations for each of them in the case of both exports and i

25、mports. The maximum number of short-term lags introduced in the equations was three, and we ultimately included only those th</p><p>　　The full results for the export equations can be found in Table A2 in th

26、e Appendix.16 As expected, long-run exchange rate elasticities of China’s exports – both processed and ordinary are negative and significant in our full sample and also after WTO entry. When appropriately transformed (se

27、e Table 2), the estimated long-run impact of the real exchange rate is around –1.3 for processed exports for both periods. For ordinary exports, it drops from –2.3 measured for the whole period to –1.6 for th</p>

28、<p>　　For both ordinary and processed exports, the long-run positive effect of world demand on Chinese exports is very small and not statistically significant in our full sample, but it does become significant after

29、 WTO membership. That result is in line with the idea that China was facing considerable barriers to profiting from other countries’ growth before its WTO entry. In addition, for the most recent sample, the income elasti

30、city of Chinese exports is very close to 1, as expected.</p><p>　　The estimated coefficients of the import equations are shown in Table A3 in the Appendix. Demand factors seem to play a relatively moderate r

31、ole in explaining past imports. In the later subsample, imports for processing do react positively to external demand, measured by processed exports, and domestic industrial output increases ordinary imports, as expected

32、.</p><p>　　As one would expect, the FDI stock appears to have a positive effect in the long run both on ordinary imports and on imports for processing. Finally, a reduction in import tariffs seems to foster

33、imports for processing in the long run.19 As for exports, dummies for the Chinese New Year as well as for December were significant in most cases.</p><p>　　Finally, the exchange rate elasticity of imports is

34、 always negative and generally significant. The only exception is imports for processing in the latter subperiod, for which the negative coefficient on the exchange rate is significant only at the 15% level. The exchange

35、 rate has not only a direct link to imports for processing but also an indirect link via processed exports. In other words, a renminbi real appreciation tends to reduce imports rather than to increase them. Although coun

36、terintuit</p><p>　　VI. Conclusions</p><p>　　During the past few years, there has been growing discussion both in China and in international forums on the desirability of a renminbi appreciation.

37、 Many have argued that exchange rate policy would not serve the purpose of reducing China’s large trade surplus. This paper shows empirically that China’s trade balance is sensitive to fluctuations in the real effective

38、exchange rate. In fact, estimating long-run elasticities of Chinese exports and imports to changes in the renminbi’s real effectiv</p><p>　　On the basis of our estimated elasticities for the period beginning

39、 at the point (2000) that WTO entry for China was known, a 5% real appreciation of the effective exchange value of the renminbi – other things given – would have led to about a 7% reduction in export volume. When we take

40、 into account the direct link from the exchange rate to imports as well as the indirect link (from a decrease in processed exports to imports for processing), the total volume of imports would have decreased by ab</p&

41、gt;<p>　　Although it is not completely new, our finding that China’s imports decrease as a result of an appreciation of its currency prompted a deeper investigation. We explored the issue further by estimating bil

42、ateral equations for China's trade with its major trade partners. It seems that the renminbi bilateral real appreciation against the currency of a trade partner generally reduces China’s imports, particularly from ot

43、her Asian countries. The result for Chinese imports from Asia is probably explai</p><p>　　These findings raise concerns in terms of Asia’s reaction to a sudden appreciation of the renminbi, particularly if o

44、ther Asian currencies also appreciate. Although this study concentrates on only the volumes of imports and exports – so the conclusions cannot be comprehensive – it does underscore the importance of investigating further

45、 potential effects from a renminbi real appreciation and different combinations of exchange rate policies in Asia. A number of papers on this issue have already be</p><p>　　Finally, although Chinese exports

46、have clearly benefited from fast economic growth in advanced economies, we found the income elasticity of Chinese imports to be rather low. It seems that exports to China are more dependent on foreign direct investment t

