如何進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈分析

1、Sep, 2005,如何進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈分析,,什么是產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈？,什么是產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈？,價(jià)值鏈?zhǔn)瞧髽I(yè)為客戶創(chuàng)造價(jià)值的一系列經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的總稱。,價(jià)值鏈可以分為：1、上下游關(guān)聯(lián)企業(yè)與企業(yè)之間的行業(yè)價(jià)值鏈（即產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈）；2、企業(yè)內(nèi)部各業(yè)務(wù)單元的聯(lián)系構(gòu)成企業(yè)內(nèi)部的價(jià)值鏈；,如何分析產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈？,,,,該產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的商業(yè)模式,影響該產(chǎn)業(yè)的KSF,預(yù)期產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展趨勢,2G和2.5G時(shí)代的移動通信產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,手機(jī)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)的制定,R&D,手機(jī)生產(chǎn)商,渠道商,移動用戶,,移動通

2、信網(wǎng)絡(luò),C,C,H,3G時(shí)代的移動通信產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)系統(tǒng),,Case 1:VoIP產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈分析,,設(shè)計(jì),,制造,,掩模,,封裝,,測試,,晶圓,,化學(xué)品,,基板,,,設(shè)備儀器,,,CAD/CAE,,,材料,,,資金/人力,,,,,,,,,,,,Case 2:集成電路（IC）行業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,設(shè)計(jì),制造,封裝測試,,資金,,技術(shù),,人力,,高,低,不同環(huán)節(jié)對資源要求的差異,,,,,產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈的全球分工,

3、設(shè)計(jì)行業(yè)集中分布在美國、歐洲制造行業(yè)亞洲比例較大，歐美也有分布封裝測試行業(yè) 基本分布在亞洲，尤其大陸和臺灣,,,,設(shè)計(jì),15%,制造,35%,封裝測試,50%,,,,設(shè)計(jì),16%,制造,60%,封裝測試,24%,大陸與臺灣不同環(huán)節(jié)所占比例區(qū)別,大陸,臺灣,不同環(huán)節(jié)需求差異與KSF,設(shè)計(jì)業(yè),,創(chuàng)新能力自主知識產(chǎn)權(quán)識別有潛力的市場,制造業(yè),,封裝測試業(yè),低成本（高產(chǎn)能、大晶圓）高良率工藝進(jìn)程技術(shù)服務(wù),低成本服務(wù),

4、差異化需求,高同質(zhì)化需求,同質(zhì)化需求,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,35,13,260,0,50,100,150,200,250,300,封裝測試,制造,設(shè)計(jì),不同環(huán)節(jié)企業(yè)數(shù)量差異明顯,2004年臺灣IC企業(yè)數(shù)量,不同環(huán)節(jié)集中度差距明顯,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,0%,10%,20%,30%,40%,50%,60%,70%,80%,90%,100%,設(shè)計(jì),制造,封裝測試,2004年世界IC企業(yè)集中度,,,top3,

5、,top10,產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈附加值——微笑曲線——PC,,,附加值,部件,組合,分銷,,品牌渠道,技術(shù)制造規(guī)模,地區(qū)性競爭按區(qū)域分隔,全球性競爭按產(chǎn)品分隔,PC行業(yè)的微笑曲線,產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈附加值——微笑曲線——IC,產(chǎn)業(yè)鏈附加值——微笑曲線——foundry,附加值,DRAM產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)圖,Samsung,Hynix,Micron,Infineon,DRAM Component Vendor,Distributor,Mosel,etc,Comp

6、onent Distributor,In House:Samsung, Micron,Out Sourcing:Winbond.Nanya,Direct Captive Manufacturing,Kingston,Kingmax,A-Data,Subassembly DRAM Module,HP,Dell,Lenovo,Sun,System Company,OEM,Trader,Broker,Channel Reseller,PC

7、relative retailer,End User,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Semi-contract,,Spot,,Inventory Adjustment,,Contract,,DRAM Component and Module Delivering Flow,,DRAM產(chǎn)業(yè)生態(tài)圖(cont),,Semi-contract ： Long-term relationship with a no

8、n-guarantee forecast and comparing big volume than spot market. Price is more following spot price with more flexible discount.,,Spot ：Trading on the open market by variable price and volume. Volume usually is relative s

9、mall.,,Inventory Adjustment ：Adjusting the over-booking inventory or spare parts.,,Contract ：Long-term relationship with whole year volume-forecast and commitment. Price be negotiated twice a month.,Different type of dis

10、tribution,80％,20％,Contract Market,Spot Market,Usually around 80% distributions are contract based,and around 20% trades are on the spot market. Spot price usually rises/falls greater and faster than contract price does.