[教育]營運(yùn)資本和設(shè)備貸款的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn)

1、Credit Risks in Working Capital and Equipment Loans營運(yùn)資本和設(shè)備貸款的信用風(fēng)險(xiǎn),Alexandru Cebotari,Working Capital – Why Is It So Important營運(yùn)資本：為何這么重要？,The financial element of risk is defined as the inability of cash generation to:

2、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的財(cái)務(wù)元素被定義為現(xiàn)金流量不能達(dá)到以下情況：Maintain working capital 維持運(yùn)營資本Maintain productive assets 維持經(jīng)營性資產(chǎn)Meet debt service in schedule 不能定期還本付息Pay reasonable dividends 支付合理股息Maintain some borrowing power 維持一定的借款能力Cash

3、generation is defined as profits plus depreciation. Is it true?現(xiàn)金流量被定義為利潤加上折舊， 正確嗎？Operating expenses on the net income statement include depreciation expense, which does not require a cash outlay凈損益表上的運(yùn)營開支包括折舊開支（不需要

4、現(xiàn)金支出）Decrease in current assets, other then cash, have positive effects on cash flows, and increases in current assets have a negative effect.流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)而非現(xiàn)金的減少對(duì)于現(xiàn)金流有積極的影響，而流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)的增加則帶來消極的影響An increase in the current liabiliti

5、es has a positive effect, and a decrease in current liabilities has a negative effect. 流動(dòng)負(fù)債的增加有積極的影響，反之則有消極影響,Evaluating Historical Performance評(píng)價(jià)過往表現(xiàn),Income Statement損益表,,,Profitability?盈利能力,Return on Equity?凈資產(chǎn)收益

6、率,Non-Current Assets非流動(dòng)資產(chǎn),Sources and Uses of Funds資金的來源和使用,Long-Term Debt長期債務(wù),,Equity股權(quán),Change in W/C,Current Assets流動(dòng)資產(chǎn),Current Liabilities流動(dòng)負(fù)債,Volume Liquidity Needs,,,,,,Servicing還本付息,,Servicing還本付息,,Current

7、Creditor Commit-Ments流動(dòng)債權(quán)人承擔(dān)費(fèi),,,Deficiency?不足,Reserve?準(zhǔn)備金,,Long-Term Creditor Commit-Ments長期債權(quán)人的承擔(dān)費(fèi),,,Deficiency?不足,Reserve?準(zhǔn)備金,,,,,,,Evaluating Business Plans評(píng)價(jià)商業(yè)計(jì)劃,,,Manage-ment Ability管理能力,,,,,Funds Adequacy資金

8、充足,Environ-mental Coditions環(huán)境情況,Operating Practices操作規(guī)范,,,,Role of Working Capital營運(yùn)資本的角色,Current Assets流動(dòng)資產(chǎn),Current Liabilities流動(dòng)負(fù)債,Short-Term Creditors’ Commitments短期債權(quán)人承擔(dān)費(fèi),,,W/C,Non-Current Assets非流動(dòng)資產(chǎn),Long-Ter

9、m Debt長期負(fù)債,,Equity股權(quán),Long-Term Creditors’ Commitments長期債權(quán)人承擔(dān)費(fèi),,,W/C,Asset Conversion Cycle資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換周期,The Asset Conversion Cycle represents the number of days it takes a company to purchase raw materials, convert them int

10、o finished goods, sell the finished product to a customer and receive payment for the product資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換周期指一個(gè)公司采購原材料，轉(zhuǎn)換為成品，出售給客戶并收到付款的時(shí)間,庫存在庫天數(shù),應(yīng)收賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù),應(yīng)付賬款周轉(zhuǎn)天數(shù),現(xiàn)金周轉(zhuǎn)周期,The ACC has three components:資產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)換周期有三個(gè)部分：Days Receivab

11、les Outstanding應(yīng)收帳款收款天數(shù)Measures the average number of days from the sale of goods to the collection of receivables 衡量從貨物的出售到回收應(yīng)收賬款的平均天數(shù)(Average Accounts Receivables/Sales)*365 days （平均應(yīng)收賬款/銷售）* 3

12、65 天Days Inventory Held庫存持有天數(shù)Measures the average length of time between acquisition and sale of merchandise 衡量從獲得商品到出售商品之間的平均時(shí)間長度(Average Inventories/Cost of Goods Sold)*365 （平均庫存/出售貨物的成