47、han economic activity in China. However, this characteristic can change in the near future if the composition of Chinese imports starts shifting from raw materials, parts and components and investment goods towards goods

48、 for domestic consumption.</p><p><b>　　譯 文：</b></p><p>　　中國的匯率政策和亞洲貿易</p><p><b>　　摘要</b></p><p>　　本文的實證顯示了中國的貿易平衡對人民幣實際有效匯率波動的風險是敏感的。然而，匯率政策本身

49、可能無法改變當前貿易順差的大小。在貿易中，人民幣匯率上升而減少盈余的潛力是有限的，主要是因為中國的進口沒有作出預計的反應，其事實是人民幣升值導致進口趨于下降而不是增加。通過中國和其主要貿易伙伴的雙邊貿易進口方程組的估算，我們發(fā)現了中國與東南亞國家的貿易中進口的通常反應。這一結果可能是由于亞洲的垂直整合，且東南亞從中國進口的產品的大量份額是再出口。我們還發(fā)現，一些亞洲國家的出口總額對人民幣升值的反應消極，它指出了亞洲國家對中國出口的依賴。

50、</p><p>　　關鍵詞: 中國、貿易、出口、實際匯率</p><p><b>　　一、介紹</b></p><p>　　在過去幾年，中國在世界貿易中的份額增長非常迅速。且事實上，除德國和美國外，它已經是世界上最大的出口國之一。</p><p>　　而近年來，中國的貿易平衡都非常接近于零。據中國海關統(tǒng)計，2004年其

51、貿易盈余總額僅為320億美元（或1.7％的GDP）（圖1）。然而，自2005年以來貿易順差激增：它在2006年達到近1800億美元（接近GDP的7％）,2007年進一步上升到超過GDP的10％。</p><p>　　一方面，中國的決策者似乎堅持人為的壓低人民幣匯率，有利于增加外部需求，從而實現必要的高增長率。另一方面，因為價格在中國過渡經濟的供給和需求決定中發(fā)揮的作用是有限的，使得有人質疑人民幣匯率是減少貿易順差

52、的有效工具這個觀點。</p><p>　　聯系到第一個參數可知道中國正面臨著工業(yè)化國家的強烈要求人民幣升值的壓力是一個事實。從1994年至1997年底，人民幣實際有效匯率急劇上升，而后呈下降趨勢直到2005年7月公布了一個更靈活的匯率制度。此后，人民幣略有升值的實況。問題在于如何以及在何種程度可以通過這樣的實際貶值解釋貿易盈余的大幅增加。</p><p>　　中國的貿易盈余之大，不僅引起了

53、中國甚至是世界其他地區(qū)的問題,且現有的文獻也沒有定論。適當的數據和足夠長的時間序列的缺乏阻礙了人民幣匯率和中國的貿易之間的聯系的研究。自2003年夏天開始對人民幣低估的討論到了最前沿，中國的匯率政策的研究已經展開，但大多研究集中在中國匯率長期均衡的估計或什么樣的匯率制度最符合中國的經濟。這兩個問題顯然是相關的，但對于全球失衡的規(guī)模而言最緊迫的問題是中國是否應該將貨幣升值作為減少其龐大的貿易盈余的工具。</p><p&

54、gt;　　我們通過協(xié)整向量實證分析這個問題。而根據我們的結果，人民幣實際升值會減少中國長期的貿易順差，但其影響將是有限的。特殊的價格彈性則主要解釋了對比于不平衡的規(guī)模而言,其對進口有較小的影響,即：人民幣實際升值對中國進口的影響是負的。通過雙邊進口方程的估算，我們發(fā)現，從亞洲國家進口的數量趨于下降，但其他國家的進口量則不變。這結果很可能被解釋為縱向一體化在亞洲區(qū)域內貿易的特點：從中國進口的大多商品將從其他東南亞國家再出口,這顯然有悖常理

