基于隨機(jī)模擬的潰壩后果多層次模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)

1、華中科技大學(xué)碩士學(xué)位論文基于隨機(jī)模擬的潰壩后果多層次模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)姓名：李東旭申請(qǐng)學(xué)位級(jí)別：碩士專(zhuān)業(yè)：系統(tǒng)分析與集成指導(dǎo)教師：李承軍2011-03-01華 中 科 技 大 學(xué) 碩 士 學(xué) 位 論 文 華 中 科 技 大 學(xué) 碩 士 學(xué) 位 論 文 IIAbstract Since the foundations of P.R. China in 1949, more than 3400 cases of dam breaks have

2、occurred, which bring tremendous casualties and economic losses. According to the statistics, there are more than 80,000 reservoirs in china currently, of which more than 30,000 are seriously dangerous, and the hazard ra

3、te is about 40%. This brings a serious threat to the life and property downstream the dam. Therefore, assessing the consequences of dam break is very important in decreasing the level of risk management, to constitute th

4、e measures for flood prevention and relief, relief materials distribution and floodplain district. Previous researches of dam risk analysis focus on the evaluation of dam break consequences was briefly summarized at firs

5、t, then analyzed and collated the components of dam break consequences. Secondly, life loss model, economic loss and social and environmental impact model were researched, and the comprehensive evaluation index factor of

6、 dam break consequences was determined. At last, the corresponding multi-level structure was established based on the previous study. Considering the complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity of the consequences of dam break

7、, and the insufficiency existing data, as well as the interaction relationship between the evaluation results, the stochastic simulation method was combined with fuzzy synthetic evaluation method in the model. For which,

8、 stochastic simulation method was used to simulate the breach situation of the dam, and get the distributing of the losses, the fuzzy synthetic evaluation method was used to integrate all types of losses into one system

9、to get the seriousness of the consequences of dam failure level. This is the establishment of dam break consequence multi-level fuzzy synthetic evaluation model based on stochastic simulation. Finally, the case study of