13、本）* 365Days Accounts Payable Outstanding應(yīng)付賬款付款天數(shù)Measures the average length of time between the purchase of goods and payment for them 衡量從購買商品到支付款項(xiàng)之間的平均時(shí)間長度(Average Accounts Payable/Purchases)*365, whe

14、re （平均應(yīng)付賬款/采購）* 365 在這里，Purchases = Cost of Goods Sold+Ending Inventory–Beginning Inventory 采購=出售商品的成本+ 期末存貨-期初存貨,Cash Cycle Illustration現(xiàn)今周期說明,Cash Flow Quality現(xiàn)金流質(zhì)量,Servicing Current Liabiliti

15、es流動(dòng)負(fù)債處理,Sales volume, the rate of turnover of current assets, working capital and current creditors’ terms are factors that determine how a firm services current debts銷售量、流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率、營運(yùn)資本和當(dāng)前的貸款人條款等因素決定一個(gè)公司如何處理流動(dòng)負(fù)債Assume

16、that sales double, the firm operates with positive working capital position and the commitments from current creditors do not increase. What scenario do you foresee? 假定銷售增加一倍，公司的營運(yùn)資本為正，而目前的債權(quán)人提供的貸款額度沒有增加，你能預(yù)見什么情景？What

17、does happen if the rate ot turnover of current assets slows to half its former rate?如果流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)周轉(zhuǎn)率降至原先的一半，會(huì)發(fā)生什么狀況？What does happen if the firm operates with a deficit working capital requirement?如果公司在營運(yùn)資本為赤字的條件下運(yùn)營，會(huì)發(fā)生什么狀況？

18、,Overtrading? 過量交易？,There are four elements of risk associated with overtrading:與過量交易相關(guān)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)體現(xiàn)在4個(gè)方面：Serious depletion of profit; 利潤嚴(yán)重?fù)p耗Organization failure associated with high volume; 由于過量交易導(dǎo)致公司破產(chǎn)Receivables losses;

19、and 應(yīng)收帳款損失Inventory risks 存貨風(fēng)險(xiǎn)Rule of thumb: current assets should cover total debt at the seasonal low經(jīng)驗(yàn)法則：流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)應(yīng)包括季度最低峰時(shí)的總負(fù)債,Sustainable Growth可持續(xù)增長,If a rapidly growing company can maintain a prudent balance betwe

20、en debt and equity sources, the reliance on external capital creates no problems如果一個(gè)快速成長的公司能維持債務(wù)與股本來源之間的平衡，對(duì)外部資本的依賴不會(huì)帶來任何問題In too many instances, rapid sales growth, coupled with modest profit margins and an inability

21、to sell new equity, forces the company to rely increasingly on bank credit很多情況下，快速的銷售收入增長，加上過低的利潤率以及無力銷售新股權(quán)，會(huì)迫使公司越來越依賴銀行信貸Rapid growth may lead to increasing debt ratios and increasing banker headaches快速的增長可能會(huì)導(dǎo)致負(fù)債率增加，

22、讓銀行家越來越頭痛Two questions to be answered to when contemplating a loan to a rapidly expanding firm:在考慮是否要給一個(gè)快速擴(kuò)張的公司貸款時(shí)，須回答以下兩個(gè)問題：Is the applicant in balance? Given the company’s growth targets and financial policies, will

23、 the company be able to maintain a stable debt ratio over time?申請(qǐng)公司是否能保持各方面的平衡？鑒于公司的增長目標(biāo)和財(cái)務(wù)政策，公司能否一直維持一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的負(fù)債率？When can the bank expect repayment of the loan? Is the requested amount sufficient or is the contemplated l

24、oan likely to be just the downpayment on a much larger commitment?銀行何時(shí)才能期望貸款被償還？申請(qǐng)的貸款金額足夠嗎？或者它只是很大一筆貸款數(shù)額中的首期付款？,,Sustainable Growth Rate (1)可持續(xù)增長率(1),Sustainable growth rate – the annual percentage invcrease in sales w

25、hich is consistent with a stable capital structure可持續(xù)增長率- 銷售增長的年百分比，和一個(gè)穩(wěn)定的資本結(jié)構(gòu)一致,Sustainable Growth可持續(xù)增長,Target Debt Ratio目標(biāo)債務(wù)比率,Target Payout Ratio目標(biāo)派息比率,ProfitMargin利潤率,Capital-OutputRatio資本產(chǎn)出比,,,,,,,,Sustainabl