55、。此外，我們顯示的證據表明，東南亞國家似乎沒有能夠通過增加出口到其他國家來減少中國的出口，因為人民幣升值對于他們的總出口的影響是負面的。換句話說，來自東南亞國家的出口似乎是一個補充，而不是中國出口的替代品。</p><p>　　本文的其余部分組織如下。第2節(jié)回顧現有的文獻。第3節(jié)描述的方法和使用的數據。第4節(jié)中國出口和進口如何應對匯率和需求變化及結果。在第5節(jié)，進一步深入為什么中國的進口沒有從人民幣升值得到增加的

56、問題;我們運用中國與主要貿易伙伴的雙邊貿易方程的估計，然后分析部分亞洲國家的出口方程。第6節(jié)總結。</p><p>　　四、中國進口和出口方程的結論</p><p>　　作為第一步，我們?yōu)橐惑w化的變量順序進行測試以及分析。我們對其單位根的存在進行增廣Dickey-Fuller（ADF）檢驗。幾乎所有的變量的水平都被發(fā)現是非平穩(wěn)，但在一階差分是平穩(wěn)的。然后，我們使用約翰森程序測試協(xié)整向量的存

57、在。我們發(fā)現每組變量至少有一個協(xié)整向量。正如菲利普斯和Loretan（1991），協(xié)整向量的存在使我們通過一個非線性最小二乘法,提出了回歸滯后的估計。這種方法將對長期和短期的參數產生無偏和一致的估計。</p><p>　　除了全樣本（1994-2005）的出口和進口回歸方程，我們也調查了一段較短期間（2000-2005年）的回歸，主要集中于世界貿易組織的影響。在這兩種情況下，我們認為，重要的是區(qū)分一般貿易和加工貿

58、易，因此，就兩者在出口和進口的情況各列單獨的方程。在短期最大數量的滯后方程中引入三個，而最終也只包括那些顯著性的。</p><p>　　出口方程的全部結果顯示在表中的附錄A2。正如人們所預料的那樣,在我們的全部或加入WTO后的樣本中,長期匯率彈性不管是對中國的加工出口還是一般貿易都有著消極且重要的影響。當適當的轉換（見表2）時，實際匯率對兩個期間的加工出口的長期影響估計將圍繞-1.3波動。而對于一般出口，則被測量

59、出從整個期間的-2.3至最近時期的-1.6。我們的研究結果非常接近其他學者通過協(xié)整分析的結論（如,出口總額的-1.5 ,Lau (2004)以及-1.3 ,Shu and Yip（2006））。他們也類似對主要的工業(yè)化國家的出口價格彈性進行估計（美國和英國分別是-1.5和-1.6, Hooper(1998)）。</p><p>　　對于這兩種一般貿易和加工出口，世界需求對中國出口的長期積極影響是非常小的，甚至在我

60、們的全樣本統(tǒng)計上沒有意義，但它確實在中國成為世貿組織成員后有顯著影響。結果符合在入WTO之前中國想從其他國家的增長中獲利面臨著相當大的障礙這一想法。此外，在最近的樣本中，中國出口收入彈性都非常接近1，符合市場預期。</p><p>　　其進口方程的系數估計見表中附錄A3。需求因素似乎對過去的進口有著相對穩(wěn)定的作用。在后來的子樣本中，加工的進口對外部需求作出積極反應，以加工出口來衡量國內工業(yè)產出，一般進口增加，符合

61、市場預期。</p><p>　　正如人們所預期的那樣，外國直接投資存量似乎對加工進口以及一般進口在長遠上都產生積極影響。最后，削減進口關稅，似乎有利于促進長期的加工進口。而對于出口方面，仿制品在農歷新年以及十二月的大多數情況下是很重要的。</p><p>　　最后，匯率彈性對進口總是具普遍的消極效果。唯一的例外是在加工進口的后期，匯率負系數對其的影響在15％的水平。匯率不僅與加工進口有直接

