基于G-ANP方法的大型化工項目風險評價研究與應用.pdf

1、重慶大學碩士學位論文基于G-ANP方法的大型化工項目風險評價研究與應用姓名：安雪彤申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：管理科學與工程指導教師：楊育2010-03重慶大學碩士學位論文 英文摘要 II ABSTRACT Generally, there are many devices in large- scale chemical projects, and one- time investment is huge. In the

2、 construction process, there are also many risks coming from technology, environment, organization, management and so on, which may have great influence on the large- scale chemical project’ s sa

3、fety and economy. Currently, chemical industry in our country develops in high speed. Large- scale or even super- scale chemical projects are increasing day by day. So fully identification of po

4、tential risks in project, application of appropriate methods for the systematic evaluation of risks, development of the practical coping strategies for the risks, and implementation of effective

5、risk control measures are becoming an issue which is urgent for academic community and project builders. Considering this problem, on the basis of studying large number of articles and analyzin

6、g the traits of large- scale chemical projects in this field, this thesis set up an evaluation index system of the risks in large- scale chemical project; and then provide an evaluation method

7、 of large- scale chemical project based on Gray Statistical Evaluation and Analytic Network Process (G- ANP), which finally is applied and verified in risk evaluation of one large- scale integrate

8、d chemical project. The main contents of this thesis are as follows: First, this thesis analyses the current situation of risk analysis in large- scale chemical project, contrasts several method

9、s that commonly used in risk evaluation field, and then studying on the large chemical projects, its characteristics and problems existing in the risk evaluation, all of which provide theoretic

10、al support for the establishment of large- scale chemical projects’risk evaluation system. Then, this thesis set up a risk evaluation index system of large- scale project. First, it compares sever

11、al common methods of risk identification, and identifies the risk factors by refining the initial state of the project by Work Breakdown Structure (WBS). Then, according to the source of risks

12、 in large- scale chemical projects, the thesis gets a risk evaluation index system containing social environment, natural environment, technology, economy, management and organization as well as construc

13、tion risks. And then, considering the problems of complex correlation in risk factors, little quantitative risk analysis, insufficient basic information, combining with the gray characteristics in the process of ev