上市公司內在價值分析外文翻譯

1、<p><b>　　中文2340字</b></p><p><b>　　畢業(yè)論文外文翻譯</b></p><p>　　2014年11月01日</p><p>　所在學院經濟與管理學院</p><p>　專 業(yè)財務管理</p><p>　班 級</p&g

2、t;<p>　學 號</p><p>　姓 名</p><p>　指導教師</p><p><b>　　譯文：</b></p><p>　　《上市公司內在價值分析》</p><p>　　一、 關于內在價值 </p><p>　　隨著中國資本市場的發(fā)展，

3、中國股市將逐步走向成熟，價值投資將在未來中國股市中占主導地位，證券市場的價值投資就是當證券的市場價格低于它的內在價值時買入，并長期持有或當證券的市場價格高于它的內在價值一定程度時賣出。因此，對于中國股市的價值投資而言首要問題是確定上市公司股票的內在價值。同時為了風險投資，企業(yè)并購和資產重組等資本運作的需要，迫切需要適合中國公司的可操作性強的價值評估體系。本杰明.格雷厄姆在《證券分析》這本書中是這樣描寫內在價值這個概念的總結性地概括： &

4、lt;/p><p>　　1、內在價值是無法確定具體數值的，難以把握的概念。 </p><p>　　2、內在價值可根據公司歷史收益數據來推算，但只可做參考。因為從歷史收益數據是無法估算出不確定的未來收益的。 </p><p>　　3、雖然無法得出內在價值的精確數字，但內在價值可以用一個近似值范圍來表達并用它判斷股價被高估或低估。 </p><p>

5、　　4 、市場價格經常偏離證券的實際價值。 </p><p>　　5、當市場價格偏離證券的實際價值時，市場中會出現自我糾正的趨勢。但對某些證券價值的高估和低估經常會持續(xù)極長的一段時間。</p><p>　　國內外評估公司內在價值的主要方法有：</p><p>　　(一)資產價值基礎法 </p><p>　　它是通過對公司資產進行估價的方式來評

6、估公司的價值。目前國際上通行的資產估價標準主要有 賬面價值 重置成本法和清算價值等。 </p><p><b>　　1、賬面價值法 </b></p><p>　　賬面價值法是一種基于會計理論的方法 根據資產負債表得出凈資產并進行適當調整 但結果可能不代表盈利能力，特點是簡便但不準確。</p><p><b>　　2 、重置成本法 &l

7、t;/b></p><p>　　重置成本法是指以目前的價格水平重新建造一個與被評估資產完全相同或類似的資產的成本 特點是立足于現在時點的資產價值 未考慮未來資產的收益情況。 </p><p><b>　　3 、清算價值法 </b></p><p>　　清算價值法是基于公司的總資產在市場變現后減去總負債的價值，特點是只考慮資產價值而沒有考慮

8、機構組織的無形資產和商譽（goodwill）適合于破產企業(yè)。</p><p>　　(二)現金流量貼現法 </p><p>　　現金流量貼現法的基石是現值規(guī)律。任何資產的價值等于其預期未來全部現金流的現值總和。現金流量因所估價資產的不同而各異。對股票而言，現金流是紅利。對債券而言，現金流是利息和本金。對于一個實際項目而言，現金流是稅后凈現金流。貼現率將取決于所預測的現金流的風險程度，資產風險

9、越高，貼現率就越高。反之，資產風險越低，貼現率就越低。根據現金流的來源不同，用于評估公司內在價值的主要有以下三種：</p><p><b>　　1、 股利貼現法 </b></p><p>　　股利貼現法也就是將公司未來預期股利貼現公司目前的價值。股利法從理論上能準確地計算出資產的真實價值，但在實際中很難操作。因為大部分企業(yè)派發(fā)股利是不定期和不定量的，部分企業(yè)在其成長期

10、根就不發(fā)股利，所以很難預測其股利派發(fā)情況并計算其價值。 </p><p>　　2、 公司自由現金流貼現法 </p><p>　　公司自由現金流是指在支付了經營費用和所得稅后，向包括債權人在內的所有公司權利要求者支付現金之前的全部現金流。 </p><p>　　3 、股權自由現金流貼現法 </p><p>　　股權自由現金流是指公司在履行了償

11、還債務、彌補資本性支出、增加營運資本等各種財務上的義務后所剩的那部分現金流。 </p><p>　　從理論上講對，有收益的資產，現金流量貼現法最能準確地計算出資產的真實價值，現金流量貼現法被絕大多數專業(yè)文獻認為是最科學，最成熟的公司評估方法。</p><p>　　企業(yè)的價值等于該企業(yè)以適當的貼現率所貼現的預期現金流量現值，所以這種方法要對公司資產未來的現金流量進行估計，并要選擇合理的貼現

