股票市場(chǎng)外文翻譯

1、<p>　　中文4500字，2890單詞，英文字符15350</p><p>　　The earliest research on the “mysterious volatility” of stock market was from LeRoy & Porter (1981) and Shiller (1981). They found that the actual volatility

2、of the stock price was always higher than the theoretical value from the Variance border examination. Therefore they came to a conclusion that the variation of actual stock price is relatively higher as to the fundamenta

3、ls of the stock. That is to say, there is a phenomenon of " undue volatility". Shiller believe that if the stock price in </p><p>　　Chinese scholars have noticed the same phenomenon. Xu Jianguo (20

4、10) indicates that the rate of return in China's A-share index in the past 1-5 years can make a opposite prediction of that in the next 1-5 years, which suggests that stock prices have some unstable components of und

5、ue volatility that exist in most of the industries. And only agriculture, forestry and fishing, gas, and water supply enterprises don’t have the problem.</p><p>　　Jin Dehuan and Wang Yu Ming (2012) quantized

6、 the rate of return to the undue volatility stock for the first time by using the square deviation index. Based on the actual proof of A share’s daily rate of return from 1995 to 2010. They indicates that there is undue

7、volatility in the A share market’ daily rate of return caused by the investors’ overreaction, and this additional risk expels the rational investors who tend to avoid risks, making underestimations in the stock market.&l

8、t;/p><p>　　Zhou Hongrong (2012) Et al tested China's A shares data from year 1994 to 2009 and found that whether constant excess rate of return model or V-CAMP model cannot explain the “mysterious volatilit

9、y” existing in our A shares market.Measurable methods that are studied to measure the undue volatility are as following:</p><p>　　The method used most often at home and abroad is the method of stock return

10、 rate autocorrelation, which corresponds with the theory of the effective market assumption. It holds the view that the present stock price has fully represented reflect all the information (Fama, 1970&1991). The eff

11、ective market assumption is divided into three parts, including strong, medium and weak assumptions, which are matched to all the trading, public, undisclosed, disclosed information respectively. If the market</p>

12、<p>　　Shiller (1981)first adopted the second method. He compared the future profit discount with actual and historical prices to see the variation between actual prices and calculated ones by using historical stock

13、 data to approximately calculate the actual value of stock, that is, through fundamental researches.</p><p>　　The third often used is time-analyzing method. It is a way relatively suitable for individual sto

14、ck study. It make a judgment whether the reaction of stock price is promote and accurate by observing the effect that some specific incidents have on stock price. But there is a problem in this method. It is difficult fo

15、r the investigators to separate the price variation from incidents. However, in actual life, it is difficult to find relevant incidents to big price variation(Culter, poterba & Summer</p><p>　　Another of

16、ten used method is to divide stock into "winner team" and “l(fā)oser team” in accordance with the profit rate in the past to compare the future rate of return. Because the effective market assumption indicates that

17、 the stock price in the future should be random, Therefore there is little difference between two teams. But if there is a phenomenon of overreaction, the “winner team” profit rate will be reversed, So in the future the

18、rate of return of "winner team" may be lower than that of </p><p>　　In addition, there are some indicators that can account for undue volatility in the early times. Jijian (2011) made a summary o

19、f the four methods that can measure the undue volatility of stock price : earnings ratio (P / E), stock market capitalization / GDP, stock price bubbles expansion rate and stock price bubbles degree. These four methods h

20、ave some deficiencies, so they are not accurate measurement implement of undue volatility, but they are of certain reference significance.</p><p>　　The explanation of the phenomenon </p><p>　　Be

21、hind the undue volatility of stock prices there are some very complicated mechanism. Therefore in the existing research, especially in the domestic literature, the causes are not being discussed comprehensively. This art

22、icle made a summary of some of the points in literature in the past, and put forward some explanations. It mainly discuss some possible factors from three aspects: investors, quoted companies and countries.</p>&

23、lt;p>　　3.1 investors </p><p>　　3.1.1 The cognitive offset of investors </p><p>　　The study on the irrational behaviors of investors comes from the rise of economics. Researchers began to cons