62、聯系，而且與加工出口有間接聯系。換句話說，人民幣實際升值更趨向于減少進口，而不是增加。雖然乍看起來違反直覺，但這種消極彈性已經在近期的一些文獻中體現，如Marquez and Schindler (2006)。這一發(fā)現意味著進口甚至一般的進口對由人民幣實際升值而不是購買力上升所引起的出口下降更敏感。</p><p><b>　　六、結論</b></p><p>　　在

63、過去的幾年里，中國和國際論壇中對人民幣升值的可取性的討論都出現了增長。許多人認為，匯率政策將無助于減少中國的巨額貿易順差。本文的實證顯示中國的貿易平衡對實際有效匯率波動是敏感的。事實上，1994年至2005年年底,就人民幣實際有效匯率的變動對中國的出口和進口的長期彈性的估計，我們發(fā)現了一個有力的證據，實際升值會大幅降低長期出口。該結果對加工出口（即貨物轉化和轉口貿易）和一般出口都有效。然而，真正的貨幣升值也降低了中國的進口，這限制了匯率

64、政策對貿易盈余的凈影響。</p><p>　　我們對該期間彈性的估計的基礎開始于2000年即中國進入世界貿易組織時，5％的人民幣實際有效匯率升值(其他特定的情況除外)將導致約7％的出口量減少。當我們考慮到匯率對進口的直接聯系，以及間接聯系時（從一個加工出口減少成為加工進口），發(fā)現進口總額減少約4％。在這些估計的基礎上，2005年的貿易盈余將縮水四分之一左右，從1000億降到不足800億美元。不過，這些數字必須極其

65、謹慎地對待，因為它們只代表粗略計算，不考慮，例如，出口和進口價格引起的匯率變動對貿易盈余的影響。我們的數字可能高估了貿易盈余的減少，因為在升值的情況下，出口價格以外幣計價將可能增加，這樣對出口值的實際影響會更小。另一方面，人民幣匯率的波動可能不會影響所有的進口價格，如世界石油的市場價格，對中國進口價格的影響可能會小得多。且不幸的是，對中國的影響是很難估計，因為關于出口和進口價格的時間序列數據的不足。</p><p&g

66、t;　　雖然不是全新的，但通過更深入的調查我們發(fā)現其貨幣升值的結果引發(fā)了中國的進口減少。我們通過估算中國與主要貿易伙伴的雙邊貿易方程進一步探討了這個問題?？磥恚嗣駧艑Q易伙伴貨幣的實際升值會普遍降低中國的進口，特別是來自于其他亞洲國家。對該來自于亞洲的中國進口的結果可能的解釋是亞洲國家的出口部門縱向一體化程度很高。這些其他亞洲國家生產的產品只是一種補充，他們不能取代中國的出口。而我們的實證支持這個假設，人民幣實際升值對亞洲國家的出口而

67、不只對中國出口的影響是負的。</p><p>　　這些發(fā)現引起了人們對人民幣突然升值時亞洲反應的關注，特別是如果其他亞洲貨幣也升值時。雖然這項研究集中于進口和出口的價值(這樣的結論不夠全面)但它進一步強調了人民幣實際升值和亞洲匯率政策的不同組合的潛在影響的重要性。美國對該問題的論文數量已經公布，但研究使用新數據是必要的。</p><p>　　最后，我們也發(fā)現盡管在發(fā)達經濟體中隨著經濟的快速

68、增長中國出口明顯受益，但中國進口的收入彈性卻相當低。由此看來，中國出口較經濟活動更多的是依賴于外國直接投資。但是，在不久的將來,如果中國的進口成分從原料，零部件和投資品轉向國內消費的商品,則這種特性可以改變。</p><p><b>　　導師評語：</b></p><p>　　該同學能按時完成外文翻譯工作。翻譯內容與畢業(yè)論文選題較為一致。翻譯質量達到要求，語言較為準確