12、率，特點是難度較大，操作比較復雜。</p><p><b>　?。ㄈ?）市盈率法 </b></p><p>　　如果能估計出目標公司未來可持續(xù)收益，而且股票市場存在一個平均的行業(yè)市盈率，用公司的當年稅后利潤乘以行業(yè)平均市盈率就可比較簡單地計算出公司大致的價值，市盈率法操作性強，但其隱含的前提是當地的股票市場是一個強式效率市場，即公司的市場價值等于內在價值，否則其計算結

13、果與公司的實際內在價值將可能產生極大的誤差。</p><p><b>　?。ㄋ?）其他方法 </b></p><p>　　有可比交易法、可比公司法、分散加總估價法、目標公司股價歷史分析法、M&A乘數法、杠桿收購法、杠桿資本調整法和總收入乘數法等。通常是投資銀行在企業(yè)兼并，收購和重組中使用的方法。 </p><p>　　（五 ）經濟增加值

14、（EVA）貼現法 </p><p>　　經濟增加值最基本的形式就是公司的剩余收入。也就是說，如果投資人得到的投資回報等于投資人投資的期望收益，公司的剩余收入等于零，該項投資的價值就等于該項投資的投資額。如果公司產生經濟增加值，將公司未來的經濟增加值折現后再加上公司的投資總額就應該等于公司的內在價值。</p><p>　　二、內在價值傳統(tǒng)分析原理評價</p><p>

15、　　內在價值傳統(tǒng)分析原理，融入各種財務和管理等理論，已形成較完備的原理體系，并已經在實務操作中深入人心，取得了較好的效果。而巴菲特則將內在價值傳統(tǒng)分析原理運用和深化到了極致，在現實投資世界里取得了巨大成功。但內在價值傳統(tǒng)分析原理還存在一些缺陷，需要進一步改進。</p><p>　　從方法層面來看，內在價值傳統(tǒng)分析原理的主要缺陷就是沒有形成一個統(tǒng)一分析框架：</p><p>　　(1)定性分

16、析較系統(tǒng)，但缺乏一個統(tǒng)一、簡單而嚴密的因果分析框架。</p><p>　　(2)定量分析只分析財務后果，沒有追溯至導致該結果的原因。</p><p>　　(3)定性與定量分析之間沒有建立應有的因果聯(lián)系，沒有統(tǒng)一的框架將定性分析和定量分析融于一體。</p><p>　　(4)定性分析、定量分析和價值估算之間缺乏緊密的因果邏輯聯(lián)系。</p><p&g

17、t;　　這篇文章對于上市公司內在價值的分析還只是初步的，在未來我們可以考慮對更多不同行業(yè)的公司進行案例研究，以完善內在價值因果分析原理和程序。因為不同行業(yè)的公司存在不同的行業(yè)特點和公司特點，應用研究可以起到較好的反饋效果?，F有的程序只是～個初步的方案，它需要大量的案例研究來加以修正。例如：我們在動因的選取上，只選擇了宏觀、行業(yè)及企業(yè)動因的分類法。在后續(xù)的研究中，我們可以針對分析的需要，選取不同的動因分類，構建不同的內在價值因果分析表。本

18、文在分析案例時，主要根據企業(yè)實際采用了利潤指標，在后續(xù)的研究中，可以針對不同行業(yè)選擇不同的特殊現金流指標，這有賴于分析者對于該行業(yè)的深入理解。</p><p><b>　　原文：</b></p><p>　　The intrinsic value of the listed companies is analyzed</p><p>　　Fir

19、st, about the intrinsic value. Along with the development of China's capital market, China's stock market will be gradually maturing, the value investment will account for the dominant position in China's sto

20、ck market in the future, the value of the securities market is when the market price of the securities investment below its intrinsic value when buying, and hold for a long time or when the stock market price is higher t

21、han its intrinsic value to a certain extent when selling. Therefore, </p><p>　　1, the intrinsic value is unable to determine the specific numerical, difficult to grasp the concept. </p><p>　　2,

22、intrinsic value according to the company history data to calculate returns, but can only be used for your reference. Because earnings figures from history is unable to estimate the uncertainty of future earnings. </p&

23、gt;<p>　　3, although can't get an accurate number of the intrinsic value, but the intrinsic value can express and use it in a range of approximation to determine share price is overvalued or undervalued. </

24、p><p>　　4, often deviate from the stock market price of real value. </p><p>　　5, when the real value of the market price deviating from the securities market will be the trend of self correcting. B

25、ut for some overvalued or undervalued securities value often lasts for very long period of time.</p><p>　　Second, to assess the intrinsic value of the company's main methods at home and abroad are:</p

26、><p>　　(a) asset value based method </p><p>　　It is the way through the study of the valuation of the company's assets to evaluate the value of the company. Current international book value of

27、assets valuation standards are on the replacement cost method and the liquidation value, etc. </p><p>　　1, book value method </p><p>　　Based on the theory of the accounting book value method is

28、a kind of method According to the balance sheet net assets and make appropriate adjustments But the result may not represent the profitability, the characteristic is easy but not accurate. </p><p>　　2, the r