24、ider that a individual’ cognitive deviation may be caused by the decision of deviation. Behavioral economics was first created by Mr Kahneman, whose prospect theory emphasizes people’ cognitive differences, and explains

25、the investors' tendency of hatred towards risk.</p><p>　　Miller (1997) demonstrated that without empty mechanism in the market, every investor disagrees on the same stock, so it usually should be determ

26、ined by the most optimistic investors, which makes stock prices tend to be overestimated. Delong, Shleifer, Summers & Waldmann (DSSW) has established "noise trader model", which plays an important role in t

27、he determination of the stock price, and the effective market will fail (1990) with too much noise. </p><p>　　The commonplace cognitive deviation are mainly as follows: 1, overconfidence: that is, people alw

28、ays tend to overestimate their own judgment of things. This phenomenon is very common in the process of stock trading. The extreme stock prices caused by overconfidence is most the important reason for the undue volatili

29、ty of the stock price. Tekce & Y ? lmaz (2015) study found that overconfidence is very common in the individual investors in the stock market, and it is more common in young man and l</p><p>　　So we Spec

30、ulate that overconfidence may be an important factor of the share prices volatility. 2, reference point: which means people often need to find a compared reference in the process of making decisions, and the choice of po

31、int is subjective. In the process of stock trading, people tend to compare the stock with the same range, and this could lead to a general overestimation of prices in the same filed. 3,the hatred towards risk: which mean

32、s the price variation of equal value, and the psyc</p><p>　　3.1.2 the emotional effects of the investors </p><p>　　Lee, Shleifer and Thaler (LST) , based on DSSW, put forward the investor emoti

33、onal assumption, which supports that the change of the discount can be explained by the change of investor’ emotions (1991). Wei-hua zhu and Zhang Zongxin(2008) found in their study that the investors’ emotion are easily

34、 influencd by noisy traders, and other traders can skillfully utilize the strategy of noisy traders to get excess profits in the gambling. In the mechanism of market volatility, there is a dynamic rela</p><p&

35、gt;　　Through establishing the investors` behavior model of the stock market, Westerhoff (2004) finds that the stock market shows a rising trend on the whole, but sometimes the share price falls sharply; investors can re

36、main cool when the fluctuation of the stock price is low, but it will generate the investors both greed and fear no matter the stock price is turning high or low when the stock price fluctuation is higher. This kind of e

37、motional fluctuations as the positive feedback of the share price</p><p>　　There are abundant research accomplishments about the influence towards the emotion on individual decision-making in the field of ps

38、ychology. Ma Ying `s (2009) study shows that different emotional valence can lead to different influence towards individuals` decision-making behavior. Individuals can bid higher under the positive emotion. On the contra

39、ry, individual may bid low under the negative valence. Therefore, shareholders are in high spirit in the bull market thus leading to a more aggressi</p><p>　　3.1.3 The immature characteristics of the investo

40、rs</p><p>　　Because Chinese stock market is relatively young, most investors are short of experience. On the one hand, many Chinese shareholders don’t have enough knowledge and experience related to the stoc

41、k market, so most of them choose to follow the investment strategy of "chasing the rises and ignoring the fall", which may causes the excessive volatility of the share price; on the other hand, some investors m

42、ay have great fear after experiencing the sharp drop in the history of Chinese stock market, th</p><p>　　On the other hand, the Chinese investors` financing structure isn’t mature. The majority of Chinese sh

43、areholders are retails—the cost of financing is higher; the portfolio is of the single contents and the higher leverage, which gives rise to the limitation of their risk-bearing ability and the unwillingness of holding t

44、he stock for a long term, therefore makes their speculative nature more obvious. High leverage leads to the so-called "herd behavior": government policy’s being read too much; in</p><p>　　3.2 quote

45、d company</p><p>　　3.2.1 Information disclosure</p><p>　　Keown and Pinkerton`s (1981) study showed that the 40% - 50% rise of the share price appears before the public release of the merger anno

