中國的匯率政策和亞洲貿(mào)易【外文翻譯】_第1頁
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1、1本科畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯外文題目：CHINA’SEXCHANGERATEPOLICYASIANTRADE出處：NewFinance2009(9)作者：AliciaGarciaHerreroTuuliKoivu原文:AbstractThispapershowsempiricallythatChina’stradebalanceissensitivetofluctuationsintherealeffectiveexchangerateoft

2、herenminbi.Howeverthecurrentsizeofthetradesurplusissuchthatexchangeratepolicyalonewillprobablynotbeabletoaddresstheimbalance.Thepotentialreductioninthetradesurplusresultingfromanincreaseintherenminbiexchangerateislimited

3、mainlybecauseChineseimptsdonotreactasexpectedtoarenminbiappreciation–theytendtofallratherthanincrease.ByestimatingbilateralimptequationsfChinaitsmajtradepartnerswefindthatthereactionfimptsisgenerallyconfirmedfChina’strad

4、ewithSoutheastAsiancountries.ThatresultmightbeattributabletoAsia’sverticalintegrationasalargeshareofChineseimptsfromSoutheastAsiaarereexpted.WealsofindthattotalexptsfromanumberofAsiancountriesreactnegativelytoarenminbiap

5、preciationwhichpointstoadependenceofAsiancountries’exptsonthoseofChina.Keywds:ChinatradeexptsrealexchangerateI.IntroductionChina’sshareinwldtradehasincreasedextremelyrapidlyduringthepastyears.Infactitisalreadyoneofthelar

6、gestexptersinthewldtogetherwithGermanytheUnitedStates.UntilrecentlyChina’stradebalancewasveryclosetozero.AccdingtoChinascustomsstatisticsitstradesurplusamountedtomereUSD32billion(1.7%ofGDP)in2004(Graph1).Howeversince2005

7、thetradesurplushasballooned:itreachednearlyUSD180billionin2006(closeto7%ofGDP)increasedfurtherin2007tomethan10%ofGDP.3showevidencethattheSoutheastAsiancountriesdonotseemabletocompensatefthereductionintheirexptstoChinabyi

8、ncreasingexptstoothercountriesastheirtotalexptsaregenerallynegativelyaffectedbytherenminbi’sappreciation.InotherwdsexptsfromSoutheastAsiancountriesseemtobeacomplementtoexptsfromChinaratherthanasubstitutefthem.Therestofth

9、epaperisganizedasfollows.Section2reviewstheexistingliterature.Section3describesthemethodologythedataused.Section4presentstheresultsonhowChina’sexptsimptsreacttochangesintheexchangeratedem.InSection5wedigdeeperintotheissu

10、eofwhyChineseimptsdonotgetaboostfromtherenminbi’sappreciationtodosoweestimatebilateraltradeequationswithChina’smaintradepartnersthenanalysetheexptequationsofedAsiancountries.Section6concludes.IV.ResultsfChina’simptexpteq

11、uationsAsapreliminarystepwetestfthederofintegrationofthevariablesincludedinouranalysis.WeusetheaugmentedDickeyFuller(ADF)testsftheexistenceofaunitroot.Nearlyallvariablesarefoundtobenonstationaryinlevelsbutstationaryinfir

12、stdifferences.WethentestftheexistenceofcointegrationvectsusingtheJohansenprocedure.Wefindatleastonecointegratingvectfeachvariablegroup.AsproposedbyPhillipsLetan(1991)thepresenceofthecointegratingvectsallowsustoestimatear

13、egressionofthelaggeddeterminantstheirdifferencesthroughanonlinearleastsquaresapproach.Suchanapproachwillyieldunbiasedconsistentestimatesofthelongrunshtrunparameters.Besidesregressionsonexptimptequationsfourfullsample(199

14、4–2005)wealsoransuchregressionsfashterperiod(2000–05)thatconcentratesontheperiodofWTOinfluence.Inbothcasesweconsideritimptanttodistinguishbetweenprocesseddinarytradethereferunseparateequationsfeachoftheminthecaseofbothex

15、ptsimpts.Themaximumnumberofshttermlagsintroducedintheequationswasthreeweultimatelyincludedonlythosethatwerestatisticallysignificant.ThefullresultsftheexptequationscanbefoundinTableA2intheAppendix.16Asexpectedlongrunexcha

16、ngerateelasticitiesofChina’sexpts–bothprocesseddinaryarenegativesignificantinourfullsamplealsoafterWTOentry.Whenappropriatelytransfmed(seeTable2)theestimatedlongrunimpactoftherealexchangerateisaround–1.3fprocessedexptsfb

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