26、e Growth Rate (2)可持續(xù)增長率(2),p = profit margin on sales P=銷售利潤率d = the target dividend payout ratio => (1-d) is the target retention ratio

27、 d=目標(biāo)派息比率 => (1-d) 為目標(biāo)自留額比率L = the target debt-to-equity ratio L=目標(biāo)負(fù)債股本比t = the capital-output ratio defined as total assets divided by net sales

28、 t=資本產(chǎn)出比，銷售凈值/總資產(chǎn)s = sales at the beginning of the period s=期初的銷售收入Δs = the increase in sales during the year Δs = 年中銷售收入增加值,,,,Assets at the beginning of year年

29、初資產(chǎn),,New assets needed to support increased sales 用于支撐銷售的新資產(chǎn),,,,,Liabilities and owners’ Equity at beginning of year 年初負(fù)債與所有者權(quán)益,,Additions to liabilities負(fù)債增加值,,Additions to Retained Earnings留存收益增加值,Δs(t),,p(s+Δs)(1-d)

30、L,,p(s+Δs)(1-d),,Example: Sustainable Growth Rate in Loan Appraisal舉例：貸款評(píng)估中的可持續(xù)增長率,President of Radar contacts the loan officer at the bank to secure a term loan of $500,000Radar公司總裁親自聯(lián)系銀行信貸員確保能獲得50萬美元的定期貸款Radar’s tar

31、get sales growth rate is 20% per yearRadar的目標(biāo)銷售增長率為每年20%Loan officer fears that the company’s debt ratio will rise steadily in future years and could jeopardize the bank’s position 信貸員擔(dān)心未來幾年公司的負(fù)債率會(huì)穩(wěn)固上升，會(huì)影響銀行的地位,p = .0

32、6, L = 1.20, t = 1.20d = .10,,Short-term lending: What does short-term mean?短期貸款：短期是什么意思？,Under short-term lending, the lender can get paid in the ordinary course of events in the short-term (such as within a year)在短期

33、貸款條件下，貸款人能按照事項(xiàng)的常規(guī)進(jìn)程在短期內(nèi)得到償付（如一年之內(nèi)）The lender is required to have a clear understanding of the working capital adequacy – if permanent working capital is inadequate, slow payment of continuous refinancing beyond a year s

34、hould be anticipated貸款人需要對(duì)營運(yùn)資本充足率有明確的認(rèn)識(shí)——如果永久性營運(yùn)資本不夠，應(yīng)該持續(xù)性地再融資一年以上The elements of appropriate short-term lending include:適當(dāng)?shù)亩唐谫J款的要素包括：Understanding the specific purpose 明白具體目的Structuring the maturity in line with th

35、e primary source of repayment 根據(jù)償還的主要來源設(shè)計(jì)期限的結(jié)構(gòu)Identifying the certainty of secondary sources of repayment implicit in the purpose 確認(rèn)目標(biāo)中已明確的償還的次要來源Evaluating alternative protection available from the balance sheet; and

36、possibly 評(píng)估資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表上存在的其他保護(hù)手段Ensuring access to secondary protection by taking security 通過采取安全措施，確保能夠獲得次級(jí)保護(hù),Characteristics of working capital loans營運(yùn)資本貸款的特征,Seasonal versus Permanent Working Capital Needs運(yùn)營資本的季節(jié)性需求與永久性需

37、求比較All firms need some minimum level of current assets and current liabilities 所有公司都需要最低限度的流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)和流動(dòng)負(fù)債The amount of current assets and current liabilities will vary with seasonal patterns 流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)與流動(dòng)負(fù)債的量因季節(jié)形態(tài)而異Permanent Wor

38、king Capital 永久性營運(yùn)資本The minimum level of current assets minus the minimum level of adjusted current liabilities 最低限度的流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)-最低限度的調(diào)整過的流動(dòng)負(fù)債Adjusted Current Liabilities 調(diào)整后的流動(dòng)負(fù)債Current liabilities net of short-term bank c

39、redit and current maturities of long-term debt 短期銀行信貸的流動(dòng)負(fù)債凈額和長期債務(wù)的一年內(nèi)到期Seasonal Working Capital 季節(jié)性營運(yùn)資本Difference in total current assets and adjusted current liabilities 總流動(dòng)資產(chǎn)與調(diào)整后的流動(dòng)負(fù)債的差異,Dollars美元,Short-Term Commerc