46、uncement, so they affirm that the insider dealing is prevalent. Zeng Ying, Lu Zhengfei (2006) found that the quality of information disclosure influences the cost of equity financing. Hence, a fine information disclosure

47、 makes for the formation of a reasonable share price. However, according to Wu Shuxia’s (2006) study, the information disclosure of China’s sec</p><p>　　The main problems of the information disclosure includ

48、e the authenticity and accuracy issues. (Chen Zhengrong & pan Hermione, 2012). The distortion of the information disclosure of China’s listed corporations majorly performed in the phenomenon of false statements and m

49、isrepresentation, which means to make inconsistent record of the truth on the documents of information disclosure. From the content of Information disclosure violations, it refers to the connected transaction, the illega

50、l guarante</p><p>　　The imperfection of the company information disclosure gives rise to investors’ inability to get all the information when choosing which company to invest, thus unable to make decisions r

51、ationally. Because of the uncertainty of the information, investors usually add their subjective speculations to the investment decision-making process, which is one of the important factors that causing the excessive fl

52、uctuation of share price.</p><p>　　3.2.2 Business transformation</p><p>　　Nowadays, China is in the industrial transition. Quite a few enterprises begin to adjust their business strategies, incr

53、ease the industrial innovation, increase the investment in research and development, which increase the uncertainty of investors enterprises’ judgment in the future, so the gap between different investors’ judgment is e

54、nlarged, too. According to Yao Kaohua(2013) and his fellow teammates’ study based on the stock of gem, investors in the stock market can give reactions when the</p><p>　　3.3 The national level</p>&l

55、t;p>　　3.3.1 Macro economy</p><p>　　There are some inner relations between the share price volatility and the macro economy to some extent, economic conditions can influence the operating conditions of the

56、 enterprises, thus further influence the rate of return of the stock market. This kind of stock market known as " the barometer" of the national economy. According to Hamilton’s (1996) study, the volatility of

57、 the stock market shows the global economic activity has prediction functions to some extent. Ebell & Haefke(2009) Ebell </p><p>　　Liu Jiashu (2008) made a research on the macro economy China long-term c

58、hanges and came to the conclusion that there was a positive correlation between the share price and macro economy. According to Xiao Bianying’s (2004) study, , the growth of China's SHi index and the GDP and currency

59、 remain the same in the long term, while remain a positive correlation with prices, interest rates and the exchange rates, which is on the contrary with the short-term conclusion.</p><p>　　3.3.2 National pol

60、icy</p><p>　　The relationship between the fluctuation of stock price and the national policy is unspoken, especially in China, the stock market cannot work well without the support of the national policy. Li

61、 Chenggang (2003) holds the opinion that China’s stock market is related to the special “policy market" system closely. Peng Wenping and Ji Hui Xiao’s (2002) study shows that government’s using policy to adjust the

62、stock market cannot stabilize the stock market but leads to the aggravation of the stock ma</p><p>　　3.3.3 Institutional factors</p><p>　　The increase of the negotiable shares after The equity d

63、ivision system reform greatly relieves the estimation-lacking problem in China stock market. However, from the view of China's stock issuing system itself, the harsh-examined and difficult-listed system still restric

64、t the number of listed corporations to a great extent. Due to the out-of-balance between supply and demand the stock price is raised high, and excessive price fluctuations rise in the stock market. On the other hand, owi

65、ng to th</p><p>　　最早對(duì)于股票市場(chǎng)的“波動(dòng)性之謎”的研究源自于LeRoy & Porter(1981)和Shiller(1981)，他們通過(guò)方差邊界的檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)早期美國(guó)股市實(shí)際股價(jià)的波動(dòng)總是大于理論值，因此他們得出結(jié)論稱相對(duì)于股票的基本面而言，實(shí)際股價(jià)的變化幅度較大，也就是說(shuō)存在著“過(guò)度波動(dòng)”的現(xiàn)象。Shiller認(rèn)為如果當(dāng)前的股票價(jià)格等于未來(lái)收入流的貼現(xiàn)值，那么只有未被預(yù)期到的收入流變

