我國貨幣政策效應時滯與中介目標選擇.pdf

1、天津財經大學碩士學位論文我國貨幣政策效應時滯與中介目標選擇姓名：徐坤申請學位級別：碩士專業(yè)：數量經濟學指導教師：李臘生20080501AbstractwithinitiallyestablishedthefunctioningframeworkforChinasmarketeconomysystem，thewayofmacroeconomiccontrolalsohastherelevantchange，whichlsmainlyind

2、irectcontroIofmacro—controlpatternformationofmonetarypolicysomonetarypolicyisplayingmoreandmoreimportantroleinthemacroeconomicregulationandcontr01ItdependsonseveraIreasonstoachievethedesiredtargetofmonetarypolicysimpleme

3、ntationOneofthemajorreasonsfortheeffectsofmonetarypolicyis“TimeLag。Inrealitythepolicy。seffectactuallycannotappearimmediatelybecauseitispresentaperiodoftimeintervaIthatisthetimelagofmonetarypolicyTimelagoftenchanges，soits

4、presentincreasestheriskofmonetarypolicymacrocontr01Itbecomesmoredi仟icultforCentraIBanktodothesuitabletestpromptlytomonetarypolicyTherefore，theresearchofmonetarypolicytimeIagcouldcontributetothetheoreticaIreferenceofmonet

5、arypolicye仟ciencyMeanwhile，atChina’stransition，howtorealizeandgrasptheoutsidetimeIagineffectofmonetarypolicyandhowtochooseappropriateintermediatetargettomonitortheimpactoftheimplementationofmonetarypolicyforimprovingthee

6、fficiencyofpolicymacroeconomiccontrol，keepingpricestabilityandpromotingeconomicdevelopmenthasanimportantpracticalsignificanceFrommacropointofviewthispaperusestWOimportantconductionchanneIofmonetarypolicy—monetarychannela

7、ndcreditchanneItodotheexperiencedanalysisoftimelagineffectofmonetarypolicyIttakesnarrowsenseofmonetarysupplyM1marketinterestrateR，creditscaleLoanandothersasvariabletobuildVARmodeItoexplaineconomicoutputandprices，gainsthe

8、totaIeconomicoutputimpulseresponsefunctioncausedbymonetarypolicyofadjustment，summarizetheskilIofvariancedecomposition，andthengetstheimportantfactorofaffectingtheoutsidetimeIagineffectofmonetarypolicyAccordingtotherelevan

9、tprinciples，wechooseoneofthoseeconomicvariables，whichhastheshortertimeoftimelagandtheIargercontributionofvariablewithfinaIeconomicoutputandpricestargetasmonetarypolicyintermediatetarget，itexaminestherationalityoftakingM1

10、astheintermediatetargetIntheend，thispapertakesdynamiccomparisonandanalysistesearchtheappropriateanswerofthecontroversiaIquestioninnationaIacademiccircle，whichis“Nowadays，isitessentiaItoturntheactivepolicyM1intoefficiency

11、ofmonetarypolicyintermediatetargetTheempiricalresultshowsthat，duringthereaIconductionofmonetarypolicyinChinaM1displaysthebettereffectinthefieldofbothtimelagineffectandvariancecontributionsoitisarathersuitableintermediate

12、targetinrecentyearsIncontractthecreditchanneIhaspoorperformance，becauseofthecreditscalecontributiontothefinaItargetisiustalittle，soltcanbeconsideredastheunsuitableintermediatetargetItconformstotherealityofmonetarypolicyi

13、ntermediatetargetattheendof20centuryjnChinaTheresultofdynamicanalysisindicatesthat，withdeepeningoftheopenpolicycontinuouslytheabilityofM1asthemonetarypolicyintermediatetargetisloweringandtheefficiencyofintermediatetarget