檢驗(yàn)貿(mào)易平衡和匯率之間的關(guān)系以中國(guó)與美國(guó)為例子【外文翻譯】

1、原文：Examiningtherelationshipbetweentradebalanceexchangerate:thecaseofChina’stradewiththeUSAInthispaperweinvestigatethenexusbetweenChina’stradebalancetherealexchangeratevisa`vistheUSA.Usingtheboundstestingapproachtocointeg

2、rationwefindevidencethatChina’stradebalancerealexchangeratevisavistheUSAarecointegratedusingtheautegressivedistributedlagmodelwefindthatinboththeshtrunthelongrunarealdevaluationoftheChineseRMBimprovesthetradebalanceasare

3、sultthereisnoevidenceofaJcurvetypeadjustment.1、IntroductionThereisnowalargeliteraturethatexaminesthenexusbetweentradebalancerealexchangerateondevelopingcountries(seeinteraliaNarayanNarayan2004WilsonTat2001LalLowinger2002

4、Kale2001Singh2002).RecentempiricalliteraturefdevelopingcountriesfindsaJcurvetypeadjustmentofthetradebalanceduetoshocksintherealexchangerate.FinstanceWilsonPat(2001)donotfindanyevidenceoftheJcurvefSingape.LalLowinger(2002

5、)findevidenceoftheJcurvefagroupofEastAsiancountriesKale(2001)findsevidenceoftheJcurvefTurkeyNarayanNarayan(2004)findevidenceoftheJcurvetypeadjustmentofthetradebalancefFiji.1.WeinvestigatetherelationshipbetweenChina’strad

6、ebalanceitsexchangeratevisavistheUSAdollar.Ourapproachisasfollows:(1)toinvestigateevidencefcontegrationweusetheboundstestingapproach(2)toestimatethelongrunshtrunelasticityweusetheautegressivedistributedlagmodelsuggestedb

7、yPesaranShin(1999)(3)toestimatetheimpactofshockstoexchangerateonthetradebalanceweapplytheimpulse–responsefunctions.Thepaperproceedsasfollows.Thenextsectionpresentsthetradebalancemodeltobeestimated.Thisisfollowedbyabriefd

8、eionofthemethodologyusedinthisstudy.Thepenultimatesectioncontainstheempiricalfindings.Inthelastsectiontheresultsarediscussed.ModelMethodologyModelOurmodelisasfollows:Recentstudies(LalLowinger2002Narayan2004)ontheJcurvere

9、commendthatthebestwayofderivingevidenceoftheJcurveisbyusingtheimpulse–responsefunctions.WefindplottheresponseoftradebalancetoonestarddeviationshocktorealexchangerateinFig.1theresponseofexchangeratestoonestarddeviationsho

10、cktothetradebalanceinFig.2.Theimpulse–responsefunctionrevealsthataonestarddeviationshocktotherealexchangerate(devaluationoftheRMB)leadstoaveryvolatileresponseoftradebalancefthefirstthreeyears.Afterthreeyearshowevertheimp

11、actofshockstorealexchangerateonthetradebalancediesout.MeoverthereisnoevidenceofanyJcurvetypeadjustmentofthetradebalance.ConclusionThispaperexaminesthenexusbetweenChina’stradebalancewiththeUSAtherealexchangerate.Thetestfa

12、longrunrelationshipbetweentradebalancerealexchangerateisbasedontheboundstestingapproach.whiletheshtrunlongelasticitiesareestimatedusingtheARDLestimat.Wegaugetheresponseoftradebalancetoonestarddeviationshocktotherealexcha

13、ngerateusingtheimpulse–responsefunction.Ourfindingsareasfollows:(1)wefindthatChina’stradebalancerealexchangeratevisa`vistheUSAiscointegrated(2)thelongrunshtrunelasticitiesontherealexchangeratearepositivestatisticallysign

14、ificantimplyingthatadevaluationoftherealexchangerateimprovesChina’stradebalance(3)theimpulse–responseanalysissuggeststhataonestarddeviationshocktorealexchangeratecreatesalotofinstabilityinChina’stradebalancefthefirstthre

15、eyearsbuttheimpactofthisshockdiesoutthereafter.AnimptantdistinctionbetweenthepresentstudytheliteratureondevelopingcountriesisthatwhilemoststudiesondevelopingcountriesfindaJcurvetypeadjustmentofthetradebalancetoshocksinre