66、化才會(huì)引起估價(jià)的變化，因此股價(jià)的變動(dòng)幅度應(yīng)該小于收入流的變動(dòng)，但數(shù)據(jù)卻恰恰相反。隨后，F(xiàn)ama & French(1988)，Poterba & Summers(1988)采用美國(guó)以及其他17個(gè)較發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家的數(shù)據(jù)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，在3-5年的時(shí)間間隔內(nèi)股票指數(shù)的回報(bào)率都是負(fù)向自相關(guān)的，也就是說(shuō)存在著股指對(duì)過(guò)度波動(dòng)的修正。Culter，Poterba & Summer(1991)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)這種過(guò)度波動(dòng)現(xiàn)象不僅僅存在于股票市場(chǎng)，

67、還存在于債券、外匯、古董和貴金屬交易市場(chǎng)。</p><p>　　中國(guó)的學(xué)者也發(fā)現(xiàn)了同樣的現(xiàn)象。徐建國(guó)(2010)通過(guò)回報(bào)率自相關(guān)法研究表明，我國(guó)A股指數(shù)過(guò)去1-5年的回報(bào)率能夠反向預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)1-5年的回報(bào)率，這表明股票價(jià)格含有過(guò)度波動(dòng)的不穩(wěn)定成分；而且這種過(guò)度波動(dòng)存在于大多數(shù)的行業(yè)，僅有農(nóng)林牧漁和店里、煤氣、水供應(yīng)企業(yè)不存在該現(xiàn)象。金德環(huán)和汪宇明(2012)首次采用方差差指標(biāo)對(duì)股票回報(bào)率過(guò)度波動(dòng)進(jìn)行量化，基于199

68、5年至2010年的A股日回報(bào)率實(shí)證結(jié)果表明，A股市場(chǎng)日回報(bào)率波動(dòng)中存在投資者過(guò)度反應(yīng)導(dǎo)致的過(guò)度波動(dòng)，這種額外的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)“驅(qū)逐”了風(fēng)險(xiǎn)回避的理性投資者，使得股市出現(xiàn)低估。周洪榮等人(2012)對(duì)我國(guó)A股1994年-2009年期間的數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)發(fā)現(xiàn)無(wú)論是常數(shù)超額收益率模型還是V-CAMP模型都無(wú)法對(duì)我國(guó)A股市場(chǎng)存在的“波動(dòng)性之謎”做出解釋。</p><p>　　當(dāng)前研究中測(cè)量過(guò)度波動(dòng)的數(shù)據(jù)測(cè)度方法主要有以下幾種：<

69、/p><p>　　國(guó)內(nèi)外使用最多的方法是股票回報(bào)率自相關(guān)法，它對(duì)應(yīng)的理論是有效市場(chǎng)假說(shuō)。該假說(shuō)認(rèn)為當(dāng)前的股票價(jià)格已經(jīng)充分反映了全部信息(Fama, 1970&1991)。有效市場(chǎng)假說(shuō)分為強(qiáng)、中、弱三個(gè)假說(shuō)，分別對(duì)應(yīng)了市場(chǎng)上全部的交易信息、公開(kāi)信息和所有公開(kāi)未公開(kāi)的信息。如果市場(chǎng)是有效的，那么股票的各種信息都不能被用來(lái)預(yù)測(cè)未來(lái)的股票回報(bào)率，因此股價(jià)在未來(lái)的表現(xiàn)應(yīng)該為隨機(jī)游走。如果存在著對(duì)信息的過(guò)度反應(yīng)，那么這種

70、反應(yīng)在未來(lái)會(huì)得到修正，因此就會(huì)發(fā)生股票價(jià)格的反轉(zhuǎn)，也就是說(shuō)股票的回報(bào)率在反轉(zhuǎn)發(fā)生的時(shí)間段內(nèi)應(yīng)該存在著負(fù)向的自相關(guān)。</p><p>　　第二種方法是Shiller(1981)最早采用的方法。通過(guò)股票的歷史數(shù)據(jù)近似的計(jì)算股票的真實(shí)價(jià)值，也就是通過(guò)基本面研究，將未來(lái)的收益貼現(xiàn)，然后與實(shí)際的歷史價(jià)格進(jìn)行比較，看實(shí)際價(jià)格與其計(jì)算出的貼現(xiàn)價(jià)值之間的波動(dòng)大小。</p><p>　　第三種常用的方法是時(shí)