40、ial Loans (1),Open Credit Lines無固定期限信貸Loan is seasonal if the need arises on a regular basis and if the cycle completes itself with one year如果需求是固定的，并且循環(huán)在一年內(nèi)完成的話，貸款是季節(jié)性的Used to purchase raw materials and build up inv

41、entories of finished goods in anticipation of later sales用于采購原材料，累計(jì)成品的庫存以在日后出售It is self-liquidating in the sense that repayment derives from the sale of finished goods that are financed由于償還來自于通過出售融資而得的成品，從這個(gè)意義上說是自償?shù)摹?/p>

42、,Short-Term Commercial Loans (2)短期商業(yè)貸款,Open Credit Lines無固定期限信貸The bank makes a certain amount of funds available to a borrower for a set period of time銀行在固定期限內(nèi)貸給借款人一定數(shù)量的貸款Often used for seasonal loans 通常用在季節(jié)性貸款The

43、 customer determines the timing of the actual borrowings (“takedowns”)客戶決定實(shí)際借款的時(shí)機(jī)Borrowings increase with inventory buildup and decline with the collection of receivables 借款隨著庫存增加而增加，隨著應(yīng)收賬款的收取而下降,Short-Term Commercial

44、 Loans (3)短期商業(yè)貸款,Open Credit Lines無固定期限信貸 Typically require that the loan be fully repaid at least once during each year to confirm that the needs are seasonal通常貸款需要在每年至少完全償還一次來證明需求的季節(jié)性Commitment Fee 承擔(dān)費(fèi)A fee, in a

45、ddition to interest, for making credit available在利息之外，為了得到信貸的一筆費(fèi)用May be based on the entire credit line or on the unborrowed balance可能基于全部信用額度或者基于非借入余額,Short-Term Commercial Loans (4)短期商業(yè)貸款,Asset-Based Loans資產(chǎn)支持貸款Lo

46、ans Secured by Inventories 由庫存擔(dān)保的貸款The security consists of raw materials, goods in process, and finished products.證券包含原材料，正在加工的貨物和成品The value of the inventory depends on the marketability of each component if the bor

47、rower goes out of business庫存的價(jià)值取決于如果借款人破產(chǎn)，每種部件在市場上的銷路.Banks will lend from 40 to 60 percent against raw materials that are common among businesses and finished goods that are marketable, and nothing against unfinished

48、inventory銀行的貸款相當(dāng)于常見原材料和有銷路的成品價(jià)值的40%-60%，不會(huì)針對(duì)未完成的庫存貸款,Short-Term Commercial Loans (5)短期商業(yè)貸款,Asset-Based Loans資產(chǎn)支持貸款Loans Secured by Accounts Receivable由應(yīng)收賬款擔(dān)保的貸款The security consists of paper assets that presumably r

49、epresent sales證券包含假定可以代表銷售的紙資產(chǎn)The quality of the collateral depends on the borrower’s integrity in reporting actual sales and the credibility of billings抵押品的質(zhì)量取決于借款人在申報(bào)實(shí)際銷售時(shí)的誠實(shí)以及賬單的可信度,Short-Term Commercial Loans (6)

50、短期商業(yè)貸款,Asset-Based Loans 資產(chǎn)支持貸款Loans Secured by Accounts Receivable 由應(yīng)收賬款擔(dān)保的貸款A(yù)ccounts Receivable Aging Schedule 應(yīng)收賬款賬齡分析表 List of A/Rs grouped according to the month in which the invoice is dated根據(jù)發(fā)票上的紀(jì)錄的月份，將應(yīng)收賬款的清單

51、分組Lockbox,鎖箱功能 Customer’s mail payments go directly to a P.O. Box controlled by the bank客戶的郵件還款直接到達(dá) 由銀行控制的郵箱The bank processes the payments and reduces the borrower’s balance but charges the borrower for handling the

52、 items銀行處理還款，減少借款人余額，但是向其收取處理項(xiàng)目的費(fèi)用,Short-Term Commercial Loans (7)短期商業(yè)貸款,Revolving Credits循環(huán)信用A hybrid of short-term working capital loans and term loans一種短期運(yùn)營資本貸款和定期貸款的混合Typically involves the commitment of funds

53、for 1 – 5 years 通常包括1到5年的資金的承擔(dān)費(fèi)At the end of some interim period, the outstanding principal converts to a term loan在某些過度期結(jié)尾的時(shí)候，未清償?shù)谋窘疝D(zhuǎn)為定期貸款During the interim period, the borrower determines how much credit to use在某些

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