29、eplacement cost method</p><p>　　Replacement cost method refers to the current price level to build a evaluation, and to be identical or similar assets cost characteristic is now based on the point value of t

30、he assets Did not think of the future asset returns. </p><p>　　3, the liquidation value </p><p>　　Liquidation value method is based on the company's total assets minus the value of total lia

31、bilities, after market to liquidate characteristic is only considered assets value without considering the organization's intangible assets and goodwill (goodwill) is suitable for the bankrupt enterprise.</p>

32、<p>　　(2) cash flow (DCF) method </p><p>　　The cornerstone of discounted cash flow method is present value rule. The value of any asset is equal to the total present value of all cash flows in the futur

33、e. Cash flow for the assets valuation varies. For stock, cash flow is dividends. For bonds, cash flow is the interest and principal. For a practical project, cash flow is the after-tax net cash flows. The discount rate w

34、ill depend on the degree of risk of the cash flow forecast, the higher risk assets, the higher the discount rate. On the </p><p>　　1, the dividend discount method </p><p>　　Dividend discount met

35、hod and the company's future is expected dividend discount the value of the company now. Dividend method theoretically can accurately calculate the real value of the assets, but in practice it is difficult to operate

36、. Because most corporate dividend distribution is irregular and not quantitative, some enterprises in its root is not hair dividends for a long time, so it is difficult to predict its dividend payments and calculate its

37、value. </p><p>　　2, corporate free cash flow discount method </p><p>　　Free cash flow is refers to the company after pay for business expenses and income tax, to all companies, including credito

38、rs rights requirement to pay cash before all of the cash flow. </p><p>　　3, equity free cash flow discount method </p><p>　　Free cash flow of equity is to point to in the performance of the comp

39、any to repay the debt, compensate for capital expenditure, increase working capital and other financial obligations after left that part of the cash flow. </p><p>　　Theoretically to have earnings assets, cas

40、h flow (DCF) method can accurately calculate the most the real value of the assets, cash flow (DCF) method is considered to be the most scientific, most professional literature method to estimate the most mature company.

41、</p><p>　　Equal to the value of the enterprise to present value of expected future cash flows discounted by the appropriate discount rate, so this kind of method to estimate the future cash flow of the asset

42、 to the company, and to choose the reasonable discount rate, features is difficult, and complicated operation.</p><p>　　(3) p/e ratio method </p><p>　　If we can estimate the target company's

43、 future sustainable yield, and there is a stock market average p/e ratio of industry, with the company's after-tax profit multiplied by the industry average p/e ratio can be relatively simple to calculate the value o

44、f company is roughly, p/e ratio method and feasible, but the underlying premise is that the local stock market is a strong form efficiency market, the company's market value is equal to the intrinsic value, otherwise

45、 the calculation results with</p><p>　　(4) other methods </p><p>　　Disperse aggregation have comparable transactions, comparable companies, valuation method, the target company's stock price

46、 history analysis, M&A multiplier, leveraged buyouts, leveraged capital adjustment method and income multiplier method, etc. Usually investment Banks in enterprise merger, acquisition and reorganization method. </

47、p><p>　　(5) economic value added (EVA) discount </p><p>　　Economic value added of the most basic form is surplus income of the company. In other words, if investors get the expected return on inves

48、tment is equal to the investors investment benefit, the company's residual income is equal to zero, the investment is equal to the value of the investment. If the company to produce economic value added, will be the

49、future of the company after discounting Eva plus the company's total investment should be equal to the intrinsic value of the company.</p><p>　　Three, the intrinsic value of traditional analysis principl

50、e of evaluation </p><p>　　Intrinsic value traditional analysis principle, blend in a variety of financial and management theory, has formed a relatively complete theory system, and has been deeply rooted in

51、the hearts of the people in the practice, good results have been achieved. Mr Buffett has applied intrinsic value traditional analysis principle and deepen to perfection, investment in the real world has been a huge succ

52、ess. But the inherent value of traditional analysis principle also has some defects, need to be fur</p><p>　　From the method level, intrinsic value is the main defect of traditional analysis principle did no

53、t form a unified analysis framework: </p><p>　　(1) the qualitative analysis of the system, but the lack of a unified, simple and strict causal analysis framework. </p><p>　　(2) quantitative anal

54、ysis only financial consequences, not back to the cause of the results. </p><p>　　(3) there is no established between qualitative and quantitative analysis of causal relationship, no unified framework will c

55、ombine qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. </p><p>　　(4) the qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, and lack of causal logic closely relationship between value estimate. </p><p&g

56、t;　　This article for the analysis of the intrinsic value of listed companies is only a preliminary, in the future we can consider to case studies of companies in different industries, to improve the intrinsic value causa

57、l analysis principle and procedures. Because the industry characteristics of different companies in different industries, and the characteristics of the company, applied research can have a good feedback. Existing progra