71、間分析法，這是比較適用于個(gè)股研究的一種方法。通過(guò)觀察具體的事件對(duì)股票價(jià)格的影響，判斷股票的反應(yīng)是否迅速而準(zhǔn)確。但是這種方法存在著一定的問(wèn)題，研究者很難把股價(jià)變動(dòng)中該事件產(chǎn)生的影響剝離出來(lái)，而且現(xiàn)實(shí)中往往有些很大的價(jià)格變動(dòng)難以找到對(duì)應(yīng)的事件(Culter, poterba & Summers, 1989)。</p><p>　　另外一種比較常見(jiàn)的方法是將股票按照過(guò)去的收益率劃分成“贏者組合”和“輸者組合”，

72、比較兩種組合的未來(lái)回報(bào)率。因?yàn)橛行袌?chǎng)假說(shuō)表明股價(jià)未來(lái)應(yīng)該為隨機(jī)游走，因此“贏者組合”和“輸者組合”未來(lái)回報(bào)率應(yīng)該沒(méi)有顯著差異。但是，如果存在著過(guò)度反應(yīng)的現(xiàn)象，“贏者組合”的收益率會(huì)出現(xiàn)反轉(zhuǎn)，因此在未來(lái)“贏者組合”的回報(bào)率可能會(huì)低于“輸者組合”。</p><p>　　此外早期還有一些指標(biāo)可以說(shuō)明過(guò)度波動(dòng)。季健(2011)總結(jié)了測(cè)量股價(jià)過(guò)度波動(dòng)的四個(gè)方法：市盈率法（P/E）、股市市值/GDP、股價(jià)泡沫膨脹率和股價(jià)泡

73、沫度。這四種方法都存在一定的缺陷，因此不能作為準(zhǔn)確測(cè)量過(guò)度波動(dòng)的工具，但都具有一定的參考意義。</p><p><b>　　現(xiàn)象解釋</b></p><p>　　股價(jià)的過(guò)度波動(dòng)背后有非常復(fù)雜的機(jī)制，因此現(xiàn)有研究中，尤其是國(guó)內(nèi)文獻(xiàn)，對(duì)原因的綜述性探討比較少，本文總結(jié)了以往的一些文獻(xiàn)中的觀點(diǎn)，并提出了一些自己的解釋，在這里主要從投資者、上市公司和國(guó)家三個(gè)層面嘗識(shí)性的提出一

74、些可能的影響因素。</p><p><b>　　3.1 投資者</b></p><p>　　3.1.1 投資者的認(rèn)知偏差</p><p>　　對(duì)于投資者非理性行為的研究源自于行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的興起，研究者開(kāi)始考慮到個(gè)體受到的認(rèn)知偏差而導(dǎo)致的決策偏差。行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)最早是由Kahneman開(kāi)創(chuàng)的，在他的前景理論中強(qiáng)調(diào)了人們認(rèn)知上的差異，解釋了投資者的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)厭

75、惡傾向。Miller(1997)論證了在沒(méi)有做空機(jī)制的市場(chǎng)下，每個(gè)投資者對(duì)同一個(gè)股票價(jià)位存在意見(jiàn)分歧，那么這個(gè)股票的價(jià)格通常是由最樂(lè)觀的投資者決定的，因此股票價(jià)格往往被高估。Delong, Shleifer, Summers & Waldmann (DSSW)建立了“噪聲交易者模型”，該模型認(rèn)為噪聲在股價(jià)決定中發(fā)揮了重要的作用，噪聲過(guò)大將導(dǎo)致有效市場(chǎng)失敗(1990)。</p><p>　　常見(jiàn)的認(rèn)知偏差主

76、要有以下幾種：1、過(guò)度自信：即人們往往會(huì)高估自己對(duì)事物的判斷，這種現(xiàn)象在股票交易過(guò)程中屢見(jiàn)不鮮，由于過(guò)度自信造成的股票價(jià)格的極端化是股票價(jià)格過(guò)度波動(dòng)的重要原因。Tekçe & Y?lmaz (2015)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，過(guò)度自信行為在股票市場(chǎng)的個(gè)人投資者中非常普遍，有較多男性、年輕、低資產(chǎn)組合價(jià)值、低收入和教育的地區(qū)存在更多的過(guò)度自信現(xiàn)象。這種過(guò)度自信通常是對(duì)資產(chǎn)組合價(jià)值有害的，往往造成對(duì)股價(jià)的高估。因此我們猜測(cè)過(guò)度自信可能是

77、造成股價(jià)波動(dòng)的一個(gè)重要原因。2、參照點(diǎn)：指的是人們?cè)谧鞒鰶Q策的過(guò)程中往往需要與一個(gè)參照物進(jìn)行比較，而參照點(diǎn)的選擇具有很大的主觀性。在股票交易中，人們往往選擇同行業(yè)的其他股票進(jìn)行比較，而這就可能造成同一領(lǐng)域價(jià)格的普遍高估。3、損失厭惡：指同等數(shù)值的價(jià)格變動(dòng)，損失產(chǎn)生的心理效應(yīng)作用更大。</p><p>　　3.1.2 投資者的情緒作用</p><p>　　Lee, Shleifer &

78、; Thaler(LST)在DSSW的基礎(chǔ)上提出了投資者情緒假說(shuō)，該假說(shuō)認(rèn)為折價(jià)的變化可以通過(guò)投資者情緒的變化來(lái)進(jìn)行解釋(1991)。朱偉驊和張宗新(2008)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國(guó)投資者情緒容易受到噪音交易者的影響，其他交易者可以巧妙地利用噪聲交易者的策略在博弈中獲得超額的利潤(rùn)。在市場(chǎng)波動(dòng)的機(jī)制中，投資者的情緒和股價(jià)的變化存在動(dòng)態(tài)的關(guān)系，股價(jià)泡沫的存在引發(fā)了正反饋，促進(jìn)了投機(jī)性泡沫的形成。</p><p>　　West

79、erhoff(2004)通過(guò)建立股票市場(chǎng)投資者行為模型結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，從整體上來(lái)看，股票市場(chǎng)呈現(xiàn)上升趨勢(shì)，但是有時(shí)候股票會(huì)急劇下跌，當(dāng)股價(jià)波動(dòng)較小時(shí)投資者會(huì)保持冷靜，但是當(dāng)股價(jià)波動(dòng)較大時(shí)，無(wú)論是股價(jià)上漲或下跌，都會(huì)使投資者同時(shí)產(chǎn)生貪婪和恐懼的情緒。這種情緒的波動(dòng)作為股價(jià)的正反饋可能繼續(xù)影響股價(jià)的變化，因此對(duì)股價(jià)的過(guò)度波動(dòng)有一定的解釋作用。</p><p>　　情緒對(duì)個(gè)體決策的影響在心理學(xué)領(lǐng)域有豐富的研究成果。馬英(20

80、09)的研究表明，不同的情緒效價(jià)對(duì)個(gè)體的決策行為產(chǎn)生不同的影響。在積極情緒下下，個(gè)體出價(jià)更高。消極效價(jià)下，個(gè)體表現(xiàn)出較低的出價(jià)。因此在牛市情形下，股民情緒高漲，決策更加冒進(jìn)，對(duì)股票價(jià)格形成較高的股指，導(dǎo)致了股票價(jià)格的過(guò)度上漲；而當(dāng)股票下跌，股民消極情緒明顯，股票估值下降，導(dǎo)致價(jià)格的跌幅過(guò)大。</p><p>　　3.1.3 投資者的不成熟特征</p><p>　　中國(guó)的股票市場(chǎng)比較年輕，投

81、資者的經(jīng)驗(yàn)不足。一方面，許多的中國(guó)股民并沒(méi)有相關(guān)的知識(shí)和經(jīng)驗(yàn)，很多股民遵循著“追漲殺跌”的投資策略，而這種策略往往使得股價(jià)過(guò)度波動(dòng)；另一方面，一些股民在經(jīng)歷過(guò)中國(guó)歷史上的大幅下跌后，恐懼情緒較大，因此可能對(duì)股價(jià)的暫時(shí)性下跌存在過(guò)度的反應(yīng)。李雄軍(2007)在總結(jié)過(guò)度波動(dòng)的原因時(shí)指出，中國(guó)股市上漲時(shí)，大家爭(zhēng)先恐后進(jìn)入，聽(tīng)聞要跌便該快賣出，高換手率導(dǎo)致了股價(jià)較大的波動(dòng)，實(shí)際上更具備了賭博的性質(zhì)。</p><p>　　

82、另一方面，中國(guó)投資者融資結(jié)構(gòu)也不成熟。中國(guó)股民散戶居多，融資成本較大，投資組合內(nèi)容單一，杠桿水平較高，導(dǎo)致他們風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承受能力有限，導(dǎo)致其不愿長(zhǎng)期持有股票，投機(jī)性質(zhì)更加明顯。高杠桿率導(dǎo)致了所謂的“羊群效應(yīng)”，政府的政策被過(guò)分解讀，股民擔(dān)心被套，因此寧愿“割肉”賣出股票，導(dǎo)致股票市場(chǎng)崩盤似下跌。</p><p><b>　　3.2 上市公司</b></p><p>　　3.

83、2.1 信息披露</p><p>　　Keown、Pinkerton(1981)的研究表明，公司的股價(jià)上漲的40%-50%出現(xiàn)在兼并公告公開(kāi)發(fā)布前，因此他們斷言說(shuō)內(nèi)幕交易是具有普遍性的。曾穎、陸正飛(2006)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)信息披露的質(zhì)量影響了股權(quán)融資的成本。因此，良好的信息披露有利于合理股價(jià)的形成，但是吳曙霞(2006)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，我國(guó)出證券、銀行、保險(xiǎn)公司以外的其他上市公司信息披露并不理想。</p>&

84、lt;p>　　信息披露的主要問(wèn)題包括真實(shí)性問(wèn)題和準(zhǔn)確性問(wèn)題(陳崢嶸&潘妙麗，2012)。我國(guó)上市公司的信息披露失真主要表現(xiàn)在上市公司信息披露存在虛假陳述和虛假記載等現(xiàn)象，即在信息披露的文件上做出與事實(shí)真相不符的記載。從信息披露違規(guī)的內(nèi)容看，涉及關(guān)聯(lián)交易、違規(guī)擔(dān)保、實(shí)際控制人變動(dòng)、公司對(duì)外投資等重大事件。而信息的準(zhǔn)確性是指披露信息準(zhǔn)確、無(wú)誤、易懂。“財(cái)務(wù)造假”、“公司印象管理”等現(xiàn)象層出不窮。</p><

85、p>　　公司信息披露的不完善導(dǎo)致投資者在選擇公司的時(shí)候無(wú)法獲得全部信息，無(wú)法做出符合理性的決策。由于信息的不確定性，投資者往往在投資決策過(guò)程中加入自己的主觀臆測(cè)，這也是造成股價(jià)過(guò)度波動(dòng)的重要原因之一。</p><p>　　3.2.2 企業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型</p><p>　　中國(guó)當(dāng)前正出于產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型期，大量企業(yè)調(diào)整經(jīng)營(yíng)策略，增加產(chǎn)業(yè)創(chuàng)新，加大研發(fā)投入，使得投資者企業(yè)未來(lái)判斷的不確定性增加，因此不同

86、投資者之間判斷的差距也就越大。姚靠華等人(2013年)基于對(duì)創(chuàng)業(yè)板的股票研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，當(dāng)企業(yè)采取新的研發(fā)投入或者獲得研發(fā)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展時(shí)，股票市場(chǎng)的投資者能夠做出反應(yīng)。研發(fā)投入與企業(yè)未來(lái)股價(jià)波動(dòng)存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系，而研發(fā)項(xiàng)目進(jìn)展與企業(yè)未來(lái)股價(jià)波動(dòng)負(fù)相關(guān)。在其他條件不變的情況下，研發(fā)進(jìn)展越成功的項(xiàng)目與企業(yè)未來(lái)股價(jià)波動(dòng)的負(fù)相關(guān)程度越強(qiáng)；研發(fā)進(jìn)展越成功的項(xiàng)目對(duì)研發(fā)投入和企業(yè)未來(lái)股價(jià)波動(dòng)的負(fù)向調(diào)節(jié)作用越強(qiáng)。中國(guó)企業(yè)當(dāng)前正處于轉(zhuǎn)型初期，有大量的研發(fā)投入，但是項(xiàng)

87、目進(jìn)展并不是十分明確，因此股價(jià)過(guò)度波動(dòng)也是與研究結(jié)果相符的。</p><p><b>　　3.3 國(guó)家層面</b></p><p>　　3.3.1 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)</p><p>　　股價(jià)波動(dòng)于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)之間應(yīng)該存在一定的內(nèi)在聯(lián)系，經(jīng)濟(jì)的狀況能夠影響公司的運(yùn)營(yíng)狀況，進(jìn)而影響了股市的回報(bào)率，此股市素有國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)“晴雨表”之稱。Hamilton(1996)研

88、究認(rèn)為股票市場(chǎng)的波動(dòng)性反應(yīng)了經(jīng)濟(jì)總體的活動(dòng)，具有一定的預(yù)測(cè)作用。Ebell & Haefke(2009)研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，經(jīng)濟(jì)蕭條時(shí)期宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的變動(dòng)能夠引起股市的巨大變動(dòng)。劉家樹(2008)對(duì)中國(guó)長(zhǎng)期的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變動(dòng)觀察發(fā)現(xiàn)，股價(jià)與宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)存在正相關(guān)的關(guān)系。肖變英(2004)研究表明，從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看，我國(guó)上證指數(shù)與GDP和貨幣供應(yīng)量保持同向增長(zhǎng)，與物價(jià)、利率、匯率負(fù)相關(guān)，但短期結(jié)論完全相反。</p><p>　　3

89、.3.2 國(guó)家政策</p><p>　　股價(jià)波動(dòng)與國(guó)家政策之間的關(guān)系是不言而明的，尤其是在中國(guó)，股市的興衰離不開(kāi)國(guó)家的政策支持。李成剛(2003)認(rèn)為中國(guó)股市的交易行為與中國(guó)特殊的“政策市”制度息息相關(guān)。彭文平、肖繼輝(2002)的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，政府運(yùn)用政策調(diào)整股市不但不能起到穩(wěn)定股市的作用，反而會(huì)造成和加劇股市的波動(dòng)。2015年中國(guó)股市迎來(lái)了新的春天，這與中國(guó)政府對(duì)股市的推動(dòng)作用密不可分，政府對(duì)“國(guó)企改革”、“互聯(lián)

90、網(wǎng)+”、“國(guó)企重組”的大力推動(dòng)引發(fā)了轟轟烈烈的炒作熱潮?？梢钥闯?，中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)的過(guò)度波動(dòng)離不開(kāi)國(guó)家政策這一雙無(wú)形的手，推動(dòng)了人們對(duì)信息的過(guò)度反應(yīng)。</p><p>　　3.3.3 制度因素</p><p>　　中國(guó)在股權(quán)分置制度改革后流通股股數(shù)增加，極大地緩解了中國(guó)股票市場(chǎng)估計(jì)不足的問(wèn)題。但是，從我國(guó)股票發(fā)行制度本身來(lái)看，這種審核過(guò)于嚴(yán)苛、上市過(guò)于困難的制度仍舊極大地限制了上市公司的數(shù)量，